A Detailed Hydro-Economic Model for Assessing the Effects of Surface Water and Groundwater Policies: A Demonstration Model from Brazil

Policymakers, managers of water use associations, and many others in developing countries are considering policy actions that will directly or indirectly change the costs and availability of groundwater and surface water for agricultural users. While in many cases such actions may bring about welcomed increases in water use efficiency, little is known about the likely effects of changes in irrigation costs or water access on farmer behavior, or on farmer incomes in the short or long runs, and virtually nothing is known about the detailed immediate or knock-on effects on water resources that such policy actions might cause. This paper reports the preliminary results of research aiming to fill these large scientific gaps by developing a detailed hydrologic model and a detailed economic model of agriculture in the context of the Buriti Vermelho (BV) sub-catchment area of the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil. A spatially explicit, farm-level, positive mathematical programming model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is being developed to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors water use patterns on agricultural production. Special attention is given to precisely defining and estimating the distinct variable costs (including labor and electrical energy costs) and capital costs of surface water and groundwater, which are considered perfect substitutes for irrigation. Shadow values for non-marketed inputs (land, family labor, and water) are estimated in the first step of the modeling process. A high-resolution, spatially distributed hydrologic model (MOD-HMS) is being developed to simulate three-dimensional, variably-saturated subsurface flow and solute transport. Subsurface flow is simulated using the three-dimensional Richards equation while accounting for a) application of water at the surface, b) precipitation, c) soil evaporation and crop transpiration, and d) agricultural pumping. Demonstration versions of both models are presented and tested: the economic model assesses the effects of increasing water scarcity on cultivated area, crop mix, input mix and farm profits; the hydrologic model uses two irrigation water use scenarios to demonstrate the effects of each on surface water flows and storage, and on groundwater storage and well depth. The models are not currently linked, but a detailed plan to do so is presented and discussed. The paper concludes by discussing next steps in research and policy simulations.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Two to tango: A dyadic analysis of links between borderline personality traits and intimate partner violence

Although research has shown links between borderline personality and intimate partner violence (IPV), few studies have examined how each partner’s personality traits may influence the other’s behavior(Hines, 2008). This study incorporated dimensional assessments of borderline personality organization (BPO) in both partners into a dyadic model that examined associations with IPV. In a community sample of 109 couples, Actor-Partner Interdependence Modeling was used to examine links between BPO traits in each partner and victimization and perpetration of IPV. Men’s level of BPO traits was associated with more IPV towards and more victimization by their partners. Women’s level of BPO traits was associated with their victimization only. This study is unique in examining links between BPO and IPV in couples using analyses that account for the interdependence of these variables in dyads

Coastal development and precipitation drive pathogen flow from land to sea: evidence from a Toxoplasma gondii and felid host system

Rapidly developing coastal regions face consequences of land use and climate change including flooding and increased sediment, nutrient, and chemical runoff, but these forces may also enhance pathogen runoff, which threatens human, animal, and ecosystem health. Using the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii in California, USA as a model for coastal pathogen pollution, we examine the spatial distribution of parasite runoff and the impacts of precipitation and development on projected pathogen delivery to the ocean. Oocysts, the extremely hardy free-living environmental stage of T. gondii shed in faeces of domestic and wild felids, are carried to the ocean by freshwater runoff. Linking spatial pathogen loading and transport models, we show that watersheds with the highest levels of oocyst runoff align closely with regions of increased sentinel marine mammal T. gondii infection. These watersheds are characterized by higher levels of coastal development and larger domestic cat populations. Increases in coastal development and precipitation independently raised oocyst delivery to the ocean (average increases of 44% and 79%, respectively), but dramatically increased parasite runoff when combined (175% average increase). Anthropogenic changes in landscapes and climate can accelerate runoff of diverse pathogens from terrestrial to aquatic environments, influencing transmission to people, domestic animals, and wildlife

The enpp4 ectonucleotidase regulates kidney patterning signalling networks in Xenopus embryos

Abstract The enpp ectonucleotidases regulate lipidic and purinergic signalling pathways by controlling the extracellular concentrations of purines and bioactive lipids. Although both pathways are key regulators of kidney physiology and linked to human renal pathologies, their roles during nephrogenesis remain poorly understood. We previously showed that the pronephros was a major site of enpp expression and now demonstrate an unsuspected role for the conserved vertebrate enpp4 protein during kidney formation in Xenopus . Enpp4 over-expression results in ectopic renal tissues and, on rare occasion, complete mini-duplication of the entire kidney. Enpp4 is required and sufficient for pronephric markers expression and regulates the expression of RA, Notch and Wnt pathway members. Enpp4 is a membrane protein that binds, without hydrolyzing, phosphatidylserine and its effects are mediated by the receptor s1pr5, although not via the generation of S1P. Finally, we propose a novel and non-catalytic mechanism by which lipidic signalling regulates nephrogenesis

Coastal development and precipitation drive pathogen flow from land to sea: evidence from a Toxoplasma gondii and felid host system

Rapidly developing coastal regions face consequences of land use and climate change including flooding and increased sediment, nutrient, and chemical runoff, but these forces may also enhance pathogen runoff, which threatens human, animal, and ecosystem health. Using the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii in California, USA as a model for coastal pathogen pollution, we examine the spatial distribution of parasite runoff and the impacts of precipitation and development on projected pathogen delivery to the ocean. Oocysts, the extremely hardy free-living environmental stage of T. gondii shed in faeces of domestic and wild felids, are carried to the ocean by freshwater runoff. Linking spatial pathogen loading and transport models, we show that watersheds with the highest levels of oocyst runoff align closely with regions of increased sentinel marine mammal T. gondii infection. These watersheds are characterized by higher levels of coastal development and larger domestic cat populations. Increases in coastal development and precipitation independently raised oocyst delivery to the ocean (average increases of 44% and 79%, respectively), but dramatically increased parasite runoff when combined (175% average increase). Anthropogenic changes in landscapes and climate can accelerate runoff of diverse pathogens from terrestrial to aquatic environments, influencing transmission to people, domestic animals, and wildlife