The impact of EU enlargement on migration flows

This document is a report commissioned by the Home Office in order to assess the magnitude of potential migration flows to the UK after the enlargement of the European Union (EU). The countries which are expected to join the EU on 1 May 2004 are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. The aim of the report is to provide extensive information that will be helpful in evaluating the migration potential from these countries to the UK. This is done by (i) describing the socio-economic situation of the accession countries nowadays and since the early 1990s and comparing it to that of the UK and Germany, (ii) critically reviewing the existing literature that attempts to predict the effects of the current EU enlargement on migration flows, (iii) analysing the so-called Southern enlargement (the accessions of Greece, Portugal and Spain) and comparing it to the current one, and (iv) presenting a quantitative analysis of the effect of the current enlargement on migration to the UK

Career progression and formal versus on-the-job training

We model the choice of individuals to follow or not apprenticeship training and their subsequent career. We use German administrative data, which records education, labour market transitions and wages to estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth. The model allows for returns to experience and tenure, match specific effects, job mobility and search frictions. We show how apprenticeship training affects labour market careers and we quantify its benefits, relative to the overall costs. We then use our model to show how two welfare reforms change life-cycle decisions and human capital accumulation: One is the introduction of an Earned Income Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realized matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications

Housing Expenditure and Income Inequality

The trend of rising income inequality in Germany since the mid-1990s is strongly amplified when considering income after housing expenditure. The income share of housing expenditure rose disproportionally for the bottom income quintile and fell for the top quintile. Factors contributing to these trends include declining relative costs of homeownership versus renting, changes in household structure, declining real incomes for low-income households, and residential mobility towards larger cities. Younger cohorts spend more on housing and save less than older cohorts did at the same age, which will affect future wealth accumulation, particularly at the bottom of the income distribution

Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage

We investigate the wage, employment and reallocation effects of the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany that affected 15% of all employees. Based on identification designs that exploit variation in exposure across individuals and local areas, we find that the minimum wage raised wages, but did not lower employment. It also led to the reallocation of low-wage workers from smaller to larger, from lower- to higher-paying, and from less- to more-productive establishments. This worker upgrading accounts for up to 17% of the wage increase induced by the minimum wage. Moreover, at the regional level, average establishment quality increased in more affected areas in the years following the introduction of the minimum wage

Migration outflows and optimal migration policy: rules versus discretion

We study the effects of more open borders on return migration and show that migrants are more likely to return to the origin country when migration rules are softened, because this implies that they could more easily re-migrate if return migration is unsuccessful. As a result, softening migration rules leads to lower net inflows than is generally acknowledged. We show that if government follows rules to shape the optimal migration policy, it will choose more open “borders” than were its behaviour to be discretionary. However, this requires an appropriate commitment technology. We show that electoral accountability may be a solution to the commitment problem. As a matter of fact, observed softer immigration rules in western countries suggest the effectiveness of such a mechanism.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Temporary migration programmes: the cause or antidote for migrant worker exploitation in UK agriculture

The referendum result in Britain in 2016 and the potential loss of EU labour in the advent of a “hard Brexit” has raised pressing questions for sectors that rely on EU labour, such as agriculture. Coupled with the closure of the long-standing Seasonal Agricultural Scheme in 2013, policymakers are grappling with how to satisfy one the one hand employer demands for mobility schemes, and on the other public demands for restrictive immigration policies. Labour shortages in agriculture transcend the immigration debate, raising questions for food security, the future of automation and ultimately what labour market the UK hopes to build. Temporary Migration programmes have been heralded as achieving a triple win, yet they are rightly criticized for breeding bonded labour and exploitation. In lieu of a dedicated EU labour force agricultural employers are calling for the establishment of a new seasonal scheme. In this paper we explore whether the absence of a temporary migration programme resolves the potential exploitation of migrant workers. We argue that the absence of a TMP is not an antidote to migrant exploitation, and that a socially just TMP which is built around migrant agency may be the most palpable solution

Occupational choice of return migrants in Moldova

This paper analyzes the occupational choice of return migrants. Using the survey data on different aspects of migration in Moldova, we find that those who stayed illegally in the host country tend to go into wage employment on return to the home country. We also show that relatively better educated migrants tend not to be in formal employment (i.e., appear not to participate in the labor market), whereas those with relatively lower skills or who obtained a worse-than-expected outcome in the host country are more likely to be wage employed in the home country on return. We offer an economic analysis of these paradoxical results

When does hate hurt the most? Generational differences in the association between ethnic and racial harassment, ethnic attachment, and mental health

Using data from Understanding Society, this paper provides a comprehensive account of the associations between ethnic and racial harassment (ERH), mental health and ethnic attachment for ethnic minorities living in England. We find an association between ERH and poor mental health measured using GHQ for ethnic minorities, even after controlling for a rich array of individual and area level characteristics. We find that ethnic attachment, measured as ethnic identity and co-ethnic friendship ties, moderates this association but solely for UK born ethnic minorities. In contrast to previous research, we further find that living in areas of high co-ethnic concentration appears to exacerbate the association between ERH and mental ill-health