Lifelong exposure to air pollution and cognitive development in young children: the UK Millennium Cohort Study

Background. Evidence about the impact of air pollution on cognitive development of children has been growing but remains inconclusive. Objectives. To investigate the association of air pollution exposure and the cognitive development of children in the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Methods. Longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of 13,058-14,614 singleton births, 2000-2002, analysed at age 3, 5 and 7 years for associations between exposure from birth to selected air pollutants and cognitive scores for: School Readiness, Naming Vocabulary (age 3 and 5), Picture Similarity, Pattern Construction (age 5 and 7), Number Skills and Word Reading. Multivariable regression models took account of design stratum, clustering and sampling and attrition weights with adjustment for major risk factors, including age, gender, ethnicity, region, household income, parents' education, language, siblings and second-hand tobacco smoke. Results: In fully adjusted models, no associations were observed between pollutant exposures and cognitive scores at age 3. At age 5, particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) were associated with lower scores for Naming Vocabulary but no other outcome except for SO2 and Picture Similarity. At age 7, PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 were associated with lower scores for Pattern Construction, SO2 with lower Number Skills and SO2 and ozone with poorer Word Reading scores, but PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 were associated with higher Word Reading scores. Adverse effects of air pollutants represented a deficit of up to around 4 percentile points in Naming Vocabulary at age 5 for an interquartile range increase in pollutant concentration, which is smaller than the impact of various social determinants of cognitive development. Conclusions: In a study of multiple pollutants and outcomes, we found mixed evidence from this UK-wide cohort study for association between lifetime exposure to neighbourhood air pollutants and cognitive development to age 7 years

Concurrent validity of an Estimator of Weekly Alcohol Consumption (EWAC) based on the Extended AUDIT

Background and Aims: The 3-question Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) is frequently used in healthcare for screening and brief advice about levels of alcohol consumption. AUDIT-C scores (0–12) provide feedback as categories of risk rather than estimates of actual alcohol intake, an important metric for behaviour change. The study aimed to (a) develop a continuous metric from the Extended AUDIT-C expressed in United Kingdom (UK) units (8g pure ethanol), offering equivalent accuracy, and providing a direct estimator of weekly alcohol consumption (EWAC) and (b) evaluate the EWAC’s bias and error using the Graduated-Frequency (GF) questionnaire as a reference standard of alcohol consumption. Design: Cross-sectional diagnostic study based on a nationally-representative survey. Settings: Community-dwelling households in England. Participants: 22,404 household residents aged 16 years reporting drinking alcohol at least occasionally. Measurements: Computer-assisted personal interviews consisting of (a) AUDIT questionnaire with extended response items (the ‘Extended AUDIT’) and (b) GF. Primary outcomes were: mean deviation <1 UK unit (metric of bias); root mean squared deviation <2 UK units (metric of total error) between EWAC and GF. The secondary outcome was the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve for predicting alcohol consumption in excess of 14 and 35 UK units. Findings: EWAC had a positive bias of 0.2 UK units [95% confidence interval: 0.08, 0.4] compared with GF. Deviations were skewed: while the mean error was ±11 UK units/week [9.5, 11.9], in half of participants the deviation between EWAC and GF was between 0 and ±2.1 UK units/week. EWAC predicted consumption in excess of 14 UK units/week with a significantly greater area under the curve (0.918 [0.914, 0.923]) than AUDIT-C (0.870 [0.864, 0.876]) or the full AUDIT (0.854 [0.847, 0.860]). Conclusions: A new estimator of weekly alcohol consumption (EWAC), which uses answers to the Extended Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Extended AUDIT-C), meets the targeted bias tolerance. It is superior in accuracy to AUDIT-C and the full AUDIT when predicting consumption thresholds, making it a reliable complement to the Extended AUDIT-C for health promotion interventions

Feasibility study of hospital antimicrobial stewardship analytics using electronic health records

