Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung

Erwartungen über den Wahlausgang haben einen festen Platz sowohl in Rational-Choice-Theorien des Wählerverhaltens als auch in stärker sozialpsychologisch orientierten Ansätzen. Die Bildung von Erwartungen und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung ist dabei jedoch ein noch relativ unerforschtes Gebiet. In diesem Beitrag werden anhand von Wahlstudien für Belgien, Österreich und Deutschland verschiedene Fragen der Erwartungsbildung und ihrer Auswirkungen untersucht. Zunächst wird die Qualität der Gesamterwartungen analysiert und verschiedene Faktoren identifiziert, die einen systematischen Einfluss auf die Erwartungsbildung haben. Im zweiten Schritt wenden wir uns den Einzelerwartungen über verschiedene Parteien und Koalitionen zu und finden eine moderate Verzerrung zugunsten der präferierten Parteien und Koalitionen. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass der Effekt des Wunschdenkens mit dem politischen Wissen und dem Bildungsgrad abnimmt. Schließlich werden in einem letzten Schritt zwei unterschiedliche Logiken für die Auswirkungen von Erwartungen getestet, das rationale Kalkül des koalitionsstrategischen Wählens zur Vermeidung der Stimmenvergeudung sowie der sozialpsychologisch begründete Bandwagon-Effekt. Das Ausmaß an politischem Wissen scheint dabei eine zentrale vermittelnde Variable zwischen den beiden Logiken zu sein

Progress in resolving Hanford Site high-level waste tank safety issues

Interim storage of alkaline, high-level radioactive waste, from two generations of spent fuel reprocessing and waste management activities, has resulted in the accumulation of 238 million liters of waste in Hanford Site single and double-shell tanks. Before the 1990`s, the stored waste was believed to be: (1) chemically unreactive under its existing storage conditions and plausible accident scenarios; and (2) chemically stable. This paradigm was proven incorrect when detailed evaluation of tank contents and behavior revealed a number of safety issues and that the waste was generating flammable and noxious gases. In 1990, the Waste Tank Safety Program was formed to focus on identifying safety issues and resolving the ferrocyanide, flammable gas, organic, high heat, noxious vapor, and criticality issues. The tanks of concern were placed on Watch Lists by safety issue. This paper summarizes recent progress toward resolving Hanford Site high-level radioactive waste tank safety issues, including modeling, and analyses, laboratory experiments, monitoring upgrades, mitigation equipment, and developing a strategy to screen tanks for safety issues

On plexus representation of dissimilarities

Correspondence analysis has found widespread application in analysing vegetation gradients. However, it is not clear how it is robust to situations where structures other than a simple gradient exist. The introduction of instrumental variables in canonical correspondence analysis does not avoid these difficulties. In this paper I propose to examine some simple methods based on the notion of the plexus (sensu McIntosh) where graphs or networks are used to display some of the structure of the data so that an informed choice of models is possible. I showthat two different classes of plexus model are available. These classes are distinguished by the use in one case of a global Euclidean model to obtain well-separated pair decomposition (WSPD) of a set of points which implicitly involves all dissimilarities, while in the other a Riemannian view is taken and emphasis is placed locally, i.e., on small dissimilarities. I showan example of each of these classes applied to vegetation data

Highly Selective Phosgene-Free Carbamoylation of Aniline by Dimethyl Carbonate under Continuous-Flow Conditions

Over the last 20 years organic carbamates have found numerous applications in pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, dyes, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and as protecting groups and intermediates for polyurethane synthesis. Recently, in order to avoid phosgene-based synthesis of carbamates, many environmentally benign and alternative pathways have been investigated. However, few examples of carbamoylation of aniline in continuous-flow apparatus have been reported. In this work, we report a high-yielding, dimethyl carbonate (DMC)-mediated carbamoylation of aniline in a fixed-bed continuously fed reactor employing basic zinc carbonate as catalyst. Several variables of the system have been investigated (i.e. molar ratio of reagents , flow rate, and reaction temperature) to optimize the operating conditions of the system

Understanding waste phenomenology to reduce the amount of sampling and analysis required to resolve Hanford waste tank safety issues

Safety issues associated with Hanford Site waste tanks arose because of inadequate safety analyses and high levels of uncertainty over the release of radioactivity resulting from condensed phase exothermic chemical reactions (organic solvent fires, organic complexant-nitrate reactions, and ferrocyanide-nitrate reactions). The approach to resolving the Organic Complexant, Organic Solvent, and Ferrocyanide safety issues has changed considerably since 1990. The approach formerly utilized core sampling and extensive analysis of the samples with the expectation the data would provide insight into the hazard. This resulted in high costs and the generation of a large amount of data that was of limited value in resolving the safety issues. The new approach relies on an understanding of the hazard phenomenology to focus sampling and analysis on those analytes that are key to ensuring safe storage of the waste