The US current account deficit : how did it come about and what are the policy implications

One of the most remarkable characteristics of the world economy today is the enormous, ever worsening US balance of payments current account deficit, which reached a record level of 5.7 p.c. of GDP in 2004. This has given rise to concerns in academic and political circles regarding the sustainability of the current situation and the potential dangers for the global economy of a sudden, disorderly adjustment. The size of the US current account deficit is not only unprecedented in American post-war history, but it also seems to be exceptional from an international perspective. Moreover, the US deficit contrasts with a surplus in virtually every other region and the problem has consequently taken on a global dimension. The increase in the US current account deficit recorded in the nineties reflects an internal American shortfall in savings. Whereas the private savings-investment equilibrium was restored in 2002 and 2003, the same period saw a huge deficit in the public sector budget. The start of the new millennium brought notable changes in the way the US current account deficit was financed since investments by Asian public authorities in American government debt instruments largely took over the position previously occupied by European private foreign direct investments and investments in equities. It is sometimes put forward that the US, unlike other countries facing similar circumstances, is safeguarded from an attack on its currency because of its prominent role in the international financial system. According to an influential school of thought in economic literature, the current international system can even be seen as a “revived” Bretton Woods system. Indeed, a number of East-Asian countries, including China, use a fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rate against the dollar, which brings to mind an informal dollar standard. Although this set of circumstances has undoubtedly offered various regions in the world a number of mutual benefits during recent years, these exchange rate relations may nevertheless have caused some distortions in US spending, whereas Asian countries have to deal with a growing exchange rate risk on their official reserves. Different scenarios are conceivable to deal with the global imbalances. The results of model simulations show the huge effort required to significantly reduce the US current account deficit which highlights the scale of the problem, emphasising the need for simultaneous economic policy measures in the different economies involved. The concern over global imbalances and the development of exchange rates also feature prominently on the agenda of international forums such as the G7 or G20 meetings. In the statements issued at those meetings, the need for a common approach to tackle the global imbalances is given priority and the belief that excessive exchange rate volatility is not desirable is underlined.current account imbalances, United States current account, financial flows into the United States, international monetary system

PowerAqua: fishing the semantic web

The Semantic Web (SW) offers an opportunity to develop novel, sophisticated forms of question answering (QA). Specifically, the availability of distributed semantic markup on a large scale opens the way to QA systems which can make use of such semantic information to provide precise, formally derived answers to questions. At the same time the distributed, heterogeneous, large-scale nature of the semantic information introduces significant challenges. In this paper we describe the design of a QA system, PowerAqua, designed to exploit semantic markup on the web to provide answers to questions posed in natural language. PowerAqua does not assume that the user has any prior information about the semantic resources. The system takes as input a natural language query, translates it into a set of logical queries, which are then answered by consulting and aggregating information derived from multiple heterogeneous semantic sources

Random acyclic networks

Directed acyclic graphs are a fundamental class of networks that includes citation networks, food webs, and family trees, among others. Here we define a random graph model for directed acyclic graphs and give solutions for a number of the model's properties, including connection probabilities and component sizes, as well as a fast algorithm for simulating the model on a computer. We compare the predictions of the model to a real-world network of citations between physics papers and find surprisingly good agreement, suggesting that the structure of the real network may be quite well described by the random graph.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel: 2012 Cloud Calibration Procedure and Results

In 2011, NASA Glenn s Icing Research Tunnel underwent a major modification to it s refrigeration plant and heat exchanger. This paper presents the results of the subsequent full cloud calibration. Details of the calibration procedure and results are presented herein. The steps include developing a nozzle transfer map, establishing a uniform cloud, conducting a drop sizing calibration and finally a liquid water content calibration. The goal of the calibration is to develop a uniform cloud, and to build a transfer map from the inputs of air speed, spray bar atomizing air pressure and water pressure to the output of median volumetric droplet diameter and liquid water content

An Optimized Data Management Model for Maternal Mortality in Bayelsa State

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is the quantity of maternal deaths in a given duration per 100,000 of reproductive aged (15-49) women. This amounts to both the obstetric risk and the rate of recurrence at which women are unprotected to this risk. In Bayelsa State, the maternal mortality has high rates. The driving reasons for death are related with hypertensive disorder, severe bleeding, infection and other complications of delivery that could be avoided. This research aims to develop a maternal mortality system using Data mining techniques; estimation of maternal mortality rate in Otuasega Cottage Hospital in Ogbia Local Government Area in Bayelsa State was carried out by analyzing the causes of death during pregnancy; Naive Bayes was used in Bayes Server to classify Hypertensive diseases into preeclampsia and gestational, identifying the symptoms and risk factors. Among other causes of maternal death evaluated, Hypertensive disease was the highest cause of maternal death in Bayelsa State between 2012 to 2018. We developed a Bayesian maternal mortality estimation model, that catches increasing speeds and deceleration in the rate of progress in the maternal death rate. Result shows that the trend was as low as 2 maternal deaths in every 202 live births in 2012 but increased to 12 per 210 live births in 2016. The maternal mortality rate continued its upward trend and increased to 14 deaths per 172 live births in the year 2018. Maternal mortality rate which was very low have increased significantly, and most death were caused by Hypertensive, followed by bleeding, complications and little of infections. Keywords: Naïve Bayes, Bayesian Estimation Model, Maternal Mortality DOI: 10.7176/CEIS/10-5-02 Publication date:June 30th 201