Background: Hospital antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programmes are multidisciplinary initiatives to optimise the use of antimicrobials. Most hospitals depend on time-consuming manual audits to monitor clinicians’ prescribing. But much of the information needed could be sourced from electronic health records (EHRs). Objectives: To develop an informatics methodology to analyse characteristics of hospital AMS practice using routine electronic prescribing and laboratory records. Methods: Feasibility study using electronic prescribing, laboratory and clinical coding records from adult patients admitted to six specialties at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK (September 2017–August 2018). The study involved: (1) a review of antimicrobial stewardship standards of care; (2) their translation into concepts measurable from commonly available EHRs; (3) pilot application in an EHR cohort study (n=61,679 admissions). Results: We developed data modelling methods to characterise the use of antimicrobials (antimicrobial therapy episode linkage methods, therapy table, therapy changes). Prescriptions were linked into antimicrobial therapy episodes (mean 2.4 prescriptions/episode; mean length of therapy of 5.8 days) enabling production of several actionable findings. For example, 22% of therapy episodes for low-severity community acquired pneumonia were congruent with prescribing guidelines, with a tendency to use antibiotics with a broader spectrum. Analysis of therapy changes revealed a delay in switching from intravenous to oral therapy by an average 3.6 days [95% CI: 3.4; 3.7]. Performance of microbial cultures prior to treatment initiation occurred in just 22% of antibacterial prescriptions. The proposed methods enabled fine-grained monitoring of AMS practice all the way down to specialties, wards, and individual clinical teams by case mix, enabling more meaningful peer comparison. Conclusions: It is feasible to use hospital EHRs to construct rapid, meaningful measures of prescribing quality with potential to support quality improvement interventions (audit/feedback to prescribers), engagement with front-line clinicians on optimising prescribing, and AMS impact evaluation studies

Concurrent validity of an estimator of weekly alcohol consumption (EWAC) based on the extended AUDIT

Background and Aims The three-question Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) is frequently used in healthcare for screening and brief advice about levels of alcohol consumption. AUDIT-C scores (0–12) provide feedback as categories of risk rather than estimates of actual alcohol intake, an important metric for behaviour change. The study aimed to (i) develop a continuous metric from the Extended AUDIT-C expressed in United Kingdom (UK) units (8 g pure ethanol), offering equivalent accuracy, and providing a direct estimator of weekly alcohol consumption (EWAC) and (ii) evaluate the EWAC's bias and error using the graduated-frequency (GF) questionnaire as a reference standard of alcohol consumption. Design Cross-sectional diagnostic study based on a nationally-representative survey. Settings Community dwelling households in England. Participants A total of 22 404 household residents aged ≥16 years reporting drinking alcohol at least occasionally. Measurements Computer-assisted personal interviews consisting of (i) AUDIT questionnaire with extended response items (the ‘Extended AUDIT’) and (ii) GF. Primary outcomes were: mean deviation <1 UK unit (metric of bias); root-mean-square deviation <2 UK units (metric of total error) between EWAC and GF. The secondary outcome was the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve for predicting alcohol consumption in excess of 14 and 35 UK units. Findings EWAC had a positive bias of 0.2 UK units (95% CI = 0.08, 0.4) compared with GF. Deviations were skewed: whereas the mean error was ±11 UK units/week [9.5, 11.9], in half of participants the deviation between EWAC and GF was between 0 and ±2.1 UK units/week. EWAC predicted consumption in excess of 14 UK units/week with a significantly greater area under the curve (0.918 [0.914, 0.923]) than AUDIT-C (0.870 [0.864, 0.876]) or the full AUDIT (0.854 [0.847, 0.860]). Conclusions A new estimator of weekly alcohol consumption, which uses answers to the Extended AUDIT-C, meets the targeted bias tolerance. It is superior in accuracy to AUDIT-C and the full 10-item AUDIT when predicting consumption thresholds, making it a reliable complement to the Extended AUDIT-C for health promotion interventions

COVID-19 infection and attributable mortality in UK care homes: Cohort study using active surveillance and electronic records (March-June 2020)

