Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first scenario, we assume that the enforcement of the land-use reserve in Brazil remains at historically observed levels, and that abundant additional land can be readily incorporated into production. The second scenario involves implementing the same exogenous biofuel demand shock but with a different responsiveness in area expansion to price signals in Brazil, reflecting varying plausible assumptions on land availability for agricultural expansion. The third scenario, which is similar to the first scenario but with a larger increase in global ethanol demand, is run to check whether increasing volume of ethanol requires the incorporation of additional quantities of land per unit of ethanol. We find that, within Brazil, the expansion occurs mostly in the Southeast region. Additionally, total sugarcane area expansion in Brazil is higher than the increase in overall area used for agriculture. This implies that part of the sugarcane expansion displaced other crops and pasture that is not replaced, which suggests some intensification in land use. The lower land expansion elasticities in the second scenario result in a smaller expansion of area used for agricultural activities. A higher proportion of the expansion in sugarcane area occurs at the expense of pasture area, which implied land intensification of beef production. This explains the small change in commodity prices observed between the first and second scenarios. These results suggest that reducing the overall responsiveness of Brazilian agriculture may limit the land-use changes brought about by biofuel expansion, which would in turn reduce its environmental impacts in terms of land expansion. Additionally, the impacts on food prices are limited because of the ability of local producers to increase the intensity of land use in both crop (by double cropping and raising yields) and livestock production (by increasing the number of heads of cattle per hectare of pasture or stocking rate) releases area that can be used for crops. In scenario three, we find that larger ethanol volumes did not require more land per unit of ethanol. Doubling the demand for ethanol does not change the results, which indicates that the limit for intensification is beyond the 50% expansion assumed in Scenario 3. In this range, the same amount of land is incorporated into production per additional unit of ethanol.Biofuels, Brazil, land use, Land Economics/Use,

Indicators for the assessment of social resilience in flood-affected communities – A text mining-based methodology

This work turns the social resilience concept into a practical and tangible set of dimensions and indicators for social resilience assessment. It further provides an analysis of the social resilience concept in the context of flood risk governance. Floods are a worldwide recurring phenomenon that causes severe social, economic and environmental losses. In the context of global change, it is very difficult to accurately predict extreme events that may increase disaster frequency; hence the implementation of social resilience is essential to lessen the losses. Indeed, the right balance between natural and social factors and indicators is yet to be found. Social resilience has been debated extensively for decades, both in scientific and political contexts. It has been a concern in disaster risk reduction and risk governance fields, both of which have strived to implement it. The enlarged conceptual discussion regarding this topic has resulted in some indicator-based assessments that hardly reflect the conceptual discussion developed so far. These indicator-based approaches still lack accurate inclusion of social dynamics and the capacity to learn from experience. In order to contribute to a comprehensive approach (concept and methods) for assessing social resilience to floods, the evolutionary resilience concept (Davoudi, Simin; Shaw, Keith; Haider, L. Jamila; Quilnlan, Allyson E; Petterson, Garry D.; Wilkinson, Cathy; Fünfgeld, Hartmut; McEvoy, Darryn; Porter, 2012) was considered as a reference in this work, as it can include dimensions that are difficult to evaluate (non-static time and learning-capacity in multi-dimensional systems). This work addresses the challenge of a conceptual overview of social resilience to include key factors and indicators. Our methodology uses text mining, experts' surveys and bibliography reviews to generate an indicators database. The contribution of this article to the scientific debate on social resilience assessment is twofold. First, the key-concepts, words and expressions in this field are identified, which provides the basis to build a comprehensive and coherent analytical framework. Secondly, an original indicators database is proposed in line with that framework. The results of a text mining-based methodology and an online survey, involving experts from different countries, show that four of the six dimensions of the indicators database refer to social aspects of risks (Individuals, Society, Governance, and Built Environment), while the remaining two refer to the Environment and Disaster. The results obtained so far suggest the need for a next step aiming to validate the dimensions and the indicators of this database through its application to real case studies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Orientação para alunos DO Ensino Médio frente às crises emocionais e o bullying no espaço escolar

