Decision support for selecting a shortlist of electricity-saving options: a modified SMAA approach

This paper describes an application providing decision support for generating a shortlist of promising electricity-saving options for households in South Africa. The decision problem is characterised by constraints on time and other resources, and by substantial uncertainty around the preferences for energy-related attributes and the performance of alternatives on those attributes. We use a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis model to incorporate preferential uncertainties, and adapt this for use with quantiles and other "simplified" formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations

Operational research (ers) in development: Growing a new generation of operational researchers

This paper explores the theme of training operational research (OR) practitioners in South Africa by critically evaluating a Masters program in Operational Research in Development (ORD), launched in 2005 at the University of Cape Town. This program was specifically focused on applying OR to the problems of the developing world in general and Africa in particular. We describe the program and review the practical work undertaken by students participating in the program. Topics range widely across domains including health (anti-malarial drug resistance); poverty (food banking); governance (NGO management structures and monitoring of local government performance) and sustainable livelihoods (spaza shop operations). We use the review to highlight strengths and weaknesses of the program, as well as challenges faced in the OR education in South Africa at a postgraduate level

Breeding systems of floral colour forms in the Drosera cistiflora species complex

The study was supported by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant 46372 to SDJ).Variation in plant breeding systems has implications for pollinator‐mediated selection on floral traits and the ecology of populations. Here we evaluate pollinator contribution to seed production, self‐compatibility and pollen limitation in different floral colour forms of Drosera cistiflora sensu lato (Droseraceae). These insectivorous perennial plants are endemic to fynbos and renosterveld vegetation in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and the species complex includes five floral colour forms (pink, purple, red, white and yellow), some of which are known to be pollinated by beetles. Controlled hand‐pollination experiments were conducted in 15 populations of D. cistiflora s.l. (two to four populations per floral colour form) to test whether the colour forms vary in their degree of self‐compatibility and their ability to produce seeds through autonomous self‐fertilization. Yellow‐flowered forms were highly self‐incompatible, while other floral colour forms exhibited partial self‐compatibility. Seed set resulting from autonomous selfing was very low, and pollinator dependence indices were high in all populations. Since hand cross‐pollination resulted in greater seed set than open pollination in 13 of the 15 populations, we inferred that seed production is generally pollen‐limited.Drosera cistiflora s.l. typically exhibits high levels of pollinator dependence and pollen limitation. This is unusual among Drosera species worldwide and suggests that pollinators are likely to mediate strong selection on attractive traits such as floral colour and size in D. cistiflora s.l. These results also suggest that the floral colour forms of D. cistiflora s.l. which are rare and threatened are likely to be vulnerable to local extinction if mutualisms were to collapse indefinitely.PostprintPeer reviewe

The non-clonality of drug resistance in Beijing-genotype isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis from the Western Cape of South Africa

Background. The Beijing genotype of M. tuberculosis is a virulent strain that is disseminating worldwide and has a strong association with drug resistance. In the Western Cape of South Africa, epidemiological studies have identified the R220 cluster of the Beijing genotype as a major contributor to a recent outbreak of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Although the outbreak is considered to be due to clonal transmission, the relationship among drug resistant isolates has not yet been established. Results. To better understand the evolution of drug resistance among these strains, 14 drug-resistant clinical isolates of the Beijing genotype were sequenced by whole-genome sequencing, including eight from R220 and six from a more ancestral Beijing cluster, R86, for comparison. While each cluster shares a distinct resistance mutation for isoniazid, mapping of other drug-resistance mutations onto a phylogenetic tree constructed from single nucleotide polymorphisms shows that resistance mutations to many drugs have arisen multiple times independently within each cluster of isolates. Thus, drug resistance among these isolates appears to be acquired, not clonally derived. This observation suggests that, although the Beijing genotype as a whole might have selective advantages enabling its rapid dissemination, the XDR isolates are relatively less fit and do not propagate well. Although it has been hypothesized that the increased frequency of drug resistance in some Beijing lineages might be caused by a mutator phenotype, no significant shift in synonymous substitution patterns is observed in the genomes. Conclusion. While MDR-TB is spreading by transmission in the Western Cape, our data suggests that further drug resistance (i.e. XDR-TB) at this stage is acquired.Peer Reviewe

Decision support for selecting a shortlist of electricity-saving options: a modified SMAA approach

This paper describes an application providing decision support for generating a shortlist of promising electricity-saving options for households in South Africa. The decision problem is characterised by constraints on time and other resources, and by substantial uncertainty around the preferences for energy-related attributes and the performance of alternatives on those attributes. We use a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis model to incorporate preferential uncertainties, and adapt this for use with quantiles and other "simplified" formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations

Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions via system dynamics and survey data

An application of building a system dynamics model of the way households might respond to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of electricity) is described in this paper. A literature review of past research is used to build an initial integrated model of household consumption, and this model is used to generate a small number of research hypotheses about how households possessing different characteristics might react to various types of interventions. These hypotheses are tested using data gathered from an efficiency intervention conducted in a town in the South African Western Cape in which households were able to exchange regular light bulbs for more efficient compact fluorescent lamp light bulbs. Our experiences are (a) that a system dynamics approach proved useful in advancing a non-traditional point of view for which, for historical and economic reasons, data were not abundantly available; (b) that, in areas where traditional models are heavily quantitative, some scepticism to a system dynamics model may be expected; and (c) that a statistical comparison of model results by means of empirical data may be an effective tool in reducing such scepticism

Operational Research(ers) in development: Growing a new generation of operational researchers

This paper explores the theme of training operational research (OR) practitioners in South Africa by critically evaluating a Masters program in Operational Research in Development (ORD), launched in 2005 at the University of Cape Town. This program was specifically focused on applying OR to the problems of the developing world in general and Africa in particular. We describe the program and review the practical work undertaken by students participating in the program. Topics range widely across domains including health (antimalarial drug resistance); poverty (food banking); governance (NGO management structures and monitoring of local government performance) and sustainable livelihoods (spaza shop operations). We use the review to highlight strengths and weaknesses of the program, as well as challenges faced in the OR education in South Africa at a postgraduate level

In vitro analysis of rates and spectra of mutations in a polymorphic region of the Rv0746 PE_PGRS gene of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

An assay modeled on a known polymorphism in the PE_PGRS9 gene of Mycobacterium tuberculosis was designed to assess the mutability of a sequence containing interspersed PGRS repeats. Application of the assay in Mycobacterium smegmatis revealed sequence plasticity: in addition to recapitulating the mutation on which it was based, other mutations likely mediated by replication slippage between PGRS repeats were detected. However, the mutation rates argued against marked hypermutability of such sequences in mycobacteria