Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

Abstract. In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes. After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation. In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event. In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast. Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin. The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall–runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano

Safety of fertility preservation techniques before and after anticancer treatments in young women with breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Study question: Is it safe to perform controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) for fertility preservation before starting anticancer therapies or ART after treatments in young breast cancer patients? Summary answer: Performing COS before, or ART following anticancer treatment in young women with breast cancer does not seem to be associated with detrimental prognostic effect in terms of breast cancer recurrence, mortality or event-free survival (EFS). What is known already: COS for oocyte/embryo cryopreservation before starting chemotherapy is standard of care for young women with breast cancer wishing to preserve fertility. However, some oncologists remain concerned on the safety of COS, particularly in patients with hormone-sensitive tumors, even when associated with aromatase inhibitors. Moreover, limited evidence exists on the safety of ART in breast cancer survivors for achieving pregnancy after the completion of anticancer treatments. Study design, size, duration: The present systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out by three blinded investigators using the keywords 'breast cancer' and 'fertility preservation'; keywords were combined with Boolean operators. Eligible studies were identified by a systematic literature search of Medline, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane library with no language or date restriction up to 30 June 2021. Participants/materials, setting, methods: To be included in this meta-analysis, eligible studies had to be case-control or cohort studies comparing survival outcomes of women who underwent COS or ART before or after breast cancer treatments compared to breast cancer patients not exposed to these strategies. Survival outcomes of interest were cancer recurrence rate, relapse rate, overall survival and number of deaths. Adjusted relative risk (RR) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI were extracted. When the number of events for each group were available but the above measures were not reported, HRs were estimated using the Watkins and Bennett method. We excluded case reports or case series with <10 patients and studies without a control group of breast cancer patients who did not pursue COS or ART. Quality of data and risk of bias were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Assessment Scale. Main results and the role of chance: A total of 1835 records were retrieved. After excluding ineligible publications, 15 studies were finally included in the present meta-analysis (n = 4643). Among them, 11 reported the outcomes of breast cancer patients who underwent COS for fertility preservation before starting chemotherapy, and 4 the safety of ART following anticancer treatment completion. Compared to women who did not receive fertility preservation at diagnosis (n = 2386), those who underwent COS (n = 1594) had reduced risk of recurrence (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46-0.73) and mortality (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.76). No detrimental effect of COS on EFS was observed (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.55-1.06). A similar trend of better outcomes in terms of EFS was observed in women with hormone-receptor-positive disease who underwent COS (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20-0.65). A reduced risk of recurrence was also observed in patients undergoing COS before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (RR 0.22, 95% CI 0.06-0.80). Compared to women not exposed to ART following completion of anticancer treatments (n = 540), those exposed to ART (n = 123) showed a tendency for better outcomes in terms of recurrence ratio (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.17-0.70) and EFS (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.17-1.11). Limitations, reasons for caution: This meta-analysis is based on abstracted data and most of the studies included are retrospective cohort studies. Not all studies had matching criteria between the study population and the controls, and these criteria often differed between the studies. Moreover, rate of recurrence is reported as a punctual event and it is not possible to establish when recurrences occurred and whether follow-up, which was shorter than 5 years in some of the included studies, is adequate to capture late recurrences. Wider implications of the findings: Our results demonstrate that performing COS at diagnosis or ART following treatment completion does not seem to be associated with detrimental prognostic effect in young women with breast cancer, including among patients with hormone receptor-positive disease and those receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Study funding/competing interest(s): Partially supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC; grant number MFAG 2020 ID 24698) and the Italian Ministry of Health-5 7 1000 funds 2017 (no grant number). M.L. acted as consultant for Roche, Pfizer, Novartis, Lilly, AstraZeneca, MSD, Exact Sciences, Gilead, Seagen and received speaker honoraria from Roche, Pfizer, Novartis, Lilly, Ipsen, Takeda, Libbs, Knight, Sandoz outside the submitted work. F.S. acted as consultant for Novartis, MSD, Sun Pharma, Philogen and Pierre Fabre and received speaker honoraria from Roche, Novartis, BMS, MSD, Merck, Sun Pharma, Sanofi and Pierre Fabre outside the submitted work. I.D. has acted as a consultant for Roche, has received research grants from Roche and Ferring, has received reagents for academic clinical trial from Roche diagnostics, speaker's fees from Novartis, and support for congresses from Theramex and Ferring outside the submitted work. L.D.M. reported honoraria from Roche, Novartis, Eli Lilly, MSD, Pfizer, Ipsen, Novartis and had an advisory role for Roche, Eli Lilly, Novartis, MSD, Genomic Health, Pierre Fabre, Daiichi Sankyo, Seagen, AstraZeneca, Eisai outside the submitted work. The other authors declare no conflict of interest. The funding organizations had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Registration number: N/A

Oral Nutritional Supplementation in Children Treated for Cancer in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Is Feasible and Effective: the Experience of the Children's Hospital Manuel De Jesus Rivera "La Mascota" in Nicaragua.

