Analysis of benefits and harms as a factor in citizen support to Croatian accession to the European Union

This paper deals with the analysis of the utilitarian model of the explanation of popular support for Croatian entry into the European Union. The utilitarian model for explicating support or lack of support for accession to the EU has been analysed through subjective principled expectations of benefits and harms of entry into the Union at a personal and at a national level, and through concrete expectations at the level of twenty-two aspects of social and economic life. The research results show that on the basis of principled expectations it is possible precisely to predict support for entry into the EU, but that the principled expectations are not to any very great extent founded on concrete expectations in the observed aspects of social and economic life, and that they are to a certain degree linked with political viewpoints. On the other hand, concrete expectations are relatively weakly correlated with support for Croatian entry into the EU. Such a result suggests the conclusion that on the basis of a utilitarian explanation of support it is possible only relatively poorly to predict viewpoints concerning joining the EU, and that principled expectations of benefits and harms are in good part an expression of general impressions about the EU, trust in the political elite and political views of Croatian citizens, and to a lesser extent realistic rational calculations of harms and benefits. The paper is based on empirical survey of the views and spectations performed on a probabilistic national sample of a thousand citizens older than 15

Ablehnendes Verhalten in telefonischen Meinungsumfragen und ihre Gültigkeit für die Wahlforschung

U radu se analiziraju podaci o odbijanjima anketa u tri telefonska predizborna istra`ivanja koja su provedena 2003. godine. Osim podataka o u~estalosti odbijanja i analizi odbijanja prema regiji i veli~ini naselja, u radu se analiziraju i razlike u demografskim karakteristikama ispitanika koji ~eš}e odbijaju sudjelovanje u istra`ivanjima. Usporedbom demografskih karakteristika i strana~kih preferencija ispitanika koji su odmah pri prvom kontaktu pristali na sudjelovanje u istra`ivanju i onih koji su najprije odbili sudjelovati pa su u drugom kontaktu pristali na suradnju utvr|uje se utjecaj odbijanja na prediktivnu valjanost telefonskih predizbornih istra`ivanja. Utvr|eno je da su ispitanici koji su najprije odbili sudjelovati u istra`ivanju pa se potom predomislili ~eš}e simpatizeri stranaka tadašnje oporbe nego ispitanici koji su pristali na suradnju pri prvom kontaktu.The analysis of nonresponse in three pre-election telephone researches that were carried out during 2003 is presented in this study. Apart from the data about frequency of refusals and the analysis of refusals according to region and settlement size, the analysis of demographic characteristics of participants who are more likely to reject participation in research is presented. Comparison of demographic characteristics and party preferences among those participants who, in the first contact immediately agreed to participate in the research and those participants who, in the first contact rejected participating but in the second contact agreed to participate shows the influence of refusals on the predictive validity of pre-election telephone surveys. It has been established that those participants who first rejected participation in the research but then reconsidered their decision to participate are more likely to support the then opposition parties than those participants who in the first contact agreed to participate in the research.Im vorliegenden Artikel werden die Ergebnisse dreier Telefonumfragen analysiert, die im Vorfeld der kroatischen Parlamentswahlen 2003 durchgeführt wurden und in denen es viele der Befragten ablehnten teilzunehmen. Außer Angaben über die Zahl der Absagen und die Herkunft der ablehnenden Umfrageteilnehmer (Analyse gemäß Region und Größenordnung des Wohnortes) bringt der Artikel auch eine Analyse über die demografischen Merkmale der ablehnenden Umfrageteilnehmer. Der Vergleich zwischen den demografischen Merkmalen und Parteipräferenzen von Umfrageteilnehmern, die sofort zur Teilnahme bereit waren, und den Charakteristiken von Teilnehmern, die erst im wiederholten Kontakt bereit waren, an der Umfrage teilzunehmen, dient als Ausgangspunkt zu Schlüssen darüber, inwiefern die Wahlforschung per Telefonumfragen durch das ablehnende Verhalten von Umfrageteilnehmern beeinflusst wird. Es wurde festgestellt, dass befragte Personen, die erst im zweiten Anlauf teilnahmewillig waren, häufiger die damaligen Oppositionsparteien sympathisierten als Umfrageteilnehmer, die sofort Teilnahmebereitschaft zeigten

