The end of secularization in Europe? A socio-demographic perspective

Much of the current debate over secularization in Europe focuses only on the direction of religious change, and pays exclusive attention to social causes. Scholars have been less attentive to shifts in the rate of religious decline, and to the role of demography – notably fertility and immigration. This article addresses both phenomena. It uses data from the European Values Surveys and European Social Survey for the period 1981-2008 to establish basic trends in religious attendance and belief across the ten countries that have been consistently surveyed. These show that religious decline is mainly occurring in Catholic European countries and has effectively ceased among post-1945 birth cohorts in six northwestern European societies where secularization began early. It also provides a cohort component projection of religious affiliation for two European countries using fertility, migration, switching and age and sex-structure parameters derived from census and immigration data. These suggest that western Europe may be more religious at the end of our century than at its beginning

Demographic Profile of the Arab Region: Realizing the Demographic Dividend. E/ESCWA/SDD/2016/Technical Paper 3

The demographic transition is a change in patterns of population growth, from high rates of fertility and mortality to low rates of fertility and mortality. At an early stage, this transition leads to a shift in the population’s age composition whereby the number of working-age persons exceeds that of economically dependent persons. More resources are then available for investment in human capital (health and education), physical capital, and economic and social development. This phase is referred to as the demographic dividend or demographic window of opportunity. Its duration varies between countries, and it is affected by various factors such as the speed of fertility decline (the faster the better), and employment and productivity rates. Today, Arab countries are registering declining fertility rates and increases in life expectancy, although at different paces and starting from different levels. They are thus at different stages of the demographic transition and of the window of opportunity. This study, aimed at analysing the demographic changes that Arab countries are undergoing, classes them in four categories: (a) Arab least developed countries (LDCs): Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen; (b) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates; (c) Mashreq countries: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, State of Palestine and Syrian Arab Republic; and (d) Maghreb countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. It gives an overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region and assesses the window of opportunity during which each country could reap the benefits of its changing population structure. Reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend is not automatic and requires an enabling policy environment. The study thus presents four case studies on countries that benefitted from their demographic window of opportunity by implementing sound policies, making recommendations for the Arab region

Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100

This paper describes the base-line data and summarizes the methodology that underlies the projections presented for 195 countries of the world by age, sex, and educational attainment, based on detailed data on education for 171 countries. These multi-dimensional cohort-component projections require a large amount of empirical information, ranging from base-year data on populations disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on educational differentials of fertility and mortality. The paper also summarizes the procedures by which the assumed trajectories for future fertility, mortality and migration were derived by combining structured expert judgments with statistical models. It also describes in detail the procedures by which assumptions on aggregate fertility, mortality and migration trends were translated into education-specific trajectories in order to then calculate the implications of alternative education scenarios

The relative importance of women’s education on fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis

Lowering desired family size is a necessary precondition for fertility declines in high-fertility settings. Although accumulated evidence links socio-economic developments to changing fertility desires, little research has disentangled the relative importance of key socio-economic determinants. Combining individual- and community-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys in 34 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, we compare the relative role of different socio-economic factors on fertility desires at the individual, community, and country levels. Results show that at the individual level, women's education has a stronger effect than household wealth and area of residence. The high levels of reported desired family size in rural parts of SSA are mainly a consequence of relatively lower levels of education. The relative impact of women's education is even stronger at the community level. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of fertility preferences and strengthen previous findings regarding the relationship between fertility and women's education

Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education

Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa have, over the past decade, been corrected upwards because in a number of countries, the earlier declining trends in fertility stalled around 2000. While most studies so far have focused on economic, political, or other factors around 2000, here we suggest that in addition to those period effects, the phenomenon also matched up with disruptions in the cohort trends of educational attainment of women after the postindependence economic and political turmoil. Disruptions likely resulted in a higher proportion of poorly educated women of childbearing age in the late 1990s and early 2000s than there would have been otherwise. In addition to the direct effects of education on lowering fertility, these less-educated female cohorts were also more vulnerable to adverse period effects around 2000. To explore this hypothesis, we combine individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 18 African countries with and without fertility stalls, thus creating a pooled dataset of more than two million births to some 670,000 women born from 1950 to 1995 by level of education. Statistical analyses indicate clear discontinuities in the improvement of educational attainment of subsequent cohorts of women and stronger sensitivity of less-educated women to period effects. We assess the magnitude of the effect of educational discontinuity through a comparison of the actual trends with counterfactual trends based on the assumption of no education stalls, resulting in up to half a child per woman less in 2010 and 13 million fewer live births over the 1995–2010 period

A Harmonized Dataset on Global Educational Attainment between 1970 and 2060 – An Analytical Window into Recent Trends and Future Prospects in Human Capital Development

We hereby present a dataset produced at the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) containing comprehensive time series on educational attainment and mean years of schooling (MYS). The dataset is split by 5-year age groups and sex for 171 countries and covers the period between 1970 and 2010. It also contains projections of educational attainment to 2060 based on several scenarios of demographic and educational development. The dataset is constructed around collected and harmonized empirical census and survey data sets for the projection base year. The paper presents the principles and methodology associated with the reconstruction and the projection, and how it differs from several previous exercises. It also proposes a closer look at the diffusion of education in world regions and how the existing gaps in terms of generation, gender, and geography have been evolving in the last 40 years

A Unified Theoretical Description of the Thermodynamical Properties of Spin Crossover with Magnetic Interactions

After the discovery of the phenomena of light-induced excited spin state trapping (LIESST), the functional properties of metal complexes have been studied intensively. Among them, cooperative phenomena involving low spin-high spin (spin-crossover) transition and magnetic ordering have attracted interests, and it has become necessary to formulate a unified description of both phenomena. In this work, we propose a model in which they can be treated simultaneously by extending the Wajnflasz-Pick model including a magnetic interaction. We found that this new model is equivalent to Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) Hamiltonian with degenerate levels. This model provides a unified description of the thermodynamic properties associated with various types of systems, such as spin-crossover (SC) solids and Prussian blue analogues (PBA). Here, the high spin fraction and the magnetization are the order parameters describing the cooperative phenomena of the model. We present several typical temperature dependences of the order parameters and we determine the phase diagram of the system using the mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that the magnetic interaction drives the SC transition leading to re-entrant magnetic and first-order SC transitions.Comment: 30pages, 11figure