Evaluating the efficiencies of alternative energy resources for electricity generation in Turkey

Birden çok girdi ve çıktıya sahip karar birimlerinin göreli performanslarının ölçülmesi için kullanılan klasik Veri Zarflama Analizi (VZA) modellerinde yalnızca kesin sayısal veriler kullanılabilir. Oysa gerçek hayattaki birçok uygulamada karar birimlerinin kullanıldığı girdiler ve ürettiği çıktılar belirsiz, aralıklar halinde veya sözel olarak ifade edilmiş olabilir. Enerji kaynak alternatiflerinin etkinlik analizindeki uzman görüşleri sözel olarak, maliyet girdisi de belirsiz olduğu için bulanık sayılarla ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de elektrik üretimi için kullanılabilecek enerji kaynak alternatiflerinin etkinliğinin ölçülmesi için Bulanık VZA (BVZA) kullanılmıştır. Makalede, Charnes vd. (1978) tarafından geliştirilen klasik VZA modelinin (CCR modeli) dual formunu temel alan yeni bir bulanık VZA formülasyonu (Dual Bulanık Veri Zarflama analizi–DBVZA) önerilmektedir. Bulanık model, α-kesmeleri yaklaşımı kullanılarak doğrusallaştırılmıştır. DBVZA modelinde, diğer bulanık VZA modellerinden farklı olarak, Karar Birimlerinin (KB) etkinliği ölçülürken, bulanık girdi ve çıktı değerlerinin α-kesmelerinin uç noktaları yerine, tüm α-kesmeleri performans ölçümünde kullanılmakta ve böylelikle aralığın içindeki verilerin de etkinlik analizinde dikkate alınması sağlanmaktadır. DBVZA’nın karar vericilere sağladığı bir diğer avantaj, tüm α seviyelerinde etkinlik sınırında yer alan, bir başka deyişle %100 etkin olan KB sayısının diğer bulanık VZA yöntemlerine göre düşük olmasıdır. Bu durum KB’lerin etkinliklerine göre sıralanmasını kolaylaştırmaktadır. Ayrıca DBVZA ile yapılan uygulamalarda karar birimlerinin etkinliklerine göre sıralanabilmesi için herhangi bir bulanık sıralama yöntemine ihtiyaç duyulmamaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Veri zarflama analizi, bulanık matematik programlama, etkinlik analizi, enerji alternatifleri, elektrik üretimi.With the beginning of 21st century, the consumption of energy all over the world is increasing far more rapidly than in the last century. Today, energy is the most important basic input for economical and industrial development. Especially for developing countries like Turkey, alternative energy resources for power plants have very high strategic importance. In Turkey, like many other countries, the generation of electric power is based on fossil fuels. The volatility of oil prices, the exhaustibility of fossil fuels and environmental issues force developing industries to revise their alternatives for electricity generation. Now, it is the time to give more attention to stable, reliable and non-polluting energy resources. Most forms of alternative energy resources are dependent on geographical and environmental factors which vary from country to country. Every country has to determine its energy policy considering its specific conditions like demand and supply equilibrium, dependency on other countries, geographical conditions, variations of population, etc.Turkey is a country that lacks sufficient conventional energy resources and is importing oil and natural gas from other countries. As an emerging country, Turkey has been one of the fastest growing energy markets in the world. Turkey's share in total OECD production is expected to increase from 2% in 1995 to 7% in 2020s, making Turkey a significant economic power within the OECD countries but this will be possible only with a proper energy policy and efficient selection of alternative energy resources. Selecting among different resource alternatives is a very difficult task as the factors which affect the efficiency of energy resources are imprecise and require expert knowledge. The criteria, such as sustainability, security etc. are defined in linguistic form as it is impossible to quantify them. As a result, some of the criteria of efficiency have to be introduced in analysis as fuzzy data. The performance assessment methods which enable us to use fuzzy inputs and outputs are suitable for the evaluation of energy alternatives efficiencies. The potentially viable electricity resources considered for Turkey are oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, solar power and biomass power. For the evaluation criteria of these energy resources and their values, we refer to expert opinions. The details about efficiency criteria and results of the analysis can be found in the application. The energy resources are ranked by their efficiency scores as follows: Wind, natural gas, hydropower, biomass, coal, oil, solar power and nuclear power. The existing data envelopment analysis (DEA) models for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) using various inputs to produce various outputs are limited to crisp data.  However, the data acquired from expert opinions for evaluating the efficiencies of alternative energy resources is generally in linguistic form. This paper proposes a fuzzy DEA formulation based on dual form of the DEA model developed by Charnes et al. (1978) to deal with imprecise or linguistic data that we frequently come across in real-world applications. The model is transformed into a family of crisp linear problems using the "-cut approach. In dual fuzzy DEA formulation, the entire "-cut interval is taken into account unlike many other fuzzy DEA formulations which use the boundary points of "-cuts when calculating the efficiency scores of DMUs. Dual fuzzy DEA is suitable to rank every DMU in all "-levels as we are not faced with the problem of having too many DMUs on the efficient frontier. Another advantage of the dual fuzzy DEA formulation is that, it does not require any fuzzy ranking method to rank the DMUs. As the result, dual fuzzy DEA can be very useful in performance evaluation, especially when decision makers or researchers have few DMUs and a large number of decision criteria (inputs and outputs) as they will be able to rank all DMUs according their efficiency scores. The paper is organized as follows: A literature survey of fuzzy DEA models is followed by the presentation of the classical DEA model (CCR formulation), dual form of the CCR formulation and fuzzy DEA model. Then, the linearization of dual fuzzy DEA by ?-cut approach and variable alterations is introduced. After a real life application concerning the assessment of energy alternatives for electricity production in Turkey, the paper ends with the conclusion. Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, fuzzy mathematical programming, efficiency analysis, energy alternatives, electricity generation

