Determination of CME orientation and consequences for their propagation

The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME orientation, especially from image data, remains a challenging task to perform. This study aims to provide a reference to different CME orientation determination methods in the near-Sun environment. Also, it aims to investigate the non-radial flow in the sheath region of the interplanetary CME (ICME) in order to provide the first proxy to relate the ICME orientation with its propagation. We investigated 22 isolated CME-ICME events in the period 2008-2015. We determined the CME orientation in the near-Sun environment using the following: 1) a 3D reconstruction of the CME with the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model applied to coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions and; 2) an ellipse fitting applied to single spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and field data and also investigated the non-radial flow (NRF) in its sheath region. The ability of GCS and ellipse fitting to determine the CME orientation is found to be limited to reliably distinguish only between the high or low inclination of the events. Most of the CME-ICME pairs under investigation were found to be characterized by a low inclination. For the majority of CME-ICME pairs, we obtain consistent estimations of the tilt from remote and in situ data. The observed NRFs in the sheath region show a greater y direction to z direction flow ratio for high-inclination events, indicating that the CME orientation could have an impact on the CME propagation

Geoeffectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections in the SOHO era

The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare parameters as well as the effect of successive-CME occurrence in changing the probability for a certain range of Dst index values, were examined. The results confirm some of already known relationships between remotely-observed properties of solar eruptive events and geomagnetic storms, namely the importance of initial CME speed, apparent width, source position, and the associated solar flare class. In this paper we quantify these relationships in a form to be used for space weather forecasting in future. The results of the statistical study are employed to construct an empirical statistical model for predicting the probability of the geomagnetic storm intensity based on remote solar observations of CMEs and flares

Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude

Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Validation of predictions for cycles 1-24 shows high correlations between the true and predicted cycle amplitudes reaching r = 0.93 for the total sunspot numbers. The lead time of the predictions varies from 2 to 49 months, with a mean value of 21 months. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the north and the south hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate predictions than that using total sunspot numbers. The advantages reach 27% and 11% on average in terms of rms and correlation coefficient, respectively. The superior performance is also confirmed with hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. The maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a solar cycle serves as a reliable precursor of the subsequent cycle amplitude. Furthermore, our findings provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behaviour of the solar activity and solar magnetic field and enhance solar cycle prediction methods.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomy & Astrophysic

CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geoeffectiveness : The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in 2017 Early September

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst(min)=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its B-z until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the B-z amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum B-z amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).Peer reviewe

CME-HSS Interaction and Characteristics Tracked from Sun to Earth

In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011, near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 R⊙ up to 3 R⊙. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30∘ due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME–HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory – ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth’s magnetosphere

Evidence of a complex structure within the 2013 August 19 coronal mass ejection: Radial and longitudinal evolution in the inner heliosphere

Context. Late on 2013 August 19, a coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from an active region located near the far-side central meridian from Earth’s perspective. The event and its accompanying shock were remotely observed by the STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and SOHO spacecraft. The interplanetary counterpart (ICME) was intercepted by MESSENGER near 0.3 au and by both STEREO-A and STEREO-B near 1 au, which were separated from each other by 78° in heliolongitude. Aims. The main objective of this study is to follow the radial and longitudinal evolution of the ICME throughout the inner heliosphere and to examine possible scenarios for the different magnetic flux-rope configuration observed on the solar disk and measured in situ at the locations of MESSENGER and STEREO-A, separated by 15° in heliolongitude, and at STEREO-B, which detected the ICME flank. Methods. Solar disk observations are used to estimate the “magnetic flux-rope type”, namely, the magnetic helicity, axis orientation, and axial magnetic field direction of the flux rope. The graduated cylindrical shell model is used to reconstruct the CME in the corona. The analysis of in situ data, specifically the plasma and magnetic field, is used to estimate the global interplanetary shock geometry and to derive the magnetic flux-rope type at different in situ locations, which is compared to the type estimated from solar disk observations. The elliptical cylindrical analytical model is used for the in situ magnetic flux-rope reconstruction. Results. Based on the CME geometry and on the spacecraft configuration, we find that the magnetic flux-rope structure detected at STEREO-B belongs to the same ICME detected at MESSENGER and STEREO-A. The opposite helicity deduced at STEREO-B might be due to that fact that it intercepted one of the legs of the structure far from the flux-rope axis, in contrast to STEREO-A and MESSENGER, which were crossing through the core of the magnetic flux rope. The different flux-rope orientations measured at MESSENGER and STEREO-A probably arise because the two spacecraft measure a curved, highly distorted, and rather complex magnetic flux-rope topology. The ICME may have suffered additional distortion in its evolution in the inner heliosphere, such as the west flank propagating faster than the east flank when arriving near 1 au. Conclusions. This work illustrates how a wide, curved, highly distorted, and rather complex CME showed different orientations as observed on the solar disk and measured in situ at 0.3 au and near 1 au. Furthermore, the work shows how the ambient conditions can significantly affect the expansion and propagation of the CME and ICME, introducing additional irregularities to the already asymmetric eruption. The study also manifests how these complex structures cannot be directly reconstructed with the currently available models and that multi-point analysis is of the utmost importance in such complex events.Agencia Estatal de Investigació