Exchange-rate Uncertainty and Foreign-trade

The article is a published version of EUI ECO WP; 1987/30

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies

Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3–7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease

O efeito da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio sobre o comércio internacional: uma investigação empírica sob a ótica da margem extensiva

O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar o efeito da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio sobre a margem extensiva do comércio internacional. Em termos metodológicos, definiu-se como margem extensiva do comércio internacional o número de produtos exportados pelos países para os seus parceiros comerciais. Posteriormente, essa variável foi inserida como dependente em um modelo gravitacional de comércio, cujos parâmetros foram estimados pela técnica de dados em painel não linear. O período de análise compreendido no presente trabalho foi de 1995 a 2009, e o número de países considerados no estudo foi 54. Os principais resultados indicaram que uma elevação na volatilidade da taxa de câmbio causa uma redução na margem extensiva do comércio internacional, reduzindo a diversificação da pauta de exportação dos países