SOCIAL CLEAVAGES AND PARTY PREFERENCES IN ELECTIONS FOR CROATIAN PARLIAMENT IN 2003

Primjenjujući analitički model što ga je izveo Deegan-Krause, rad se bavi analizom društvenih rascjepa koji su u pozadini stranačkih preferencija na izborima za Hrvatski sabor 2003. godine. Rezultati empirijskoga istraživanja, koje je provedeno na uzorku od 2.000 punoljetnih građana Hrvatske metodom telefonskoga intervjua dva dana prije izbora, upućuju na to da se u skladu s ovim modelom može prepoznati razmjerno plitki društveni rascjep koji stoji u pozadini biračkoga ponašanja na analiziranim izborima. Naime rezultati pokazuju da od trinaest analiziranih stavova samo tri značajno objašnjavaju dio varijance stranačkih preferencija, među kojima je najznačajniji stav o suradnji s Međunarodnim sudom za ratne zločine na području bivše Jugoslavije u Haagu te odnos prema pobačaju. Rezultati također pokazuju postojanje bitne veze između nekih sociodemografskih obilježja, stavova o navedenim političkim pitanjima te stranačkih preferencija, što u skladu s korištenim teorijskim modelom stvara preduvjete da bi se moglo govoriti o društvenom rascjepu.By applying the analytical model derived by Deegan-Krause, the paper analyzes social cleavages underpinning the party preferences in the elections for the Croatian Parliament in 2003. The results of the research carried out on a sample of 2,000 adult Croatian citizens by phone interviews two days before the elections indicate that this model has identified relatively shallow social cleavages underlying the voting behaviour in the analyzed elections. Namely, out of thirteen analyzed attitudes only three significantly explain a part of the variance in party preferences, the most significant being the attitude concerning the cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in the Hague and the attitude concerning abortion. The results also show there is a significant link among certain socio-demographic characteristics, the attitudes about the political issues in question and the party preferences. This means that there might be a social cleavage at work here

Catholic religious and spiritual identity of Mediterranean adolescents: comparing four regions in Post-Communist and Western Europe

We investigated religious identity and spiritual profile of adolescents in selected communities of Bosnia, Croatia, Italy and Spain using a standardized questionnaire on three major areas of interest: inner content of religiosity, attitude towards Catholic doctrine and regulations, and the impact of religiosity on daily life. Controlling sample differences by age, socioeconomic status and gender, we tested the significance of differences in attitudes of adolescents in transitional post- Communist societies (rural and small-town Croatia and Bosnia) and western European postmodern culture (Sicily in Italy and Mallorca and Madrid in Spain) by analysis of variance (ANOVA). We tested 1204 adolescents from Franciscan high schools (Sicily and Spain) and public high schools (Bosnia and Croatia). Overall, Spanish youngsters appeared least religious and most socially permissive as they differed significantly from other groups in all three major areas of interest. Bosnian and Croatian adolescents were similar to each other and overall more religiously imbued. Sicilians were most often found between Spaniards on one side and Croatians on the other. The study shows a gradient of increasing religiosity from the West to the East, from Spain to Bosnia and establishes baseline values for the future longitudinal studies of the communities in Bosnia and Croatia

Determinants and reasons for coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine hesitancy in Croatia

