An adaptive household sampling method for rural African communities

Investigators working in rural communities and small towns in Africa face many obstacles to obtaining a random and representative sample of households for their research. The civic infrastructure used as the building blocks of survey sampling in developed countries are mostly absent in rural Africa. The purpose of the study described in this paper was to pilot an innovative and cost-effective approach to household sampling designed to generate probability samples representative of the socio-economic diversity of the small town of Berekuso, in the Eastern Region of Ghana, without relying on existing census data, household registers, or a regular layout of roads and dwellings. Utilizing Google Earth images and a Graphical Information System (GIS) map of Berekuso, sampling units were defined as 15-degree wedge-shaped sectors radiating from the center of the original township. All households within randomly selected sectors were surveyed, and based on a household classification scheme, each household type was identified. Additional sectors were randomly selected and surveyed in sequence until no new household types were identified – a notion recognized by laboratory scientists as an ‘end point’. The adaptive sampling strategy was cost and time effective: freely available versions of Google Earth and QGIS software were employed along with inexpensive handheld Global Positioning System (GPS) devices; a total of 57 households were surveyed by teams of two enumerators over three consecutive Sundays. The survey method yielded a probability sample that is representative of the socioeconomic diversity of Berekuso, and produced generalizable results for median household size, median age of residents, sources of potable water and toilet types, among others. For example, based on the results of the survey, a 95% confidence interval estimate of the proportion of residents of Berekuso under the age of 20 years is between 0.49 and 0.58. These figures are consistent with results of Ghana’s 2010 census which pegged the proportion of the population of the Eastern Region under the age of the 20 years at 0.49. The authors believe that the methodology described in this paper may be applicable to household research in many rural African villages and small towns where little civic infrastructure exists to create more traditional sampling frames.Key words: Google Earth, area sampling, household survey, impact evaluation, wealth rankin

Reusable Agena study. Volume 2: Technical

The application of the existing Agena vehicle as a reusable upper stage for the space shuttle is discussed. The primary objective of the study is to define those changes to the Agena required for it to function in the reusable mode in the 100 percent capture of the NASA-DOD mission model. This 100 percent capture is achieved without use of kick motors or stages by simply increasing the Agena propellant load by using optional strap-on-tanks. The required shuttle support equipment, launch and flight operations techniques, development program, and cost package are also defined

Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion

The Contributions of Chemistry and Transport to Low Arctic Ozone in March 2011 Derived from Aura MLS Observations

Stratospheric and total columns of Arctic O3 (63-90 N) in late March 2011 averaged 320 and 349 DU, respectively. These values are 74 DU lower than averages for the previous 6 years. We use Aura MLS O3 observations to quantify the roles of chemistry and transport and find there are two major reasons for low O3 in March 2011: heterogeneous chemical loss and a late final warming that delayed the resupply of O3 until April. Daily vortex-averaged partial columns in the lowermost stratosphere (p greater than 133 hPa) and middle stratosphere (p less than 29 hPa) are unaffected by local heterogeneous chemistry and show a near total lack of transport into the vortex between late January and late March, contributing to the observed low column. The lower stratospheric (LS) column (133-29 hPa) is affected by both heterogeneous chemistry and transport. Low interannual variability of Aura MLS 0 3 columns and temperature inside the Arctic vortex (2004-2011) shows that the transport contribution to vortex O3 in fall and early winter is nearly the same each year. The descent of MLS N2O vortex profiles in 2011 provides an estimate of O3 transported into the LS column during late winter. By quantifying the role of transport we determine that PSC-driven chemical loss causes 80 (plus or minus 10) DU of vortex-averaged O3 loss by late March 2011. Without heterogeneous chemical loss, March 2011 vortex O3 would have been ~40 DU lower than normal due to the late final warming and resupply of O3 which did not occur until April

The Antarctic Ozone Hole: An Update

The stratospheric ozone hole, an annual occurrence during austral spring, is caused by heterogeneous conversion of hydrogen chloride and chlorine nitrate to chlorine radicals. These reactions take place of polar stratospheric cloud particles in the cold, isolate Antarctic winter vortex. The chlorine radicals participate in chemical reactions that rapidly deplete ozone when sunlight returns at the end of polar night. International agreements eliminated production of the culprit anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons in the late 1990s, but due to their long stratospheric lifetime (50-100 years), the ozone hole will continue its annual appearance for years to come

A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100

The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty

Reducing Uncertainty in Chemistry Climate Model Predictions of Stratospheric Ozone

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to predict the future evolution of stratospheric ozone as ozone-depleting substances decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM predictions exhibit many common features, but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone-return-to-1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to chlorine change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower atmosphere ozone to chlorine change deltaO3/deltaCly is a near linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine (Cly) into its reservoirs; both Cly and its partitioning are controlled by lower atmospheric transport. CCMs with realistic transport agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035 differences in response to chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM results as the anthropogenic contribution to Cly becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change deltaO3/deltaT due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with their own temperature dependence. In the lower atmosphere, tropical ozone decreases caused by a predicted speed-up in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by middle and high latitude increases, contributing most to the spread in late 21st century predictions