This article seeks to discuss the Educational Guidance for adolescents on emotional crises, bullying and Human Rights Education. The epistemological option to approach the present theme comes from a concern that involves intellectual perception, as well as the synesthetic experience in the labor field. The central objective is limited by analyzing how the Educational Counselor can assist in health and stress prevention among high school adolescents.This investigation is based on the qualitative approach, comprising the different interpretative techniques, relativistic assumptions and verbal representation of data. The research field takes place in a State College. of Three Rivers, (Brazil).The research subjects were 30 students with ages ranging from 14 to 19 years, regularly enrolled and attending high school attended by the Educational Guidance, between 2018-2019, who presented the picture of emotional crises. Data collection was done through: observation and interviews. Data analysis occurred according to Minayo (2003, p. 74) who advocates for manifest content.The ethical aspects of the research met the assumptions of resolution 196/96 of the National Health Council. Result: It is concluded that the work of the EO at school is fundamental in welcoming students in emotional crises, since it can identify and prevent and refer them to the mental health service, thus maintaining a connection with the health centers in the city. of stressor prevention.El presente artículo busca discutir la Orientación Educativa para adolescentes, crisis emocionales, intimidación y educación en derechos humanos. La opción epistemológica para abordar el tema actual proviene de una preocupación que involucra la percepción intelectual, así como la experiencia de sinestesia en el campo laboral. El objetivo central está limitado al analizar cómo el Consejero Educativo puede ayudar en la salud y la prevención del estrés entre los adolescentes de secundaria. Esta investigación se basa en el enfoque cualitativo, que comprende las diferentes técnicas interpretativas, los supuestos relativistas y la representación verbal de los datos. El campo de investigación se lleva a cabo en una universidad estatal. de los Tres Ríos, (Brasil). Los sujetos de investigación fueron 30 estudiantes con edades comprendidas entre 14 y 19 años, matriculados regularmente y asistiendo a la escuela secundaria a la que asistió la Orientación Educativa, entre 2018-2019, que presentaron la imagen de las crisis emocionales. La recolección de datos se realizó mediante: observación y entrevistas. El análisis de los datos se realizó de acuerdo con Minayo (2003, p. 74) que defiende el contenido manifiesto. Los aspectos éticos de la investigación cumplieron con los supuestos de la resolución 196/96 del Consejo Nacional de Salud. Resultado: se concluye que el trabajo del EO en la escuela es fundamental para dar la bienvenida a los estudiantes en crisis emocionales, ya que puede identificarlos, prevenirlos y derivarlos al servicio de salud mental, manteniendo así una conexión con los centros de salud de la ciudad. de prevención del estrés.O presente artigo busca dialogar sobre a Orientação Educacional para adolescentes sobre as crises emocionais, bullying e  Educação em Direitos Humanos. A opção epistemológica por abordar a presente temática advém de uma preocupação que envolve a percepção intelectual, como também, a experiência sinestésica no campo laboral. O objetivo central se delimita ao analisar como o Orientador Educacional pode auxiliar na saúde e na prevenção de estresse entre adolescentes do ensino médio. Esta investigação está alicerçada na abordagem qualitativa, compreendendo as diferentes técnicas interpretativas, pressupostos relativistas e representação verbal de dados. O campo de investigação se dá em um Colégio Estadual, de Três Rios (Brasil). Os sujeitos da pesquisa foram 30 alunos com idades variantes entre 14 e 19 anos, regularmente matriculados e freqüentando o Ensino Médio da instituição, atendidos pela Orientação Educacional, entre os anos de 2018-2019, que apresentaram o quadro de crises emocionais. A coleta de dados foi feita através de: observação e entrevistas. A análise de dados ocorreu de acordo com Minayo (2003, p. 74) que preconiza para o conteúdo manifesto. Os aspectos éticos da pesquisa atenderam aos pressupostos da resolução 196/96 do Conselho Nacional de Saúde. Resultado: Conclui-se que o trabalho do OE na escola é fundamental no acolhimento dos alunos nas crises emocionais, uma vez que pode identificar e prevenir e encaminhá-los para o serviço de saúde mental, dessa forma mantém uma conexão com os centros sanitários na de prevenção dos fatores estressores

Heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems control based in the Predicted Mean Vote index

In this work a numerical model, which simulates the buildings thermal response and evaluates the indoor environment comfort, in transient conditions, is used in the application of Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems control, based in the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) index, in the energy and thermal comfort performance in a kindergarten school building, in the South of Portugal, in Winter conditions. In the control the PMV index, based in the mean air temperature, the mean air velocity, the mean air relative humidity, the mean radiant temperature, the clothing level and the activity level, are used. In the numerical simulation of the kindergarten, the 25 compartments, the 498 building main bodies and the 42 windows glasses, as well as two schools and three residential surrounding main buildings, are considered