Aim To assess the determinants and reasons for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine hesitancy in Croatia. Methods The data were collected through a sociological survey by using a mixed-mode approach (computer-assisted web interviewing and computer-assisted telephone interview) on a national sample of 765 adults aged 18 or above. Bivariate (χ2 test) and multivariate (binary logistic regression) statistical methods were used. Results The rate of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was relatively high (35%), with unequal distribution across demographic groups. Binary logistic regression with demographic characteristics as predictors showed that women, younger age groups (especially 25-34-year-olds), persons residing in households with children, inhabitants of smaller settlements, and persons with lower levels of education had higher odds of vaccine hesitancy. Trust in the five main actors responding to the COVID-19 pandemic (the National Civil Protection Headquarters, Government, health care system, scientists-researchers, and media) was also a significant predictor of vaccine hesitancy. Risk perception was an even stronger predictor: persons who perceived SARSCoV-2 infection as a small risk were more than ten times likelier to be vaccine hesitant than those who perceived it as a great risk. Conclusion Social groups that are more prone to vaccine hesitancy need to be approached through different channels and messages by taking into account their trust in institutions and risk perception

The Presence of National-Authoritarian Political Orientations in Part of the Zagreb Student Population

Rad je prezentacija empirijskoga istraživanja prisutnosti nacionalno-autoritarnih političkih orijentacija na uzorku studenata Sveučilišta u Zagrebu. Istraživanje je provedeno na uzorku od 642 studenta prve i druge godine šest fakulteta. Za mjerenje nacionalno-autoritarne političke orijentacije rabljena je modificirana Noack i sur. (1995.) Skala koja se sastojala od pet tvrdnja. Faktorska je analiza pokazala da tvrdnje mjere isti predmet mjerenja, jer je njihovom faktorizacijom ekstrahirana samo jedna značajna komponenta s pouzdanošću mjerenom Cronbachovim alpha koeficijentom od 0.63. Polazna hipoteza kojom se rad bavi jest teza da kasniji adolescenti na kojima je istraživanje provedeno ne pokazuju veće sklonosti ka nacionalno-autoritarnim političkim orijentacijama u odnosu na vršnjake u razvijenim zemljama. Uz ovu, testirane su i hipoteze o utjecaju socijalizacijskih elemenata kao što su: obiteljska atmosfera, naobrazba roditelja, mjesto rođenja ispitanika, uloga vjere u životu te fakultetsko usmjerenje sklonosti nacionalno-autoritarnom političkom konceptu. Nalazi istraživanja potvrđuju polaznu hipotezu istraživanja. Rezultati također pokazuju da obiteljska atmosfera i naobrazba roditelja nisu prediktivni za sklonost ispitanika mjerenom političkom konceptu. Mjesto rođenja adolescenata, stupanj njihove religioznosti i fakultetsko usmjerenje pokazuju eksplikativnu vrijednost u analizi sklonosti ovoj političkoj orijentaciji.The paper gives insight into the empirical research of the presence of national-authoritarian political orientations on a sample of Zagreb University students. The research was carried out on a sample of 642 first and second year students of six faculties. For measuring the national- -authoritarian political orientation the modified Noack et al. (1995) Scale comprising five statements was used. Factor analysis has shown that statements measure the same object of measurement, because their factorisation extracted only one significant component with the Cronbach alpha reliability coefficient of .63. The initial hypothesis the paper deals with is the thesis that older adolescents do not show greater proneness towards national-authoritarian political orientations when compared to their peers in developed countries. In addition to this one, also tested were the hypotheses concerning the influence of socialisational elements such as: family atmosphere, parents\u27 education, place of examinee\u27s birth, the role of religion in life, as well as faculty orientation on proneness to the national- -authoritarian political concept. Research results confirm the initial research hypothesis. The findings also indicate that family atmosphere and parents\u27 education are not predictive for the examinee\u27s proneness to the measured political concept. The adolescent\u27s place of birth, degree of religiosity and faculty orientation indicate an explicative value in the analysis of proneness to this political orientation.Der vorliegende Artikel präsentiert Verlauf und Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung über national-autoritäre politische Orientierungen innerhalb einer Gruppe von Studenten der Universität Zagreb. An der Untersuchung nahmen 642 Studenten von sechs Fakultäten (1. und 2. Studienjahr) teil. Zur Ermittlung national-autoritärer politischer Orientierungen wandte man eine modifizierte Form der von Noack und Mitarbeitern (1995) entworfenen Skala an, in der zu fünf Thesen Stellung genommen werden musste. Die Faktorenanalyse ergab, dass die Thesen alle denselben Ermittlungsgegenstand hatten, denn durch ihre Faktorisierung wurde lediglich eine wesentliche Komponente extrahiert, und zwar mit einer Verlässlichkeit von 0,63 gemäß dem α-Koeffizient nach Crombach. Die Ausgangshypothese dieses Artikels lautet, dass im Vergleich zu Gleichaltrigen in den Industriestaaten die hier befragten Spätadoleszenten keinerlei ausgeprägtere Neigungen zu national-autoritären politischen Orientierungen zeigen. Geprüft wurden weitere Hypothesen, die den Einfluss bestimmter Sozialisierungselemente hinterfragen; dazu gehören: Atmosphäre in der Familie, Bildungsgrad der Eltern, Geburtsort des Probanden, Stellenwert von Religion, gewählte Studienrichtung und Sympathie für ein national-autoritäres politisches Konzept. Die Forschungsergebnisse bestätigen die Ausgangshypothese. Sie zeigen ferner, dass die Atmosphäre in der Familie und der Bildungsgrad der Eltern keine Prädiktoren für eine Neigung zu genanntem politischem Konzept sind. Der Geburtsort, der Grad von Religiosität und die Studienrichtung erweisen sich von explikativem Wert.Der vorliegende Artikel präsentiert Verlauf und Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung über national-autoritäre politische Orientierungen innerhalb einer Gruppe von Studenten der Universität Zagreb. An der Untersuchung nahmen 642 Studenten von sechs Fakultäten (1. und 2. Studienjahr) teil. Zur Ermittlung national-autoritärer politischer Orientierungen wandte man eine modifizierte Form der von Noack und Mitarbeitern (1995) entworfenen Skala an, in der zu fünf Thesen Stellung genommen werden musste. Die Faktorenanalyse ergab, dass die Thesen alle denselben Ermittlungsgegenstand hatten, denn durch ihre Faktorisierung wurde lediglich eine wesentliche Komponente extrahiert, und zwar mit einer Verlässlichkeit von 0,63 gemäß dem α-Koeffizient nach Crombach. Die Ausgangshypothese dieses Artikels lautet, dass im Vergleich zu Gleichaltrigen in den Industriestaaten die hier befragten Spätadoleszenten keinerlei ausgeprägtere Neigungen zu national-autoritären politischen Orientierungen zeigen. Geprüft wurden weitere Hypothesen, die den Einfluss bestimmter Sozialisierungselemente hinterfragen; dazu gehören: Atmosphäre in der Familie, Bildungsgrad der Eltern, Geburtsort des Probanden, Stellenwert von Religion, gewählte Studienrichtung und Sympathie für ein national-autoritäres politisches Konzept. Die Forschungsergebnisse bestätigen die Ausgangshypothese. Sie zeigen ferner, dass die Atmosphäre in der Familie und der Bildungsgrad der Eltern keine Prädiktoren für eine Neigung zu genanntem politischem Konzept sind. Der Geburtsort, der Grad von Religiosität und die Studienrichtung erweisen sich von explikativem Wert

“Put a Mask and Keep a Distance” – A Study of Determinants of Protective Behavior against COVID-19 Disease in the Republic of Croatia