Maintained physical activity and physiotherapy in the management of distal upper limb pain – a protocol for a randomised controlled trial (the arm pain trial)

<b>Background</b><p></p> Distal upper limb pain (pain affecting the elbow, forearm, wrist, or hand) can be non-specific, or can arise from specific musculoskeletal disorders. It is clinically important and costly, the best approach to clinical management is unclear. Physiotherapy is the standard treatment and, while awaiting treatment, advice is often given to rest and avoid strenuous activities, but there is no evidence base to support these strategies. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trial to determine, among patients awaiting physiotherapy for distal arm pain, (a) whether advice to remain active and maintain usual activities results in a long-term reduction in arm pain and disability, compared with advice to rest; and (b) whether immediate physiotherapy results in a long-term reduction in arm pain and disability, compared with physiotherapy delivered after a seven week waiting list period.<p></p> <b>Methods/Design</b><p></p> Between January 2012 and January 2014, new referrals to 14 out-patient physiotherapy departments were screened for potential eligibility. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly allocated to one of the following three groups in equal numbers: 1) advice to remain active, 2) advice to rest, 3) immediate physiotherapy. Patients were and followed up at 6, 13, and 26 weeks post-randomisation by self-complete postal questionnaire and, at six weeks, patients who had not received physiotherapy were offered it at this time. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients free of disability at 26 weeks, as determined by the modified DASH (Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand) questionnaire.<p></p> We hypothesise (a) that advice to maintain usual activities while awaiting physiotherapy will be superior than advice to rest the arm; and (b) that fast-track physiotherapy will be superior to normal (waiting list) physiotherapy. These hypotheses will be examined using an intention-to-treat analysis.<p></p> <b>Discussion</b><p></p> Results from this trial will contribute to the evidence base underpinning the clinical management of patients with distal upper limb pain, and in particular, will provide guidance on whether they should be advised to rest the arm or remain active within the limits imposed by their symptoms

Interaction between Dietary Fat Intake and Metabolic Genetic Risk Score on 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations in a Turkish Adult Population

From MDPI via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2022-01-14, pub-electronic 2022-01-17Publication status: PublishedFunder: Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey; Grant(s): 216S272Previous studies have pointed out a link between vitamin D status and metabolic traits, however, consistent evidence has not been provided yet. This cross-sectional study has used a nutrigenetic approach to investigate the interaction between metabolic-genetic risk score (GRS) and dietary intake on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in 396 unrelated Turkish adults, aged 24−50 years. Serum 25(OH)D concentration was significantly lower in those with a metabolic-GRS ≥ 1 risk allele than those with a metabolic-GRS 1 risk allele (p = 0.020). A significant interaction between metabolic-GRS and dietary fat intake (energy%) on serum 25(OH)D levels was identified (Pinteraction = 0.040). Participants carrying a metabolic-GRS ≥ 1 risk allele and consuming a high fat diet (≥38% of energy = 122.3 ± 52.51 g/day) had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D concentration (p = 0.006) in comparison to those consuming a low-fat diet (38% of energy = 82.5 ± 37.36 g/d). In conclusion, our study suggests a novel interaction between metabolic-GRS and dietary fat intake on serum 25(OH)D level, which emphasises that following the current dietary fat intake recommendation (35% total fat) could be important in reducing the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in this Turkish population. Nevertheless, further larger studies are needed to verify this interaction, before implementing personalized dietary recommendations for the maintenance of optimal vitamin D status