The new automated daily mortality surveillance system

The experience reported in an earlier Eurosurveillance issue on a fast method to evaluate the impact of the 2003 heatwave on mortality in Portugal, generated a daily mortality surveillance system (VDM) that has been operating ever since jointly with the Portuguese Heat Health Watch Warning System. This work describes the VDM system and how it evolved to become an automated system operating year-round, and shows briefly its potential using mortality data from January 2006 to June 2009 collected by the system itself. The new system has important advantages such as: rapid information acquisition, completeness (the entire population is included), lightness (very little information is exchanged, date of death, age, sex, place of death registration). It allows rapid detection of impacts (within five days) and allows a quick preliminary quantification of impacts that usually took several years to be done. These characteristics make this system a powerful tool for public health action. The VDM system also represents an example of inter-institutional cooperation, bringing together organisations from two different ministries, Health and Justice, aiming at improving knowledge about the mortality in the population

Industry-peppers harvest mechanization.

Production of peppers for deshidration (paprika) and for extraction of natural colorants is of great importance in some Mediterranean irrigation areas. In the area of Badajoz (Spain) traditional production, handling and postharvest systems are no longer feasible, although a very good quality and potential market exist for this product. All aspects of mechanized production and handling have been addressed: direct seeding and transplanting, cultivation systems and mechanical harvesting are searched to be adopted in a new production system. A study of size, shape and fruiting pattern of the new varieties was performed. A feasibility study of mechanized harvesting was also made. Results of field testing of different types of harvesters and performance of existing picking heads are presented, some of which yield a feasible solution for the growers of industry peppers in the area. The design, construction and field testing results of a new picking head based on the double-helix principle is presented

Determinant Factors of Morbidity in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Introdução: O lúpus eritematoso sistémico pode apresentar uma gravidade variável. Contudo, não existem biomarcadores que preveem o curso da doença. O dano é medido pelo índice Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/Systemic Damage Index que define a gravidade e prevê o seu prognóstico. Objetivo: Avaliação dos fatores que determinam dano nos doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico. Material e Métodos: Estudo retrospetivo, monocêntrico, em doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico (≥ 4 critérios do American College of Rheumatology – 100% dos doentes, n = 76), do sexo feminino, seguidos por um período ≥ 5 anos. Início da doença, etnia, duração, número de critérios American College of Rheumatology no final do seguimento, fenótipo renal, neuropsiquiátrico (e articular, co-morbilidades e Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index -2K foram correlacionados com a presença e grau de dano medido pelo índice Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/Systemic Damage Index. A acumulação de critérios American College of Rheumatology foi objetivada num sub-grupo de doentes seguidos desde o início. A análise estatística utilizou o qui-quadrado, Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney e a correlação de Spearman (p < 0,05). Resultados: O Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Index era superior a 0 em 56,5% dos doentes. Estes doentes tinham um maior tempo de doença, um maior número de critérios American College of Rheumatology e um fenótipo neuropsiquiátrico, quando comparados com doentes sem dano (p < 0,05). Verificou-se uma correlação positiva entre o valor numérico de critérios American College of Rheumatology acumulados no final do seguimento e a atividade da doença nos últimos cinco anos (Spearman rho 0,02 e p < 0,05). Não se verificaram diferenças em relação às outras variáveis. Discussão e Conclusão: A duração da doença e o número de critérios do American College of Rheumatology acumulados conseguem prever a presença de dano. A doença neuropsiquiátrica teve impacto na morbilidade dos doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico, identificando um subgrupo em risco.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Multi-temporal decomposition for elastoplastic ratcheting solids

This paper presents a multi-temporal formulation for simulating elastoplastic solids under cyclic loading. We leverage the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) to decompose the displacements into multiple time scales, separating the spatial and intra-cyclic dependence from the inter-cyclic variation. In contrast with the standard incremental approach, which solves the (non-linear and computationally intensive) mechanical balance equations at every time step, the proposed PGD approach allows the mechanical balance equations to be solved exclusively for the small-time intra-cyclic response, while the large-time inter-cyclic response is described by simple scalar algebraic equations. Numerical simulations exhibiting complex cyclic responses, including a 2D problem and an application to a monopile foundation, demonstrate that PGD solutions with a limited number of space-time degrees of freedom may be obtained numerically, only requiring a few modes to accurately capture the reference response.Comment: Version accepted for publication in Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineerin