Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems

COVID-19 Scenarios: an interactive tool to explore the spread and associated morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused large outbreaks around the world and every heavily affected community has experienced a substantial strain on the health care system and a high death toll. Communities therefore have to monitor the incidence of COVID-19 carefully and attempt to project the demand for health care. To enable such projections, we have developed an interactive web application that simulates an age-structured SEIR model with separate compartments for severely and critically ill patients. The tool allows the users to modify most parameters of the model, including age specific assumptions on severity. Infection control and mitigation measures that reduce transmission can be specified, as well as age-group specific isolation. The simulation of the model runs entirely on the client side in the browser; all parameter settings and results of the simulation can be exported for further downstream analysis. The tool is available at covid19-scenarios.org and the source code at github.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios

Evolutionary dynamics in the virosphere: from HIV-1 to bacteriophage evolution

Evolution is a fundamental force shaping all life on Earth. Viruses, the most numerous and diverse biological entities on the planet, excel in evolution and thrive in many hosts and environments. The study of their evolutionary dynamics, which are essential to their success, has significant implications for public health. Historical and recent pandemics have shown the considerable impact that viruses can have on society, and understanding their evolution is therefore essential to mitigate their effects, help control disease spread, design better vaccines and antiviral drugs, and create new innovative treatments. Studies of HIV-1 biology and evolution enabled the creation of life-saving treatments for infected patients. Despite this considerable achievement, we lack a satisfactory explanation of how HIV-1's within-host evolution generates its global diversity. In the first part of this thesis, we sought to explain this discrepancy by investigating the evolutionary dynamics at play on both scales. We showed that between-host evolution can mostly be explained from within-host dynamics if one accounts for the changing immune pressure that the virus faces from one host to the next. The evolution of the virus, constrained by the immune response of the patient, leads to the emergence of many escape mutations that are relevant only in that specific host. When infecting a new host, the different immune pressure causes the reversion of previously acquired mutations to their original state. On longer time scales, we thus observe a slower evolution driven by adaptation to changing environments. In the second part of this thesis, we study the evolution of another type of virus: the bacteriophages. These viruses infect bacteria and are much more numerous and diverse than human viruses. Bacteriophages hold great promise for a wide range of research fields such as ecology, healthcare and molecular biology. Their viral nature and diversity makes them great candidates to investigate viral evolutionary dynamics. However, phage research is currently limited to a handful of well-characterized bacteriophage models, or to broad metagenomics studies where the phages are rarely isolated and poorly characterized. The former limits the scope of the findings, while the latter cannot provide the detailed characterization that would require experimental intervention. This depth vs. breadth dichotomy hinders our ability to comprehensively study phage evolution, and we sought to bridge this gap in two ways. First by creating a collection of phages, the BASEL phage collection, that is representative of the natural diversity of E.coli phages but where individual phages are also well-characterized. This gives a detailed snapshot of the results of natural phage evolution, which is informative of the evolutionary trade-offs that these phages face. Our second approach to address the dichotomy is to enable phage evolution experiments at scale. To achieve this, we created a high-throughput framework to perform bacteriophage evolution rapidly, reliably and at scale. The central piece of this framework is the continuous culture machine we crafted to perform the bacteriophage evolution experiment: the Aionostat. We present the machine and the results of two experiments to showcase its abilities. In these experiments, we evolved phages to increase their infectivity on a challenging bacterial strain, demonstrating that the Aionostat can drive the evolution of bacteriophages both vertically and through horizontal transfers. Both approaches complement each other and open new avenues for bacteriophage research

Systematic exploration of Escherichia coli phage-host interactions with the BASEL phage collection

Bacteriophages, the viruses infecting bacteria, hold great potential for the treatment of multidrug-resistant bacterial infections and other applications due to their unparalleled diversity and recent breakthroughs in their genetic engineering. However, fundamental knowledge of molecular mechanisms underlying phage-host interactions is mostly confined to a few traditional model systems and did not keep pace with the recent massive expansion of the field. The true potential of molecular biology encoded by these viruses has therefore remained largely untapped, and phages for therapy or other applications are often still selected empirically. We therefore sought to promote a systematic exploration of phage-host interactions by composing a well-assorted library of 66 newly isolated phages infecting the model organism Escherichia coli that we share with the community as the BASEL collection (BActeriophage SElection for your Laboratory). This collection is largely representative of natural E. coli phage diversity and was intensively characterized phenotypically and genomically alongside ten well-studied traditional model phages. We experimentally determined essential host receptors of all phages, quantified their sensitivity to eleven defense systems across different layers of bacterial immunity, and matched these results to the phages' host range across a panel of pathogenic enterobacterial strains. Our results reveal clear patterns in the distribution of phage phenotypes and genomic features that highlight systematic differences in the potency of different immunity systems and point towards the molecular basis of receptor specificity in several phage groups. Strong trade-offs were detected between fitness traits like broad host recognition and resistance to bacterial immunity that might drive the divergent adaptation of different phage groups to specific niches. We envision that the BASEL collection will inspire future work exploring the biology of bacteriophages and their hosts by facilitating the discovery of underlying molecular mechanisms as the basis for an effective translation into biotechnology or therapeutic applications

Systematic exploration of Escherichia coli phage-host interactions with the BASEL phage collection

