The status of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the UK

Surveys in England and the Moray Firth were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (National Capability Grant no. SMRU1001). Surveys in the rest of Scotland were funded by Scottish Natural Heritage and surveys in Northern Ireland were funded by The Department of Trade and Industry, Marine Current Turbines, and the Northern Ireland Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs.1. Estimates of population size and trends are essential for effective conservation and management of wildlife populations. For harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), these data are required to fulfil statutory reporting obligations under national and international regulations. 2. Aerial survey counts of harbour seals hauled out during their annual moult were used to estimate population sizes and trends at UK, regional (seal management unit, SMU) and local (Special Area of Conservation, SAC) scales. 3. Results indicate that the current UK harbour seal population is similar to estimates from the late 1990s, but there were significant declines in some subpopulations and increases in others. 4. Fitted trends suggest that the UK harbour seal population can be divided into three geographically coherent groups: South‐east populations (South‐East and North‐East England SMUs) have shown continuous increases punctuated by phocine distemper virus epidemics in 1988 and 2002; north‐east populations (East Scotland, Moray Firth, North Coast and Orkney, and Shetland SMUs) have declined since the late 1990s; north‐west populations (West Scotland, Western Isles, and South‐West Scotland SMUs) have remained stable or increased. Similar geographical population substructure is evident in recent population genetics results. 5. Trends within SACs generally match SMU trends since 2002. Of the nine SACs designated for harbour seals, four declined (in East Scotland, Moray Firth, and North Coast and Orkney SMUs), four remained stable (in Shetland and West Scotland SMUs), and one increased (in South‐East England SMU). 6. Large changes in relative abundance have resulted from differences in regional trends. For example, in 1996–1997 the West Scotland and North Coast and Orkney SMUs each held ~27% of the Great Britain population but now hold ~50% and ~4% respectively; in 1980, the South‐East England SMU population was ~50% that of the Wadden Sea population, but by 2016 it was equivalent to <20% of the Wadden Sea count.PostprintPeer reviewe

Monitoring long-term changes in UK grey seal pup production

The work was supported by funding from the Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (grant no. SMRU1001).1.  The population size of many species, particularly those in the aquatic environment, cannot be censused directly. Counts, during the breeding season, of one component of the population (e.g. breeding females) are often used as an index to allow investigation of trends. In species, such as grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), for which births are not tightly synchronous, single counts of pups represent an unknown proportion of the total number of pups born (pup production), and thus of breeding females (i.e. each pup born represents a breeding female). 2.  Grey seals pup at large colonies around the coast of the UK. Information on their populations is required under national and international legislation. 3.  In the UK, pup production has been monitored at some colonies since 1956. Currently, large colonies (~90% of UK pup production) are monitored either using ground (~10%; annually) or aerial surveys (~80%; annually until 2010, and thereafter biennially). 4.  Here, the model used to estimate pup production at aerially surveyed colonies from 1987 to 2010 is described; structured pup counts from multiple surveys are combined with knowledge of life‐history parameters to model birth curves. 5.  The resulting trends in pup production up to 2010 (aerially surveyed colonies) and 2016 (ground surveyed colonies) are examined. 6.  In 2010, over 45,000 pups were estimated to be born in the UK. Pup production appeared to have reached an asymptote in the Inner Hebrides, Outer Hebrides and Orkney, whereas it is still increasing exponentially in the North Sea. Although density‐dependent processes acting at sea are likely to be responsible for these regional trends, we suggest that the substantial variation in trends within regions are likely caused by processes acting at the colony level. Some long‐established colonies, including Special Areas of Conservation, are exhibiting decreasing trends. 7.  Special Areas of Conservation often serve as de facto monitoring sites and are the focus of management efforts. The observed temporal and spatial variability in patterns of colony growth rates highlight the potential risks of using such sites to develop wider management policies.PostprintPeer reviewe

Sympatric seals, satellite tracking and protected areas : habitat-based distribution estimates for conservation and management

Analysis was funded by the UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS; OESEA-16-76/OESEA-17-78) with support from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; INSITE Phase II NE/T010614/1 EcoSTAR), EU INTERREG (MarPAMM), and the Scottish Government (MMSS/002/15). DJFR’s contribution was funded by NERC National Capability Funding (NE/R015007/1). WJG was supported by INSITE Phase I (MAPS). Telemetry tags and their deployment were funded in the UK by BEIS (and previous incarnations), NERC, Marine Scotland, Scottish Government, NatureScot, SMRU, SMRU Instrumentation Group, Marine Current Turbines, Ørsted, the Met Office, the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), the Crown Estate, Highlands & Islands Enterprise, Moray Firth Renewables Limited (MORL), Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Limited (BOWL), SITA Trust, BBC Wildlife Fund and the Hampshire & Isle of Wight Wildlife Trust. Tags and their deployment in Ireland were funded by Inland Fisheries Ireland, the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources, the Higher Education Authority of Ireland, the National Geographic Society, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, and the National Parks and Wildlife Service. UK aerial surveys conducted by SMRU were funded by NERC (NE/R015007/1), NatureScot, the Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Northern Ireland), Marine Current Turbines, Marine Scotland, Natural England, and Scottish Power. Aerial surveys in Ireland were funded by the Department for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media.Marine predator populations are crucial to the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Like many predator taxa, pinnipeds face an increasingly complex array of natural and anthropogenic threats. Understanding the relationship between at-sea processes and trends in abundance at land-based monitoring sites requires robust estimates of at-sea distribution, often on multi-region scales. Such an understanding is critical for effective conservation management, but estimates are often limited in spatial extent by spatial coverage of animal-borne tracking data. Grey (Halichoerus grypus) and harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) are sympatric predators in North Atlantic shelf seas. The United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland represents an important population centre for both species, and Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) are designated for their monitoring and protection. Here we use an extensive high-resolution GPS tracking dataset, unprecedented in both size (114 grey and 239 harbour seals) and spatial coverage, to model habitat preference and generate at-sea distribution estimates for the entire UK and Ireland populations of both species. We found regional differences in environmental drivers of distribution for both species which likely relate to regional variation in diet and population trends. Moreover, we provide SAC-specific estimates of at-sea distribution for use in marine spatial planning, demonstrating that hotspots of at-sea density in UK and Ireland-wide maps cannot always be apportioned to the nearest SAC. We show that for grey seals, colonial capital breeders, there is a mismatch between SACs (where impacts are likely to be detected) and areas where impacts are most likely to occur (at sea). We highlight an urgent need for further research to elucidate the links between at-sea distribution during the foraging season and population trends observed in SACs. More generally, we highlight that the potential for such a disconnect needs to be considered when designating and managing protected sites, particularly for species that aggregate to breed and exhibit partial migration (e.g. grey seals), or spatial variation in migration strategies. We demonstrate the use of strategic tracking efforts to predict distribution across multiple regions, but caution that such efforts should be mindful of the potential for differences in species-environment relationships despite similar accessible habitats.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Citizenship Education and Liberalism: A State of the Debate Analysis 1990–2010

