What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Sustainable management and utilisation of the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly to seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: (A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office's GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; (B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5 and the state of the NWS; and (C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We show that the GloSea5 system can be inadequate for simulating the NWS directly (approach A). We explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis (approach B). We find some statistically significant relationships and present a skillful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We find large-scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible (approach C). We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated with the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS and consider the research priorities for their development

Connecting up strategy: are senior strategy directors a missing link?

With companies being exhorted to become more strategically agile and internally connected, this article examines the role of the Senior Strategy Director, the executive tasked specifically with internal strategy. In particular, it explores what they do, what specific capabilities they deploy to enable effective contribution to the company, and in what ways they facilitate the connectedness of strategy. An analysis of multiple interviews over time with Senior Strategy Directors of large companies shows the vital and challenging role these executives play in both shaping, connecting up, and executing strategy. This article identifies the particular capabilities necessary for Senior Strategy Directors to perform their role and shows how it all depends upon their skilful deployment. These findings have significant implications for understanding unfolding micro-processes of strategy in large organizations, for assumptions about the skills and capabilities necessary to be an effective Senior Strategy Director, and for business schools in terms of the content and style of strategy courses they provide

Semi-linear gravitational lens inversion

We describe a new method for analyzing gravitational lens images, for the case where the source light distribution is pixelized. The method is suitable for high resolution, high S/N data of a multiply-imaged extended source. For a given mass distribution, we show that the step of inverting the image to obtain the deconvolved pixelized source light distribution, and the uncertainties, is a linear one. This means that the only parameters of the non-linear problem are those required to model the mass distribution. This greatly simplifies the search for a min.-chi^2 fit to the data and speeds up the inversion. The method is extended in a straightforward way to include linear regularization. We apply the method to simulated Einstein ring images and demonstrate the effectiveness of the inversion for both the unregularized and regularized cases.Comment: to appear in Ap

Lens magnification by CL0024+1654 in the U and R band

[ABRIDGED] We estimate the total mass distribution of the galaxy cluster CL0024+1654 from the measured source depletion due to lens magnification in the R band. Within a radius of 0.54Mpc/h, a total projected mass of (8.1+/-3.2)*10^14 M_sol/h (EdS) is measured, which corresponds to a mass- to-light ratio of M/L(B)=470+/-180. We compute the luminosity function of CL0024+1654 in order to estimate contamination of the background source counts from cluster galaxies. Three different magnification-based reconstruction methods are employed using both local and non-local techniques. We have modified the standard single power-law slope number count theory to incorporate a break and applied this to our observations. Fitting analytical magnification profiles of different cluster models to the observed number counts, we find that the cluster is best described either by a NFW model with scale radius r_s=334+/-191 kpc/h and normalisation kappa_s=0.23+/-0.08 or a power-law profile with slope xi=0.61+/-0.11, central surface mass density kappa_0=1.52+/-0.20 and assuming a core radius of r_core=35 kpc/h. The NFW model predicts that the cumulative projected mass contained within a radius R scales as M(<R)=2.9*10^14*(R/1')^[1.3-0.5lg (R/1')] M_sol/h. Finally, we have exploited the fact that flux magnification effectively enables us to probe deeper than the physical limiting magnitude of our observations in searching for a change of slope in the U band number counts. We rule out both a total flattening of the counts with a break up to U_AB<=26.6 and a change of slope, reported by some studies, from dlog N/dm=0.4->0.15 up to U_AB<=26.4 with 95% confidence.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, submitted to A&A. New version includes more robust U band break analysis and contamination estimates, plus new plot

Cassiopeia A: dust factory revealed via submillimetre polarimetry

If Type-II supernovae - the evolutionary end points of short-lived, massive stars - produce a significant quantity of dust (>0.1 M_sun) then they can explain the rest-frame far-infrared emission seen in galaxies and quasars in the first Gyr of the Universe. Submillimetre observations of the Galactic supernova remnant, Cas A, provided the first observational evidence for the formation of significant quantities of dust in Type-II supernovae. In this paper we present new data which show that the submm emission from Cas A is polarised at a level significantly higher than that of its synchrotron emission. The orientation is consistent with that of the magnetic field in Cas A, implying that the polarised submm emission is associated with the remnant. No known mechanism would vary the synchrotron polarisation in this way and so we attribute the excess polarised submm flux to cold dust within the remnant, providing fresh evidence that cosmic dust can form rapidly. This is supported by the presence of both polarised and unpolarised dust emission in the north of the remnant, where there is no contamination from foreground molecular clouds. The inferred dust polarisation fraction is unprecedented (f_pol ~ 30%) which, coupled with the brief timescale available for grain alignment (<300 yr), suggests that supernova dust differs from that seen in other Galactic sources (where f_pol=2-7%), or that a highly efficient grain alignment process must operate in the environment of a supernova remnant.Comment: In press at MNRAS, 10 pages, print in colou