Interaction between dietary fat intake and metabolic genetic risk score on 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in a Turkish adult population

Previous studies have pointed out a link between vitamin D status and metabolic traits, however, consistent evidence has not been provided yet. This cross-sectional study has used a nutrigenetic approach to investigate the interaction between metabolic-genetic risk score (GRS) and dietary intake on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in 396 unrelated Turkish adults, aged 24–50 years. Serum 25(OH)D concentration was significantly lower in those with a metabolic-GRS ≥ 1 risk allele than those with a metabolic-GRS < 1 risk allele (p = 0.020). A significant interaction between metabolic-GRS and dietary fat intake (energy%) on serum 25(OH)D levels was identified (Pinteraction = 0.040). Participants carrying a metabolic-GRS ≥ 1 risk allele and consuming a high fat diet (≥38% of energy = 122.3 ± 52.51 g/day) had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D concentration (p = 0.006) in comparison to those consuming a low-fat diet (<38% of energy = 82.5 ± 37.36 g/d). In conclusion, our study suggests a novel interaction between metabolic-GRS and dietary fat intake on serum 25(OH)D level, which emphasises that following the current dietary fat intake recommendation (<35% total fat) could be important in reducing the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in this Turkish population. Nevertheless, further larger studies are needed to verify this interaction, before implementing personalized dietary recommendations for the maintenance of optimal vitamin D status

Musculoskeletal disorders in shipyard industry: prevalence, health care use, and absenteeism

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the well-known risk factors for the occurrence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) also play an important role in the determining consequences of MSD in terms of sickness absence and health care use. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 853 shipyard employees. Data were collected by questionnaire on physical and psychosocial workload, need for recovery, perceived general health, occurrence of musculoskeletal complaints, and health care use during the past year. Retrospective data on absenteeism were also available from the company register. RESULTS: In total, 37%, 22%, and 15% of employees reported complaints of low back, shoulder/neck, and hand/wrist during the past 12 months, respectively. Among all employees with at least one MSD, 27% visited a physician at least once and 20% took at least one period of sick leave. Various individual and work-related factors were associated with the occurrence of MSD. Health care use and absenteeism were strongest influenced by chronicity of musculoskeletal complaints and comorbidity with other musculoskeletal complaints and, to a lesser extent, by work-related factors. CONCLUSION: In programmes aimed at preventing the unfavourable consequences of MSD in terms of sickness absence and health care use it is important to identify the (individual) factors that determine the development of chronicity of complaints. These factors may differ from the well-know risk factors for the occurrence of MSD that are targeted in primary prevention

The history of falls and the association of the timed up and go test to falls and near-falls in older adults with hip osteoarthritis

Abstract Background Falling accounts for a significant number of hospital and long-term care admissions in older adults. Many adults with the combination of advancing age and functional decline associated with lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA), are at an even greater risk. The purpose of this study was to describe fall and near-fall history, location, circumstances and injuries from falls in a community-dwelling population of adults over aged 65 with hip OA and to determine the ability of the timed up and go test (TUG) to classify fallers and near-fallers. Method A retrospective observational study of 106 older men and women with hip pain for six months or longer, meeting a clinical criteria for the presence of hip OA at one or both hips. An interview for fall and near-fall history and administration of the TUG were administered on one occasion. Results Forty-five percent of the sample had at least one fall in the past year, seventy-seven percent reported occasional or frequent near-falls. The majority of falls occurred during ambulation and ascending or descending steps. Forty percent experienced an injury from the fall. The TUG was not associated with history of falls, but was associated with near-falls. Higher TUG scores occurred for those who were older, less mobile, and with greater number of co-morbidities. Conclusion A high percentage of older adults with hip OA experience falls and near-falls which may be attributed to gait impairments related to hip OA. The TUG could be a useful screening instrument to predict those who have frequent near-falls, and thus might be useful in predicting risk of future falls in this population.</p

Understanding the nature and mechanism of foot pain

Approximately one-quarter of the population are affected by foot pain at any given time. It is often disabling and can impair mood, behaviour, self-care ability and overall quality of life. Currently, the nature and mechanism underlying many types of foot pain is not clearly understood. Here we comprehensively review the literature on foot pain, with specific reference to its definition, prevalence, aetiology and predictors, classification, measurement and impact. We also discuss the complexities of foot pain as a sensory, emotional and psychosocial experience in the context of clinical practice, therapeutic trials and the placebo effect. A deeper understanding of foot pain is needed to identify causal pathways, classify diagnoses, quantify severity, evaluate long term implications and better target clinical intervention