Background: epidemiological data on COVID-19 infection in care homes are scarce. We analysed data from a large provider of long-term care for older people to investigate infection and mortality during the first wave of the pandemic. Methods: cohort study of 179 UK care homes with 9,339 residents and 11,604 staff. We used manager-reported daily tallies to estimate the incidence of suspected and confirmed infection and mortality in staff and residents. Individual-level electronic health records from 8,713 residents were used to model risk factors for confirmed infection, mortality and estimate attributable mortality. Results: 2,075/9,339 residents developed COVID-19 symptoms (22.2% [95% confidence interval: 21.4%; 23.1%]), while 951 residents (10.2% [9.6%; 10.8%]) and 585 staff (5.0% [4.7%; 5.5%]) had laboratory-confirmed infections. The incidence of confirmed infection was 152.6 [143.1; 162.6] and 62.3 [57.3; 67.5] per 100,000 person-days in residents and staff, respectively. Sixty-eight percent (121/179) of care homes had at least one COVID-19 infection or COVID-19-related death. Lower staffing ratios and higher occupancy rates were independent risk factors for infection. Out of 607 residents with confirmed infection, 217 died (case fatality rate: 35.7% [31.9%; 39.7%]). Mortality in residents with no direct evidence of infection was twofold higher in care homes with outbreaks versus those without (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2 [1.8; 2.6]). Conclusions: findings suggest many deaths occurred in people who were infected with COVID-19, but not tested. Higher occupancy and lower staffing levels were independently associated with risks of infection. Protecting staff and residents from infection requires regular testing for COVID-19 and fundamental changes to staffing and care home occupancy

Health Data Linkage for Public Interest Research in the UK: Key Obstacles and Solutions

Introduction: Analysis of linked health data can generate important, even life-saving, insights into population health. Yet obstacles both legal and organisational in nature can impede this work. Approach: We focus on three UK infrastructures set up to link and share data for research: the Administrative Data Research Network, NHS Digital, and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Bringing an interdisciplinary perspective, we identify key issues underpinning their challenges and successes in linking health data for research. Results: We identify examples of uncertainty surrounding legal powers to share and link data, and around data protection obligations, as well as systemic delays and historic public backlash. These issues require updated official guidance on the relevant law, approaches to linkage which are planned for impact and ongoing utility, greater transparency between data providers and researchers, and engagement with the patient population which is both high-profile and carefully considered. Conclusions: Health data linkage for research presents varied challenges, to which there can be no single solution. Our recommendations would require action from a number of data providers and regulators to be meaningfully advanced. This illustrates the scale and complexity of the challenge of health data linkage, in the UK and beyond: a challenge which our case studies suggest no single organisation can combat alone. Planned programmes of linkage are critical because they allow time for organisations to address these challenges without adversely affecting the feasibility of individual research projects.</p

Health Data Linkage for Public Interest Research in the UK: Key Obstacles and Solutions

ntroduction: Analysis of linked health data can generate important, even life-saving, insights into populationhealth. Yet obstacles both legal and organisational in nature can impede this work. Approach: We focus on three UK infrastructures set up to link and share data for research: the AdministrativeData Research Network, NHS Digital, and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank.Bringing an interdisciplinary perspective, we identify key issues underpinning their challenges andsuccesses in linking health data for research. Results:We identify examples of uncertainty surrounding legal powers to share and link data, and around dataprotection obligations, as well as systemic delays and historic public backlash. These issues requireupdated official guidance on the relevant law, approaches to linkage which are planned for impactand ongoing utility, greater transparency between data providers and researchers, and engagementwith the patient population which is both high-profile and carefully considered.ConclusionsHealth data linkage for research presents varied challenges, to which there can be no single solution.Our recommendations would require action from a number of data providers and regulators tobe meaningfully advanced. This illustrates the scale and complexity of the challenge of health datalinkage, in the UK and beyond: a challenge which our case studies suggest no single organisation cancombat alone. Planned programmes of linkage are critical because they allow time for organisationsto address these challenges without adversely affecting the feasibility of individual research project

Complementing chronic frailty assessment at hospital admission with an electronic frailty index (FI-Laboratory) comprising routine blood test results

