The new resilience of emerging and developing countries: systemic interlocking, currency swaps and geoeconomics

The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between advanced and developing economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Yet, most of the debate in the current literature is focusing on the structural constraints faced by the Emerging and Developing Countries (EDCs) and the lack of changes in the formal structures of global economic governance. This paper challenges this literature and its conclusions by focusing on the new conditions of systemic interlocking between advanced and emerging economies, and by analysing how large EDCs have built and are strengthening their economic resilience. We find that a significant redistribution of ‘policy space’ between advanced and emerging economies have taken place in the global economy. We also find that a number of seemingly technical currency swap agreements among EDCs have set in motion changes in the very structure of global trade and finance. These developments do not signify the end of EDCs’ vulnerability towards advanced economies. They signify however that the economic and geoeconomic implications of this vulnerability have changed in ways that constrain the options available to advanced economies and pose new challenges for the post-WWII economic order

Exploring the financial and investment implications of the Paris Agreement

A global energy transition is underway. Limiting warming to 2°C (or less), as envisaged in the Paris Agreement, will require a major diversion of scheduled investments in the fossil-fuel industry and other high-carbon capital infrastructure towards renewables, energy efficiency, and other low or negative carbon technologies. The article explores the scale of climate finance and investment needs embodied in the Paris Agreement. It reveals that there is little clarity in the numbers from the plethora of sources (official and otherwise) on climate finance and investment. The article compares the US$100 billion target in the Paris Agreement with a range of other financial metrics, such as investment, incremental investment, energy expenditure, energy subsidies, and welfare losses. While the relatively narrowly defined climate finance included in the US$100 billion figure is a fraction of the broader finance and investment needs of climate-change mitigation and adaptation, it is significant when compared to some estimates of the net incremental costs of decarbonization that take into account capital and operating cost savings. However, even if the annual US$100 billion materializes, achieving the much larger implied shifts in investment will require the enactment of long-term internationally coordinated policies, far more stringent than have yet been introduced.</i

Institutional reform and FDI decision in transition economies: a qualitative study of Syria

The article considers the impact of institutional reform on the decision of foreign enterprises and foreign entrepreneurs to directly invest in the transition economy of Syria. It responds to the calls for more open research design that can go beyond the borders of the quantitative findings of previous econometric research by adopting a qualitative research strategy. The results reveal that institutional reforms enhanced Syria’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment. Institutional barriers proved to be less daunting to foreign investors whose backgrounds were culturally similar to that of Syria and/or already had experience in Syria or in a similar type of economy. The impact of background similarity and previous experience in similar contexts appeared to be less important when the foreign investor was a multinational enterprise than for individual entrepreneur. Moreover, these factors also appeared to be less important for large enterprises compared to small enterprises

Uzbekistan’s development experiment: An assessment of Karimov’s peculiar economic legacy

Uzbekistan’s unique post-independence experiment with development was led by Islam Karimov until his sudden death in September 2016. Despite defying international advice on structural reforms, under Karimov’s rule, Uzbekistan achieved an average annual growth rate of 5% in the period 1996–2016, which was particularly impressive (over 8%) in 2004–2016. Karimov also left behind strong macroeconomic fundamentals for his successor. Since taking over the presidency in December 2016, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has introduced wide-ranging reforms, creating an impression of a de facto start to transition in Uzbekistan. This study analyses Karimov’s economic legacy and assesses whether it has enabled or hindered the developmental targets set by his successor

Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Double Exponential Instability of Triangular Arbitrage Systems

If financial markets displayed the informational efficiency postulated in the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage operations would be self-extinguishing. The present paper considers arbitrage sequences in foreign exchange (FX) markets, in which trading platforms and information are fragmented. In Kozyakin et al. (2010) and Cross et al. (2012) it was shown that sequences of triangular arbitrage operations in FX markets containing 4 currencies and trader-arbitrageurs tend to display periodicity or grow exponentially rather than being self-extinguishing. This paper extends the analysis to 5 or higher-order currency worlds. The key findings are that in a 5-currency world arbitrage sequences may also follow an exponential law as well as display periodicity, but that in higher-order currency worlds a double exponential law may additionally apply. There is an "inheritance of instability" in the higher-order currency worlds. Profitable arbitrage operations are thus endemic rather that displaying the self-extinguishing properties implied by the EMH.Comment: 22 pages, 22 bibliography references, expanded Introduction and Conclusion, added bibliohraphy reference

East Asia and the global/transatlantic/Western crisis

This paper introduces the special collection on East Asia and the Global Crisis. After justifying why a focus on East Asia is appropriate, it draws out the main themes that run through the individual contributions. These are the extent to which the region is decoupling from the global economy (or the West), the increasing legitimacy of statist alternatives to neoliberal development strategies, and the impact of crises on the definition of ―region‖ and the functioning of regional institutions and governance mechanisms

Introduction revisiting the Argentine crisis a decade on: changes and continuities

This introductory chapter to the book "Argentina Since the 2001 Crisis Recovering the Past, Reclaiming the Future" analyses crisis and its associated responses and subsequent recovery in the context of Argentina’s multiple implosion of 2001-02 whilst also assessing its legacies for the country’s social, cultural, economic and political realms during the last decade. It recognises that "crisis" is a term that is much used in the post-Lehman Brothers world and that the subsequent responses and associated recoveries (or lack of) have been the subject of a cascade of academic, government, media, and think-tank investigation ever since. The chapter instead seeks to understand the nature of how crisis and its impacts should be investigated and interrogated, by rejecting false dichotomies of ‘old’ and ‘new’ and synthesising understanding to form an analysis that draws both elements of continuity and elements of change. Secondly, it argues that crisis manifests itself in a number of realms, and that heuristic devices employed to investigate them must subsequently also be drawn from across a range of disciplinary perspectives. Thirdly, it examines how the 2001-02 crisis in Argentina led to a series of responses that both rejected the neoliberal model yet also recovered elements of it. Finally it outlines the structure of the rest of the book, briefly summarising the chapters in turn

The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks

The aim of the contribute is to analyze the impact of the financial crisis, in particular since the start of the sovereign debt phase, on Italian banks and their intermediation model. Italian banks\u2019 specific business model explains why they suffered less than those of other countries during the first phase of the crisis, requiring one of the lowest levels of public facilities in the EC as compared to GDP. Most of these same characteristics have changed from positive to negative factors since the sovereign debt crisis, which hit Italy hard, affecting first banks\u2019 liquidity and secondly the cost and volumes of funding and loans. Italian banks are now facing the effects of the double-dip recession, which has significantly weakened businesses and households, their key customer segments, and their borrowing and saving capability, with an increasing rate of non-performing loans. This situation is impairing the sustainability of the \u201ctraditional\u201d intermediation model and means that banks must introduce strategies for significantly modifying the banking business model they adopt