Data assimilation insights on selecting the most valuable atmospheric measurements

We discuss how objective guidance on selecting the most valuable atmospheric measurements on future Mars spacecraft missions can be provided through already developed Martian atmospheric data assimilation systems, and in particular through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) which are widely used to design instruments for the Earth’s atmosphere

An Assessment of the SEA Multi-Element Sensor for Liquid Water Content Calibration of the NASA GRC Icing Research Tunnel

The NASA Glenn Icing Research tunnel has been using an Icing Blade technique to measure cloud liquid water content (LWC) since 1980. The IRT conducted tests with SEA Multi-Element sensors from 2009 to 2011 to assess their performance in measuring LWC. These tests revealed that the Multi-Element sensors showed some significant advantages over the Icing Blade, particularly at higher water contents, higher impingement rates, and large drop sizes. Results of these and other tests are presented here

Evaluation of the impact of a regional educational advertising campaign on harm perceptions of e-cigarettes, prevalence of e-cigarette use, and quit attempts among smokers

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated how effective an advertising campaign that was piloted by Cancer Research UK in January/February 2018 was at promoting quit attempts by increasing awareness of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with smoking. METHODS: Adults (≥16 years, n = 2217) living in Greater Manchester (campaign region) and Yorkshire & Humber and the North East of England (control regions) completed cross-sectional surveys immediately before and after the campaign period. Surveys measured socio-demographics, perceptions and use of e-cigarettes, and motivation and attempts to quit smoking. We tested interactions between time (pre, post) and region (campaign, control). RESULTS: 36.7% (95% CI 33.0%-40.6%) of those in the intervention region recognised the campaign. In the general population, interactions were non-significant for all outcomes except for perception of e-cigarettes as effective cessation aids, with smaller increases from pre- to post-campaign in the campaign (49.9% to 54.0%) compared with the control region (40.5% to 55.0%; OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.98). Among smokers, motivation to quit increased in the intervention region (44.0% to 48.0%) but decreased in the control region (40.5% to 21.5%; OR = 2.97, 95% CI 1.25-7.16), with no other significant differences between regions over time. A Bayesian analysis confirmed that non-significant results were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the control region, the campaign was associated with an increase in smokers' motivation to quit but a smaller increase in adults' perception of e-cigarettes as an effective cessation aid. There was insufficient evidence to determine whether the campaign affected other outcomes

A Study of Large Droplet Ice Accretion in the NASA Lewis IRT at Near-Freezing Conditions

Results of experiments designed to determine the effects of large droplet ice accretion on a NACA 23012 wing section are presented. Using primarily an icing condition with a median volumetric diameter droplet size of 160 micron and a liquid water content of 0.82 grams per cubic meter, the effects of various air temperatures, angles of attack, and de-icer boot cycle interval times on ice accretion were studied. Measurements of aerodynamic performance penalties due to the ice accretions were made. Results were also compared with similar tests conducted with a Twin Otter wing section in Part 1 of this study. The form of the ice from the large droplet cloud varied as a function of air total temperature; particularly at the near-freezing temperatures of 28 F to 34 F. Changing boot cycle interval time did not prevent formation of an ice ridge. The most detrimental aerodynamic effects occurred at an air total temperature of 28 F

A Study of Large Droplet Ice Accretions in the NASA-Lewis IRT at Near-Freezing Conditions

This report documents the results of an experimental study on large droplet ice accretions which was conducted in the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) with a full-scale 77.25 inch chord Twin-Otter wing section. This study was intended to: (1) document the existing capability of the IRT to produce a large droplet icing cloud, and (2) study the effect of various parameters on large droplet ice accretions. Results are presented from a study of the IRT's capability to produce large droplets with MVD of 99 and 160 microns. The effect of the initial water droplet temperature on the resultant ice accretion was studied for different initial spray bar air and water temperatures. The initial spray bar water temperature was found to have no discernible effect upon the large droplet ice accretions. Also, analytical and experimental results suggest that the water droplet temperature is very nearly the same as the tunnel ambient temperature, thus providing a realistic simulation of the large droplet natural icing condition. The effect of temperature, droplet size, airspeed, angle-of attack, flap setting and de-icer boot cycling time on ice accretion was studied, and will be discussed in this report. It was found that, in almost all of the cases studied, an ice ridge formed immediately aft of the active portion of the de-icer boot. This ridge was irregular in shape, varied in location, and was in some cases discontinuous due to aerodynamic shedding