BACKGROUND: Acutely ill and frail older adults have complex social and health care needs. It is important to understand how this complexity affects acute outcomes for admission to hospital. We validated a frailty index using routine admission laboratory tests with outcomes after patients were admitted to hospital. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of older adults admitted to a large tertiary hospital in the United Kingdom, we created a frailty index from routine admission laboratory investigations (FI-Laboratory) linked to data comprising hospital outcomes. We evaluated the association between the FI-Laboratory and total days spent in hospital, discharge to a higher level of care, readmission and mortality. RESULTS: Of 2552 admissions among 1750 older adults, we were able to generate FI-Laboratory values for 2254 admissions (88.3% of the cohort). More than half of admitted patients were women (55.3%) and the mean age was 84.6 (SD 14.0) years. We found that the FI-Laboratory correlated weakly with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; r2 = 0.09). An increase in the CFS and the equivalent of 3 additional abnormal laboratory test results in the FI-Laboratory, respectively, were associated with an increased proportion of inpatient days (rate ratios [RRs] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.52; and 1.47, 95% CI 1.41-1.54), discharge to a higher level of care (odd ratios [ORs] 1.39, 95% CI 1.27-1.52; and 1.30, 95% CI 1.16-1.47) and increased readmission rate (hazard ratios [HRs] 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.37; and 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.26). Increases in the CFS and FI-Laboratory were associated with increased mortality HRs of 1.39 (95% CI 1.28-1.51) and 1.45 (95% CI 1.37-1.54), respectively. INTERPRETATION: We determined that FI-Laboratory, distinct from baseline frailty, could be used to predict risk of many adverse outcomes. The score is therefore a useful way to quantify the degree of acute illness in frail older adults

Incidence, healthcare-seeking behaviours, antibiotic use and natural history of common infection syndromes in England: results from the Bug Watch community cohort study

Background: Better information on the typical course and management of acute common infections in the community could inform antibiotic stewardship campaigns. We aimed to investigate the incidence, management, and natural history of a range of infection syndromes (respiratory, gastrointestinal, mouth/dental, skin/soft tissue, urinary tract, and eye). Methods: Bug Watch was an online prospective community cohort study of the general population in England (2018–2019) with weekly symptom reporting for 6 months. We combined symptom reports into infection syndromes, calculated incidence rates, described the proportion leading to healthcare-seeking behaviours and antibiotic use, and estimated duration and severity. Results: The cohort comprised 873 individuals with 23,111 person-weeks follow-up. The mean age was 54 years and 528 (60%) were female. We identified 1422 infection syndromes, comprising 40,590 symptom reports. The incidence of respiratory tract infection syndromes was two per person year; for all other categories it was less than one. 194/1422 (14%) syndromes led to GP (or dentist) consultation and 136/1422 (10%) to antibiotic use. Symptoms usually resolved within a week and the third day was the most severe. Conclusions: Most people reported managing their symptoms without medical consultation. Interventions encouraging safe self-management across a range of acute infection syndromes could decrease pressure on primary healthcare services and support targets for reducing antibiotic prescribing

Antibiotic prescribing in UK care homes 2016-2017: retrospective cohort study of linked data.

BACKGROUND: Older people living in care homes are particularly susceptible to infections and antibiotics are therefore used frequently for this population. However, there is limited information on antibiotic prescribing in this setting. This study aimed to investigate the frequency, patterns and risk factors for antibiotic prescribing in a large chain of UK care homes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of administrative data from a large chain of UK care homes (resident and care home-level) linked to individual-level pharmacy data. Residents aged 65 years or older between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017 were included. Antibiotics were classified by type and as new or repeated prescriptions. Rates of antibiotic prescribing were calculated and modelled using multilevel negative binomial regression. RESULTS: 13,487 residents of 135 homes were included. The median age was 85; 63% residents were female. 28,689 antibiotic prescriptions were dispensed, the majority were penicillins (11,327, 39%), sulfonamides and trimethoprim (5818, 20%), or other antibacterials (4665, 16%). 8433 (30%) were repeat prescriptions. The crude rate of antibiotic prescriptions was 2.68 per resident year (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.64-2.71). Increased antibiotic prescribing was associated with residents requiring more medical assistance (adjusted incidence rate ratio for nursing opposed to residential care 1.21, 95% CI 1.13-1.30). Prescribing rates varied widely by care home but there were no significant associations with the care home-level characteristics available in routine data. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of antibiotic prescribing in care homes are high and there is substantial variation between homes. Further research is needed to understand the drivers of this variation to enable development of effective stewardship approaches that target the influences of prescribing