Trophic ecology of blue whiting in the Barents Sea

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) are distributed throughout the North Atlantic, including the Norwegian and Barents Seas. In recent years, both abundance and distribution of blue whiting in the Barents Sea have increased dramatically. Therefore, to evaluate the trophic impact of this increase, we analysed the diet of the species. In all, 54 prey species or taxa were identified, the main prey being krill. However, the diet varied geographically and ontogenetically: the proportion of fish in the diet was higher in large blue whiting and in the north of the range. Blue whiting overlap geographically with other pelagic species at the edge of their distribution in the Barents Sea, with juvenile herring in the south, with polar cod in the north, and with capelin in the northeast. The overlap in diet between blue whiting and these other pelagic species ranged from 6 to 86% and was greatest with capelin in areas where both species feed on hyperiids and krill. The importance of blue whiting as prey for predatory fish was highest in the areas of greatest abundance, but overall, blue whiting were seemingly unimportant as prey of piscivorous fish in the Barents Sea

Electrocardiographic biomarkers for detection of drug-induced late sodium current block

Background Drugs that prolong the heart rate corrected QT interval (QTc) on the electrocardiogram (ECG) by blocking the hERG potassium channel and also block inward currents (late sodium or L-type calcium) are not associated with torsade de pointes (e.g. ranolazine and verapamil). Thus, identifying ECG signs of late sodium current block could aid in the determination of proarrhythmic risk for new drugs. A new cardiac safety paradigm for drug development (the ''CiPA'' initiative) will involve the preclinical assessment of multiple human cardiac ion channels and ECG biomarkers are needed to determine if there are unexpected ion channel effects in humans. Methods and Results In this study we assess the ability of eight ECG morphology biomarkers to detect late sodium current block in the presence of QTc prolongation by analyzing a clinical trial where a selective hERG potassium channel blocker (dofetilide) was administered alone and then in combination with two late sodium current blockers (lidocaine and mexiletine). We demonstrate that late sodium current block has the greatest effect on the heart-rate corrected JTpeak interval (J-Tpeakc), followed by QTc and then T-wave flatness. Furthermore, J-Tpeakc is the only biomarker that improves detection of the presence of late sodium current block compared to using QTc alone (AUC: 0.83 vs. 0.72 respectively, p<0.001). Conclusions Analysis of the J-Tpeakc interval can differentiate drug-induced multichannel block involving the late sodium current from selective hERG potassium channel block. Future methodologies assessing drug effects on cardiac ion channel currents on the ECG should use J-Tpeakc to detect the presence of late sodium current block

Sex differences in drug-induced changes in ventricular repolarization

Introduction: Heart rate corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation is a predictor of drug-induced torsade de pointes, a potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmia that disproportionately affects women. This study assesses whether there are sex differences in the ECG changes induced by four different hERG potassium channel blocking drugs. Methods and results: Twenty-two healthy subjects (11 women) received a single oral dose of dofetilide, quinidine, ranolazine, verapamil and placebo in a double-blind 5-period crossover study. ECGs and plasma drug concentrations were obtained at pre-dose and at 15 time-points post-dose. Dofetilide, quinidine and ranolazine prolonged QTc. There were no sex differences in QTc prolongation for any drug, after accounting for differences in exposure. Sex differences in any ECG biomarker were observed only with dofetilide, which caused greater J-Tpeakc prolongation (p=0.045) but lesser Tpeak-Tend prolongation (p=0.006) and lesser decrease of T wave amplitude (p=0.003) in women compared to men. Conclusions: There were no sex differences in QTc prolongation for any of the studied drugs. Moreover, no systematic sex differences in other drug-induced ECG biomarker changes were observed in this study. This study suggests that the higher torsade risk in women compared to men is not due to a larger concentration-dependent QTc prolongation

Comprehensive T wave Morphology Assessment in a Randomized Clinical Study of Dofetilide, Quinidine, Ranolazine, and Verapamil

Background Congenital long QT syndrome type 2 (abnormal hERG potassium channel) patients can develop flat, asymmetric, and notched T waves. Similar observations have been made with a limited number of hERG-blocking drugs. However, it is not known how additional calcium or late sodium block, that can decrease torsade risk, affects T wave morphology. Methods and Results Twenty-two healthy subjects received a single dose of a pure hERG blocker (dofetilide) and 3 drugs that also block calcium or sodium (quinidine, ranolazine, and verapamil) as part of a 5-period, placebo-controlled cross-over trial. At pre-dose and 15 time-points post-dose, ECGs and plasma drug concentration were assessed. Patch clamp experiments were performed to assess block of hERG, calcium (L-type) and late sodium currents for each drug. Pure hERG block (dofetilide) and strong hERG block with lesser calcium and late sodium block (quinidine) caused substantial T wave morphology changes (P<0.001). Strong late sodium current and hERG block (ranolazine) still caused T wave morphology changes (P<0.01). Strong calcium and hERG block (verapamil) did not cause T wave morphology changes. At equivalent QTc prolongation, multichannel blockers (quinidine and ranolazine) caused equal or greater T wave morphology changes compared with pure hERG block (dofetilide). Conclusions T wave morphology changes are directly related to amount of hERG block; however, with quinidine and ranolazine, multichannel block did not prevent T wave morphology changes. A combined approach of assessing multiple ion channels, along with ECG intervals and T wave morphology may provide the greatest insight into drug-ion channel interactions and torsade de pointes risk

Use of Advanced Flexible Modeling Approaches for Survival Extrapolation from Early Follow-up Data in two Nivolumab Trials in Advanced NSCLC with Extended Follow-up

Objectives: Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs—landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)—were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs. Results: For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed [3-y DBL]). Conclusions: We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up. Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up. Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes. Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data. Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting. Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup

Survival trends in patients diagnosed with colon and rectal cancer in the nordic countries 1990-2016 : The NORDCAN survival studies

Background: Survival of patients with colon and rectal cancer has improved in all Nordic countries during the past decades. The aim of this study was to further assess survival trends in patients with colon and rectal cancer in the Nordic countries by age at diagnosis and to present additional survival measures. Methods: Data on colon and rectal cancer cases diagnosed in the Nordic countries between 1990 and 2016 were obtained from the NORDCAN database. Relative survival was estimated using flexible parametric models. Both age-standardized and age-specific measures for women and men were estimated from the models, as well as reference-adjusted crude probabilities of death and life-years lost. Results: The five-year age-standardized relative survival of colon and rectal cancer patients continued to improve for women and men in all Nordic countries, from around 50% in 1990 to about 70% at the end of the study period. In general, survival was similar across age and sex. The largest improvement was seen for Danish men and women with rectal cancer, from 41% to 69% and from 43% to 71%, respectively. The age-standardized and reference-adjusted five-year crude probability of death in colon cancer ranged from 30% to 36% across countries, and for rectal cancer from 20% to 33%. The average number of age-standardized and reference-adjusted life-years lost ranged between six and nine years. Conclusion: There were substantial improvements in colon and rectal cancer survival in all Nordic countries 1990-2016. Of special note is that the previously observed survival disadvantage in Denmark is no longer present. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe