A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History

Neither economics nor political science can explain the process of modern social development. The fact that developed societies always have developed economies and developed polities suggests that the connection between economics and politics must be a fundamental part of the development process. This paper develops an integrated theory of economics and politics. We show how, beginning 10,000 years ago, limited access social orders developed that were able to control violence, provide order, and allow greater production through specialization and exchange. Limited access orders provide order by using the political system to limit economic entry to create rents, and then using the rents to stabilize the political system and limit violence. We call this type of political economy arrangement a natural state. It appears to be the natural way that human societies are organized, even in most of the contemporary world. In contrast, a handful of developed societies have developed open access social orders. In these societies, open access and entry into economic and political organizations sustains economic and political competition. Social order is sustained by competition rather than rent-creation. The key to understanding modern social development is understanding the transition from limited to open access social orders, which only a handful of countries have managed since WWII.

A guide for performing system safety analysis

A general guide is presented for performing system safety analyses of hardware, software, operations and human elements of an aerospace program. The guide describes a progression of activities that can be effectively applied to identify hazards to personnel and equipment during all periods of system development. The general process of performing safety analyses is described; setting forth in a logical order the information and data requirements, the analytical steps, and the results. These analyses are the technical basis of a system safety program. Although the guidance established by this document cannot replace human experience and judgement, it does provide a methodical approach to the identification of hazards and evaluation of risks to the system

Limited access orders in the developing world :a new approach to the problems of development

The upper-income, advanced industrial countries of the world today all have market economies with open competition, competitive multi-party democratic political systems, and a secure government monopoly over violence. Such open access orders, however, are not the only norm and equilibrium type of society. The middle and low-income developing countries today, like all countries before about 1800, can be understood as limited access orders that maintain their equilibrium in a fundamentally different way. In limited access orders, the state does not have a secure monopoly on violence, and society organizes itself to control violence among the elite factions. A common feature of limited access orders is that political elites divide up control of the economy, each getting some share of the rents. Since outbreaks of violence reduce the rents, the elite factions have incentives to be peaceable most of the time. Adequate stability of the rents and thus of the social order requires limiting access and competition-hence a social order with a fundamentally different logic than the open access order. This paper lays out such a framework and explores some of its implications for the problems of development today.Corporate Law,Labor Policies,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,E-Business,Disability

Remote sensing of vigor loss in conifers due to dwarf mistletoe

The initial operation of a multiband/multidate tower-tramway test site in northeastern Minnesota for the development of specifications for subsequent multiband aerial photography of more extensive study areas was completed. Multiband/multidate configurations suggested by the tower-tramway studies were and will be flown with local equipment over the Togo test site. This site was photographed by the NASA RB57F aircraft in August and September 1971. It appears that, of all the film/filter combinations attempted to date (including optical recombining of several spectral band images via photo enhancement techniques), Ektachrome infrared film with a Wratten 12 filter is the best for detecting dwarf mistletoe, and other tree diseases as well. Using this film/filter combination, infection centers are easily detectable even on the smallest photo scale (1:100,000) obtained on the Togo site

Natural Cycles, Gases

The major gaseous components of the exhaust of stratospheric aircraft are expected to be the products of combustion (CO2 and H2O), odd nitrogen (NO, NO2 HNO3), and products indicating combustion inefficiencies (CO and total unburned hydrocarbons). The species distributions are produced by a balance of photochemical and transport processes. A necessary element in evaluating the impact of aircraft exhaust on the lower stratospheric composition is to place the aircraft emissions in perspective within the natural cycles of stratospheric species. Following are a description of mass transport in the lower stratosphere and a discussion of the natural behavior of the major gaseous components of the stratospheric aircraft exhaust

Relation between Stochastic Resonance and Synchronization of Passages in a Double-Well System

We calculate, numerically, the residence times (and their distribution) of a Brownian particle in a two-well system under the action of a periodic, saw-tooth type, external field. We define hysteresis in the system. The hysteresis loop area is shown to be a good measure of synchronization of passages from one well to the other. We establish connection between this stochastic synchronization and stochastic resonance in the system.Comment: To appear in PRE May 1997, figures available on reques

Sin nombre virus in deer mice captured inside homes, southwestern Montana.

From 1996 through 1999, 35 deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) were captured in 25 urban and suburban homes in southwestern Montana. Mice were captured throughout the year except for January; seven mice (20%) from seven (28%) of the homes were seropositive for Sin Nombre virus. The infected mice were mostly adult males captured in the spring and fall

A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100

The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates

Epidemiology and fitness effects of wood mouse herpesvirus in a natural host population

Rodent gammaherpesviruses have become important models for understanding human herpesvirus diseases. In particular, interactions between murid herpesvirus 4 and Mus musculus (a non-natural host species) have been extensively studied under controlled laboratory conditions. However, several fundamental aspects of murine gammaherpesvirus biology are not well understood, including how these viruses are transmitted from host to host, and their impacts on host fitness under natural conditions. Here, we investigate the epidemiology of a gammaherpesvirus in free-living wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in a 2-year longitudinal study. Wood mouse herpesvirus (WMHV) was the only herpesvirus detected and occurred frequently in wood mice and also less commonly in bank voles. Strikingly, WMHV infection probability was highest in reproductively active, heavy male mice. Infection risk also showed a repeatable seasonal pattern, peaking in spring and declining through the summer. We show that this seasonal decline can be at least partly attributed to reduced recapture of WMHV-infected adults. These results suggest that male reproductive behaviours could provide an important natural route of transmission for these viruses. They also suggest that gammaherpesvirus infection may have significant detrimental effects in wild hosts, questioning the view that these viruses have limited impacts in natural, co-evolved host species