What kind of citizenship education, if any, should schools in liberal societies promote? And what ends is such education supposed to serve? Over the last decades a respectable body of literature has emerged to address these and related issues. In this state of the debate analysis we examine a sample of journal articles dealing with these very issues spanning a twenty-year period with the aim to analyse debate patterns and developments in the research field. We first carry out a qualitative analysis where we design a two-dimensional theoretical framework in order to systematise the various liberal debate positions, and make us able to study their justifications, internal tensions and engagements with other positions. In the ensuing quantitative leg of the study we carry out a quantitative bibliometric analysis where we weigh the importance of specific scholars. We finally discuss possible merits and flaws in the research field, as evidenced in and by the analysis

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average)

Foraging energetics of Antartic fur seals in relation to changes in prey availability

This research examines the energy budget of breeding female Antarctic fur seals, both when food was plentiful and when it is scarce. The energy expenditure and change in body mass of lactating female Antartic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, foraging at sea was measured in two years using doubly labeled water at South Georgia Island. There was no difference between years in mass gain, water influx, mass—specific field metabolic rate (FMR), or absolute FMR. Mean at—sea FMR over both years was 9.52 ± 0.55 W/kg (n = 22), a value that is 6.7 times the predicted basal rate but only 1.9 times the FMR measured onshored. Comparable results have been reported for similar—sized northern fur seals. Krill, the nearly exclusive prey of breeding females, were scarce in 1984 at South Georgia. Fur seal foraging trips were twice as long in 1984 as in 1985 and total mass—specific energy expended by females during these trips was significantly greater. In addition, females were significantly lighter at parturition in 1984, and both pup mortality and the proportion of pups that died from starvation were double the 1985 values. Female condition at parturition and average foraging—trip duration (i.e., offspring—provisioning rate) appear to reflect prey availability. The similarity between years in mass increase suggests that females may have a limited ability to increase the relative time spent foraging because even in normal years only 5% of their time at sea is spent resting. This contrasts with northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus, which typically spend 17% of their time at sea inactive. Apparently these northern seals can increase their foraging effort by increasing the proportion of time spent foraging. This would account for the observed between—year difference in at—sea FMR of C. ursinus while foraging—trip duration remained fairly constant

British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance in 2008:An assessment based on aerial counts and satellite telemetry

Recent estimates of the total size of the British grey seal population have been based on fitting age-structured models to estimates of pup production. The estimates were sensitive to whether density-dependence was considered to act on fecundity or pup survival. This study provides an alternative estimate for abundance in 2008: 91 800 animals (95% confidence interval, CI, 78 400-109 900). The estimate is consistent with the results of existing models where population density influences pup survival. It suggests that reductions in fecundity are unlikely to have been the cause of the recent slowing of the rate of growth of the population. The estimate presented is based on aerial surveys of the entire Scottish coast and the east coast of England. The surveys were carried out in August of 20072009 and restricted to the 2 h each side of daylight low water. Data from 107 electronic tags deployed between 1995 and 2008 were used to estimate the proportion of animals hauled out during the surveys. Overall, the animals hauled out for 31% (95% CI 15-50%) of the survey windows. No significant effects on the proportion of animals hauled out were detected from year, location, age, sex, temperature, rainfall, or the timing of low tide.</p

An assessment of population size and distribution ofharbour seals in the Republic of Ireland during the moultseason in August 2003

The status of Ireland's harbour seal Phoca vitulina vitulina population is poorly understood. The most recent national population estimate dates back to the breeding season in 1978 and did not cover the entire coastline. Reliable up-to-date information on the abundance and distribution of harbour seals in Ireland is necessary to assess the conservation status of the species and for the effective identification, management and monitoring of special areas of conservation required for harbour seals under the EU Habitats Directive. To provide comprehensive current information on Ireland's harbour seal population, a geographically extensive survey was conducted along the coastline of the Republic of Ireland during the species' annual moult in August 2003. This complemented a similar survey of Northern Ireland, which was conducted in 2002. Using thermal imaging technology, haul-out groups of harbour seals and grey seals Halichoerus grypus were identified from the air, aerial-counts were obtained and compared with simultaneous ground-count data from selected sites. Harbour seal distribution recorded during the 2003 moult season was concentrated in the south-west, west and north-west of the country. This national survey yielded a minimum population estimate for the Republic of Ireland of 2905 harbour seals, delivering an effective baseline for current and future population research.</p