Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events

In 2011, one of the authors (DJB) published a report of nine experiments in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology purporting to demonstrate that an individual\u2019s cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition. To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 7 10 with an effect size (Hedges\u2019 g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 5.1 7 10 , greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for \u201cdecisive evidence\u201d in support of the experimental hypothesis. When DJB\u2019s original experiments are excluded, the combined effect size for replications by independent investigators is 0.06, z = 4.16, p = 1.1 7 10 , and the BF value is 3,853, again exceeding the criterion for \u201cdecisive evidence.\u201d The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size of the complete database to a trivial value of 0.01 is 544, and seven of eight additional statistical tests support the conclusion that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by intense \u201cp -hacking\u201d\u2014the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. P-curve analysis, a recently introduced statistical technique, estimates the true effect size of the experiments to be 0.20 for the complete database and 0.24 for the independent replications, virtually identical to the effect size of DJB\u2019s original experiments (0.22) and the closely related \u201cpresentiment\u201d experiments (0.21). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi

Strategic Manipulability is Inescapable: Gibbard-Satterthwaite without Resoluteness

The Gibbard-Satterthwaite Theorem on the manipulability of collective-choice procedures treats only of resolute procedures. Few real or reasonable procedures are resolute. We prove a generalization of Gibbard-Satterthwaite that covers the nonresolute case. It opens harder questions than it answers about the prediction of behavior and outcomes and the design of institutions

Administrative Aspects of the Digital Computer

(M.B.A

Skistodiaptomus pallidus (Copepoda: Diaptomidae) establishment in New Zealand natural lakes, and its effects on zooplankton community composition

The North American calanoid copepod Skistodiaptomus pallidus is an emerging invader globally, with non-indigenous populations recorded from constructed waters in New Zealand, Germany and Mexico since 2000. We examined the effects of S. pallidus establishment on the zooplankton community of a natural lake, Lake Kereta, where it was first recorded in late-2008, coincident with releases of domestically cultured grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). Although not present in any of our samples prior to August 2008, S. pallidus was found in all samples collected in the subsequent five years. ANOSIM indicated zooplankton community composition significantly differed between samples collected before and after S. pallidus invasion, whether the invader was included in the analysis or not. Zooplankton species affected most greatly were the copepods Calamoecia lucasi and Mesocyclops sp., which decreased in their relative importance, and the cladocerans Bosmina meridionalis and Daphnia galeata, which increased. Rotifer species were relatively unaffected. As the length of grass carp released were >6.5 cm, direct predatory effects by this species on the zooplankton community are unlikely. Associated reductions in macrophyte biomass could explain increases in the relative abundances of planktonic cladocerans (B. meridionalis and D. galeata). However, the effect of macrophyte reduction by grass carp on zooplankton communities is considered to be limited elsewhere, while the reduced macrophyte biomass cannot explain the decrease in relative abundance of the native planktonic calanoid copepod C. lucasi. Competition between C. lucasi and S. pallidus is the most compelling explanation for the reduction in importance of the native calanoid copepod species. Skistodiaptomus pallidus appears to have undergone a “boom-and-bust” cycle in Lake Kereta, increasing in relative abundance in the first three years following establishment, before declining in importance

Prospectus, August 13, 2003

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_2003/1017/thumbnail.jp

Prospectus, June 18, 2003

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_2003/1015/thumbnail.jp

S4_3 Dome Sweet Dome

In the instant classic ‘The Simpsons Movie’ the town of Springfield becomes trapped by a massive glass dome. We calculated that the residents of Springfield have at the most 28 hours to escape the dome before they suffocate to death.