Children with cancer are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition, which can affect their tolerance of chemotherapy and outcome. In Nicaragua approximately two-thirds of children diagnosed with cancer present with under-nutrition. A nutritional program for children with cancer has been developed at "La Mascota" Hospital. Results of this oral nutritional intervention including difficulties, benefits, and relevance for children treated for cancer in low- and middle-income countries are here reported and discussed

Cause specific mortality in an Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts

Background Asbestos is a known human carcinogen and is causally associated with malignant mesothelioma, lung, larynx and ovarian cancers.Methods Cancer risk was studied among a pool of formerly asbestos-exposed workers in Italy. Fifty-two Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos-cement, rolling-stock, shipbuilding, and other) were pooled and their mortality follow-up was updated to 2018. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed for major causes of death considering duration of exposure and time since first exposure (TSFE), using reference rates by region, age and calendar period.Results The study included 63,502 subjects (57,156 men and 6346 women): 40% who were alive, 58% who died (cause known for 92%), and 2% lost to follow-up. Mortality was increased for all causes (SMR: men = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05; women = 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), all malignancies (SMR: men = 1.21, 95% CI 1.18-1.23; women = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.37), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (men: SMR = 10.46, 95% CI 9.86-11.09 and 4.29, 95% CI 3.66-5.00; women: SMR = 27.13, 95% CI 23.29-31.42 and 7.51, 95% CI 5.52-9.98), lung (SMR: men = 1.28, 95% CI 1.24-1.32; women = 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.53), and ovarian cancer (SMR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.84). Pleural cancer mortality increased during the first 40 years of TSFE (latency), reaching a plateau thereafter.Conclusions Analyses by time-dependent variables showed that the risk for pleural neoplasms increased with latency and no longer increases at long TSFE, consistent with with asbestos clearance from the lungs. Peritoneal neoplasm risk increased over all observation time

Phase II study of single agent capecitabine in the treatment of metastatic non-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

BACKGROUND: This study sought to determine the safety of single agent capecitabine, a pro-drug of 5FU, in patients with metastatic non-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (NETs). METHODS: Multicentre phase II, first-line study design. Oral capecitabine was administered on days 1-14 of 3-week cycles. RESULTS: Treatment was safe and well tolerated. Common toxicities were diarrhoea and fatigue. CONCLUSION: The study provides evidence to support the use of capecitabine as a substitute for infusional 5FU in the management of NETs

Candidate biomarkers from the integration of methylation and gene expression in discordant autistic sibling pairs

While the genetics of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) has been intensively studied, resulting in the identification of over 100 putative risk genes, the epigenetics of ASD has received less attention, and results have been inconsistent across studies. We aimed to investigate the contribution of DNA methylation (DNAm) to the risk of ASD and identify candidate biomarkers arising from the interaction of epigenetic mechanisms with genotype, gene expression, and cellular proportions. We performed DNAm differential analysis using whole blood samples from 75 discordant sibling pairs of the Italian Autism Network collection and estimated their cellular composition. We studied the correlation between DNAm and gene expression accounting for the potential effects of different genotypes on DNAm. We showed that the proportion of NK cells was significantly reduced in ASD siblings suggesting an imbalance in their immune system. We identified differentially methylated regions (DMRs) involved in neurogenesis and synaptic organization. Among candidate loci for ASD, we detected a DMR mapping to CLEC11A (neighboring SHANK1) where DNAm and gene expression were significantly and negatively correlated, independently from genotype effects. As reported in previous studies, we confirmed the involvement of immune functions in the pathophysiology of ASD. Notwithstanding the complexity of the disorder, suitable biomarkers such as CLEC11A and its neighbor SHANK1 can be discovered using integrative analyses even with peripheral tissues

Ribonucleotide reductase subunits M1 and M2 mRNA expression levels and clinical outcome of lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with docetaxel/gemcitabine

Ribonucleotide reductase subunits M1 (RRM1) and M2 (RRM2) are involved in the metabolism of gemcitabine (2′,2′-difluorodeoxycytidine), which is used for the treatment of nonsmall cell lung cancer. The mRNA expression of RRM1 and RRM2 in tumours from lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with docetaxel/gemcitabine was assessed and the results correlated with clinical outcome. RMM1 and RMM2 mRNA levels were determined by quantitative real-time PCR in primary tumours of previously untreated patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma who were subsequently treated with docetaxel/gemcitabine. Amplification was successful in 42 (79%) of 53 enrolled patients. Low levels of RRM2 mRNA were associated with response to treatment (P< 0.001). Patients with the lowest expression levels of RRM1 had a significantly longer time to progression (P=0.044) and overall survival (P=0.02) than patients with the highest levels. Patients with low levels of both RRM1 and RRM2 had a significantly higher response rate (60 vs 14.2%; P=0.049), time to progression (9.9 vs 2.3 months; P=0.003) and overall survival (15.4 vs 3.6; P=0.031) than patients with high levels of both RRM1 and RRM2. Ribonucleotide reductase subunit M1 and RRM2 mRNA expression in lung adenocarcinoma tumours is associated with clinical outcome to docetaxel/gemcitabine. Prospective studies are warranted to evaluate the role of these markers in tailoring chemotherapy