Bacteriophages, the viruses infecting bacteria, hold great potential for the treatment of multidrug-resistant bacterial infections and other applications due to their unparalleled diversity and recent breakthroughs in their genetic engineering. However, fundamental knowledge of the molecular mechanisms underlying phage-host interactions is mostly confined to a few traditional model systems and did not keep pace with the recent massive expansion of the field. The true potential of molecular biology encoded by these viruses has therefore remained largely untapped, and phages for therapy or other applications are often still selected empirically. We therefore sought to promote a systematic exploration of phage-host interactions by composing a well-assorted library of 68 newly isolated phages infecting the model organism Escherichia coli that we share with the community as the BASEL (BActeriophage SElection for your Laboratory) collection. This collection is largely representative of natural E. coli phage diversity and was intensively characterized phenotypically and genomically alongside 10 well-studied traditional model phages. We experimentally determined essential host receptors of all phages, quantified their sensitivity to 11 defense systems across different layers of bacterial immunity, and matched these results to the phages' host range across a panel of pathogenic enterobacterial strains. Clear patterns in the distribution of phage phenotypes and genomic features highlighted systematic differences in the potency of different immunity systems and suggested the molecular basis of receptor specificity in several phage groups. Our results also indicate strong trade-offs between fitness traits like broad host recognition and resistance to bacterial immunity that might drive the divergent adaptation of different phage groups to specific ecological niches. We envision that the BASEL collection will inspire future work exploring the biology of bacteriophages and their hosts by facilitating the discovery of underlying molecular mechanisms as the basis for an effective translation into biotechnology or therapeutic applications

Cell-Cell Fusion Induced by Measles Virus Amplifies the Type I Interferon Response▿ †

Measles virus (MeV) infection is characterized by the formation of multinuclear giant cells (MGC). We report that beta interferon (IFN-β) production is amplified in vitro by the formation of virus-induced MGC derived from human epithelial cells or mature conventional dendritic cells. Both fusion and IFN-β response amplification were inhibited in a dose-dependent way by a fusion-inhibitory peptide after MeV infection of epithelial cells. This effect was observed at both low and high multiplicities of infection. While in the absence of virus replication, the cell-cell fusion mediated by MeV H/F glycoproteins did not activate any IFN-α/β production, an amplified IFN-β response was observed when H/F-induced MGC were infected with a nonfusogenic recombinant chimerical virus. Time lapse microscopy studies revealed that MeV-infected MGC from epithelial cells have a highly dynamic behavior and an unexpected long life span. Following cell-cell fusion, both of the RIG-I and IFN-β gene deficiencies were trans complemented to induce IFN-β production. Production of IFN-β and IFN-α was also observed in MeV-infected immature dendritic cells (iDC) and mature dendritic cells (mDC). In contrast to iDC, MeV infection of mDC induced MGC, which produced enhanced amounts of IFN-α/β. The amplification of IFN-β production was associated with a sustained nuclear localization of IFN regulatory factor 3 (IRF-3) in MeV-induced MGC derived from both epithelial cells and mDC, while the IRF-7 up-regulation was poorly sensitive to the fusion process. Therefore, MeV-induced cell-cell fusion amplifies IFN-α/β production in infected cells, and this indicates that MGC contribute to the antiviral immune response

Cellular receptors, differentiation and endocytosis requirements are key factors for type I IFN response by human epithelial, conventional and plasmacytoid dendritic infected cells by measles virus

While the antiviral response during measles virus (MeV) infection is documented, the contribution of the hosting cell type to the type I interferon (IFN-α/β) response is still not clearly established. Here, we report that a signature heterogeneity of the IFN-α/β response according to the cell type. The MeV tropism dictated by the expression of appropriate cellular receptor appeared to be crucial for epithelial cells. For conventional DCs (cDCs), the maturation state played a prominent role. In response to both wild type MeV isolates and laboratory/vaccine strains, immature cDCs produced higher levels of IFN-α than mature cDCs, despite the reduced expression levels of both CD46 and CD150 receptors by the former ones. While in epithelial cells and cDCs the MeV transcription was required to activate the IFN-α/β response, plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs) rapidly produced large amounts of IFN-α mostly independently of the viral infection cycle. This argues for a significant contribution of pDCs in response to MeV infection and/or vaccination

Systematic exploration of Escherichia coli phage-host interactions with the BASEL phage collection

Bacteriophages, the viruses infecting bacteria, hold great potential for the treatment of multidrug-resistant bacterial infections and other applications due to their unparalleled diversity and recent breakthroughs in their genetic engineering. However, fundamental knowledge of the molecular mechanisms underlying phage-host interactions is mostly confined to a few traditional model systems and did not keep pace with the recent massive expansion of the field. The true potential of molecular biology encoded by these viruses has therefore remained largely untapped, and phages for therapy or other applications are often still selected empirically. We therefore sought to promote a systematic exploration of phage-host interactions by composing a well-assorted library of 68 newly isolated phages infecting the model organism Escherichia coli that we share with the community as the BASEL (BActeriophage SElection for your Laboratory) collection. This collection is largely representative of natural E. coli phage diversity and was intensively characterized phenotypically and genomically alongside 10 well-studied traditional model phages. We experimentally determined essential host receptors of all phages, quantified their sensitivity to 11 defense systems across different layers of bacterial immunity, and matched these results to the phages' host range across a panel of pathogenic enterobacterial strains. Clear patterns in the distribution of phage phenotypes and genomic features highlighted systematic differences in the potency of different immunity systems and suggested the molecular basis of receptor specificity in several phage groups. Our results also indicate strong trade-offs between fitness traits like broad host recognition and resistance to bacterial immunity that might drive the divergent adaptation of different phage groups to specific ecological niches. We envision that the BASEL collection will inspire future work exploring the biology of bacteriophages and their hosts by facilitating the discovery of underlying molecular mechanisms as the basis for an effective translation into biotechnology or therapeutic applications