Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time rational economic agents decide on the basis of the level of utility what expectation formation technology to use and as a consequence what expectations to hold. As economic decisions are conditioned on expectations holding proper or rational expectations eliminates the possibility of ex ante inefficiencies. The choice of expectation formation technology is not trivial as the paper assumes that information gathering and processing are costly. Consequently, economic agents must make informed decisions with the regard to the quality of expectation formation technologies they wish to use. The paper shows that agents' optimization over expectations not only adds on to realism, but also can carry non trivial implications for the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the paper illustrates that endogenous expectation revisions can be a source of permanent oscillations in aggregate demand and can prevent an economy from settling into a steady state. In addition, the paper quantifies intangible notions such as overheating, overborrowing, and output gap. Finally, the paper shows that active policy measures can limit inefficiencies resulting from output fluctuationsBusiness Cycles, Expectation Formation, Costly Information Acquisition.

Degradation of metallic surfaces under space conditions, with particular emphasis on hydrogen recombination processes

The widespread use of metallic structures in space technology brings risk of degradation which occurs under space conditions. New types of materials dedicated for space applications, that have been developed in the last decade, are in majority not well tested for different space mission scenarios. Very little is known how material degradation may affect the stability and functionality of space vehicles and devices during long term space missions. Our aim is to predict how the solar wind and electromagnetic radiation degrade metallic structures. Therefore both experimental and theoretical studies of material degradation under space conditions have been performed. The studies are accomplished at German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Bremen (Germany) and University of Zielona G\'{o}ra (Poland). The paper presents the results of the theoretical part of those studies. It is proposed that metal bubbles filled with Hydrogen molecular gas, resulting from recombination of the metal free electrons and the solar protons, are formed on the irradiated surfaces. A thermodynamic model of bubble formation has been developed. We study the creation process of $\rm{H_2}$-bubbles as function of, inter alia, the metal temperature, proton dose and energy. Our model has been verified by irradiation experiments completed at the DLR facility in Bremen. Consequences of the bubble formation are changes of the physical and thermo-optical properties of such degraded metals. We show that a high surface density of bubbles (up to $10^8$ $\rm{cm^{-2}}$) with a typical bubble diameter of $\sim 0.4$$\rm{\mu}$m will cause a significant increase of the metallic surface roughness. This may have serious consequences to any space mission. Changes in the thermo-optical properties of metallic foils are especially important for the solar sail propulsion technology, ..

On Artificial Structural Unemployment

Above market clearing wages are shown to prevail as an outcome of a game in which employers possess and employees lack the ability to coordinate. It is established in a monopolistically competitive framework that it may be optimal for individual firms to coordinate and restrict entry of indirect competitors and thus increase profits by paying above market clearing wages as the higher wage bill need not outweigh the increase in profits due to entry restriction. Resulting unemployment is shown to be socially costly. The paper notes that a tax on revenue of the incumbent firms can be welfare improvingUnemployment, Coordination

Application of interventional ultrasound in emergency medicine conditions

ULTRASONOGRAPHY is a modern diagnostic tool both in intensive care and emergency medicine. Small, portable and simple ultrasound devices have been introduced due to technological advances. The image quality, size, and weight of portable ultrasound devices are improving. Prehospital point-of-care ultrasonog- raphy may have an impact on the decision making in prioritizing initial treatment. First aid at the scene of the accident and transporting the patient to the hospital is a key element, which in the case of appropriate diagnostics allows you to fight life-threatening injuries. The intention of using ultrasound protocols is to shorten and simplify the ultrasound examination allowing to eliminate or find complications of an injury as soon as possible. The protocols used include elements of ultrasonography and echocardiography of the lung tissue, abdominal cavity, pelvis, large vessels or the eyeball. The intention of the authors of the article was to present to the reader the basic ultrasound protocols applicable to patients in emergency situations.

On the possibility of artificial uncertainty in the leader-follower game

In this paper we study equilibrium dynamics in a simple duopoly game. We show that the beliefs about the structure of the game influence the actual dynamics. Furthermore, we argue that beliefs induced dynamics can be complex and can in equilibrium be consistent with the underlying beliefs. We illustrate that the beliefs can be consistent even if the underlying beliefs do not correspond to the objective truth.(original abstract)In this paper we study equilibrium dynamics in a simple duopoly game. We show that the beliefs about the structure of the game influence the actual dynamics. Furthermore, we argue that beliefs induced dynamics can be complex and can in equilibrium be consistent with the underlying beliefs. We illustrate that the beliefs can be consistent even if the underlying beliefs do not correspond to the objective truth.(original abstract

Sex, Age, Education, Marital Status, Number of Children, and Employment – the Impact of Extralegal Factors on Sentencing Disparities

Countries that have judicial discretion in their legal system usually struggle with sentencing disparities. This is no different in Poland. The current study examined whether extralegal factors such as age, sex, education, marital status, number of children, and having a job impact sentencing disparities. We examined court files from 13 district courts in Poland for two offenses: drug possession and drunk driving. Our findings show that sex, age, and number of children have no or little effect on outcomes, whilst marital status and employment status have small to medium effects on sentencing. The clearest result pattern to emerge from our analyses is that defendants with tertiary education are treated more leniently than those with primary or lower secondary education.Peer reviewe

Ultrasound assessment of the optic nerve sheath as an indirect method of diagnosis of increased intracranial pressure

Ultrasonography is a diagnostic technique that has been used clinically for 30 years. Due to the increased availability of ultrasound machines as well as the reduction of their size and making them more mobile, ultrasound has found its place in early diagnosis in emergency medicine settings. One of the important, however, an underestimated ultrasound examination is the measurement of the thickness of the optic nerve sheath. The optic nerve is the second cranial nerve, meaning the same sheath surrounds it as the brain. At the moment of intracranial pressure increase, cerebrospinal fluid flows into the subarachnoid space causing an increase in intracranial pressure and thus increasing the diameter of the optic nerve sheath. therefore, ONSD imaging is a quick non-invasive test aimed at detecting and monitoring changes in intracranial pres- sure. Optic nerve sheath ultrasound is a simple, safe and inexpensive bedside diagnostic test. Ophthalmic ultrasound usually uses the frequency between 5 and 10.5 MHz to evaluate the eye and the orbit.