Finite Projective Spaces, Geometric Spreads of Lines and Multi-Qubits

Given a (2N - 1)-dimensional projective space over GF(2), PG(2N - 1, 2), and its geometric spread of lines, there exists a remarkable mapping of this space onto PG(N - 1, 4) where the lines of the spread correspond to the points and subspaces spanned by pairs of lines to the lines of PG(N - 1, 4). Under such mapping, a non-degenerate quadric surface of the former space has for its image a non-singular Hermitian variety in the latter space, this quadric being {\it hyperbolic} or {\it elliptic} in dependence on N being {\it even} or {\it odd}, respectively. We employ this property to show that generalized Pauli groups of N-qubits also form two distinct families according to the parity of N and to put the role of symmetric operators into a new perspective. The N=4 case is taken to illustrate the issue.Comment: 3 pages, no figures/tables; V2 - short introductory paragraph added; V3 - to appear in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

[NII] fine-structure emission at 122 and 205um in a galaxy at z=2.6: a globally dense star-forming interstellar medium

© 2020. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.We present new observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array of the 122um and 205um fine-structure line emission of singly-ionised nitrogen in a strongly lensed starburst galaxy at z=2.6. The 122/205um [NII] line ratio is sensitive to electron density, n_e, in the ionised interstellar medium, and we use this to measure n_e~300cm^-3 averaged across the galaxy. This is over an order of magnitude higher than the Milky Way average, but comparable to localised Galactic star-forming regions. Combined with observations of the atomic carbon (CI(1-0)) and carbon monoxide (CO(4-3)) in the same system, we reveal the conditions in this intensely star-forming system. The majority of the molecular interstellar medium has been driven to high density, and the resultant conflagration of star formation produces a correspondingly dense ionised phase, presumably co-located with myriad HII regions that litter the gas-rich disk.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Combining high conductivity with complete optical transparency: A band-structure approach

A comparison of the structural, optical and electronic properties of the recently discovered transparent conducting oxide (TCO), nanoporous Ca12Al14O33, with those of the conventional TCO's (such as Sc-doped CdO) indicates that this material belongs conceptually to a new class of transparent conductors. For this class of materials, we formulate criteria for the successful combination of high electrical conductivity with complete transparency in the visible range. Our analysis suggests that this set of requirements can be met for a group of novel materials called electrides.Comment: 3 pages, 3 figures, submitted for publicatio

Vacuum heat treatments of titanium porous structures

Additive manufacturing (AM) of Ti-6Al-4V enables rapid fabrication of complex parts, including porous lattices which are of interest for aerospace, automotive, or biomedical applications, however currently the fatigue resistance of these materials is a critical limitation. Engineering the alloy microstructure provides a promising method for increasing fatigue strength, but conventional heat treatment procedures are known to produce atypical results for AM and porous samples, and must therefore be optimised for these materials. Using vacuum heat treatment, microstructures comparable to those observed for conventional wrought and heat treated alloys were achieved with porous AM Ti-6Al-4V. Fine lamellar microstructures were produced using sub-transus heat treatment at 920 °C, while coarse lamellar microstructures were produced using super-transus heat treatment at 1050 °C or 1200 °C. Increasing the heat treatment temperature increased the elastic modulus from 2552 ± 22 MPa to a maximum of 2968 ± 45 MPa, due to strut sintering increasing the effective strut thickness, and removal of prior β-grain orientation. Heat treatment eliminated the brittle α’ martensite phase in favour of an α + β mixture, where the phase boundaries and β-phase provide greater resistance to crack propagation. Super-transus heat treatments increased the α-lath size which typically reduces crack propagation resistance, however strut sintering reduced surface crack initiation sites, increasing the fatigue strength by 75% from 4.86 MPa for the as-built material to a maximum of 8.51 MPa after 1200 °C heat treatment. This work demonstrates that vacuum heat treatment is effective at tuning the micro- and macro-structure of porous AM Ti-6Al-4V, thereby improving the crucial fatigue resistance