U ovome se radu analiziraju neke determinante protektivnog ponašanja, posebice povjerenje u institucije, percepcija rizika od COVID-a 19 i sociodemografska obilježja. Provedeno je telefonsko istraživanje na dvoetapno stratificiranom uzorku punoljetnih stanovnika RH u razdoblju od kraja kolovoza do početka listopada 2020. godine (N=1212). Nalazi ukazuju na to da su statistički značajne determinante pridržavanja protektivnih mjera: dob (stariji), spol ispitanika (žene), prisustvo djece predškolske dobi u kućanstvu (pozitivna povezanost), procjena opasnosti od zaraze (veća percipirana opasnost rezultira većim pridržavanjem mjera), procjena vlastitog zdravstvenog stanja (oni lošijeg zdravlja više se pridržavaju mjera), iskustvo obolijevanja od bolesti COVID-19 (oni s neposrednijim iskustvom više se pridržavaju mjera) te povjerenje u Nacionalni stožer civilne zaštite i povjerenje u znanstvenike (veće povjerenje rezultira većim pridržavanjem mjera). Nešto više od polovine ispitanika procjenjuje da je zaraza virusom SARS-CoV-2 iznimno opasna, u odnosu na 17 posto ispitanika koji drže da je opasnost mala ili nikakva. Većina ispitanika izrazila je povjerenje u svih pet institucija i sustava za koje je mjereno povjerenje – najveće je povjerenje u znanstvenike, a najmanje u medije.In this paper we analyse determinants of protective behaviour, trust in institutions, risk perception of COVID-19 and sociodemographic characteristics. The study was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviewing from August till October 2020 among a nationally representative sample of 1,212 respondents aged 18 and older in Croatia. The findings suggest that statistically significant determinants of protective behaviour are: age (the elderly), gender (women), presence of preschool children in the household (positive association), assessment of the risk of infection (greater perceived danger results in greater adherence), assessment of their own health (those with poorer health adhere more), experience of the COVID-19 disease (those with more immediate experience adhere more) and trust in the National Civil Protection Headquarters and scientists (greater trust results in greater adherence to measures). Just over half of the respondents estimate that SARS-CoV-2 infection is extremely dangerous compared to 17% of respondents who believe that the danger is small or none. Most respondents expressed trust in all five institutions and systems for which trust was measured - the greatest trust is in scientists, and lowest in the media

Political Participation and Party Preferences Among War Veterans in Croatia

U radu se analizira posebnost veteranske populacije u Hrvatskoj po pitanju tri važna politička fenomena: političke participacije, političkih preferencija i ideološke samo-identifikacije. Rezultati analize podataka prikupljenih anketnim istraživanjem 2015. godine pokazuju da se hrvatski ratni veterani Domovinskog rata ne razlikuju od ostatka biračkog tijela u stopi političke participacije mjerene izlaznošću na parlamentarne izbore 2011. i 2015. godine te predsjedničke izbore 2015. godine. S druge strane, ratni veterani se razlikuju od ostatka biračkog tijela po političkim preferencijama i ideološkoj samoidentifikaciji, uz kontrolu drugih obilježja, i to na način da u većoj mjeri biraju stranke desnice i desnog centra te da u većoj mjeri svoju političku orijentaciju određuju kao desnu. U radu se navode i raspravljaju tumačenja te posebnosti ratnih veterana kroz tri različita pristupa koji naglašavaju selekcijsku pristranost odnosno socijalizacijske te mobilizacijske učinke.The paper examines distinctiveness of war veterans compared to general population in Croatia according to three important political phenomena: political participation, party preferences and ideological self-identification. Analysis of sociological survey conducted in 2015 shows that there is no difference in the level of political participation measured by voting turnout in 2011 and 2015 parliamentary and 2015 presidential level between Croatian war veterans and the rest of the public. On the other side, war veterans differ from the rest of the electorate, with other variables held constant, in terms of party preferences and ideological self-identification. Compared to non-veterans, war veterans are more inclined to vote for the right and center-right parties and position themselves to the right side of the political spectrum. The paper discusses these differences, as well as its roots and consequences