Online communication as a window to conspiracist worldviews

In spite of the social stigma surrounding them, conspiracy theories are a common topic of public debate on the Internet. The content and tone of these discussions provide a useful insight into the structure of conspiracist belief systems and the psychological characteristics of those who believe and disbelieve in conspiracy theories. In this focused review, we relate patterns of behaviour found in online comments to the broader research literature on the psychology of conspiracy theories. Most notably, as conspiracism has its basis in disbelieving a mainstream or received narrative rather than in believing a specific alternative, most conspiracist arguments tend to fall along those same lines. Finally, we examine the implications of this methodology for future research into online discussion, particularly among hard-to-research populations

The role of tropical forests in supporting biodiversity and hydrological integrity: a synoptic overview

Conservation of high-biodiversity tropical forests is sometimes justified on the basis of assumed hydrological benefits - in particular, the reduction of flooding hazards for downstream floodplain populations. However, the"far-field"link between deforestation and distant flooding has been difficult to demonstrate empirically. This simulation study assesses the relationship between forest cover and hydrology for all river basins intersecting the world's tropical forest biomes. The study develops a consistent set of pan-tropical land cover maps gridded at one-half degree latitude and longitude. It integrates these data with existing global biogeophysical data. The study applies the Water Balance Model - a coarse-scale process-based hydrological model - to assess the impact of land cover changes on runoff. It quantifies the impacts of forest conversion on biodiversity and hydrology for two scenarios - historical forest conversion and the potential future conversion of the most threatened remaining tropical forests. A worst-case scenario of complete conversion of the most threatened of the remaining forested areas would mean the loss of another three million km2 of tropical forests. Increased annual yield from the conversion of threatened tropical forests would be less than 5 percent of contemporary yield in aggregate. However, about 100 million people - 80 million of them in floodplains - would experience increases of more than 25 percent in annual water flows. This might be associated with commensurate increases in peak flows, though further analysis would be necessary to gauge the impact on flooding. The study highlights basins in Southeast Asia, southern China, and Latin America that warrant further study.Wetlands,Forestry,Climate Change,Drylands&Desertification,Earth Sciences&GIS

Evaluation of a feedback equalization algorithm in the CID Wearable Digital Hearing Aid

This paper describes the results of an investigation which examined the efficacy of a feedback equalization algorithm incorporated into the Central Institute for the Deaf Wearable Digital Hearing Aid. The study examined whether the feedback equalization would allow for greater usable gains when subjects listened to soft speech signals, and if so, whether or not this would improve speech intelligibility

Improved prediction of hiking speeds using a data driven approach

Hikers and hillwalkers typically use the gradient in the direction of travel (walking slope) as the main variable in established methods for predicting walking time (via the walking speed) along a route. Research into fell-running has suggested further variables which may improve speed algorithms in this context; the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) and the level of terrain obstruction. Recent improvements in data availability, as well as widespread use of GPS tracking now make it possible to explore these variables in a walking speed model at a sufficient scale to test statistical significance. We tested various established models used to predict walking speed against public GPS data from almost 88,000 km of UK walking / hiking tracks. Tracks were filtered to remove breaks and non-walking sections. A new generalised linear model (GLM) was then used to predict walking speeds. Key differences between the GLM and established rules were that the GLM considered the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) irrespective of walking slope, as well as the terrain type and level of terrain obstruction in off-road travel. All of these factors were shown to be highly significant, and this is supported by a lower root-mean-square-error compared to existing functions. We also observed an increase in RMSE between the GLM and established methods as hill slope increases, further supporting the importance of this variable

Avian Diversity, Abundance, and Nest Success among Managed Prairies and Agricultural Plots in Oklahoma and Texas

Over the last 50 years, grassland birds experienced rapid declines due to habitat loss and degradation as a result of agricultural practices. Our objective was to document the diversity, abundance, and nest success of bird communities using managed prairie and agricultural plots at the Tishomingo National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in southern Oklahoma and Hagerman NWR in northern Texas. From April 1 to July 15, 2013–2014, point count surveys, nest searches, nest monitoring, and vegetation sampling were conducted among three habitat treatments: managed prairie, unharvested wheat, and fallow agricultural plots. Species richness values for potential nesting species were higher in managed prairies at both refuges, whereas species abundance rates varied among treatments. Nest success rates were low at both refuges due to nest abandonment and predators. Due to vegetation diversity, species were more likely to nest in managed prairies compared to agricultural plots with more homogenous vegetation at both refuges. Managed prairies at both refuges were relatively small and fragmented resulting in edge effects, such as increased nest predation and brood parasitism. We recommend increasing the area of managed prairies to provide more habitat for bird species at both refuges

Improved prediction of hiking speeds using a data driven approach

Hikers and hillwalkers typically use the gradient in the direction of travel (walking slope) as the main variable in established methods for predicting walking time (via the walking speed) along a route. Research into fell-running has suggested further variables which may improve speed algorithms in this context; the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) and the level of terrain obstruction. Recent improvements in data availability, as well as widespread use of GPS tracking now make it possible to explore these variables in a walking speed model at a sufficient scale to test statistical significance. We tested various established models used to predict walking speed against public GPS data from almost 88,000 km of UK walking / hiking tracks. Tracks were filtered to remove breaks and non-walking sections. A new generalised linear model (GLM) was then used to predict walking speeds. Key differences between the GLM and established rules were that the GLM considered the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) irrespective of walking slope, as well as the terrain type and level of terrain obstruction in off-road travel. All of these factors were shown to be highly significant, and this is supported by a lower root-mean-square-error compared to existing functions. We also observed an increase in RMSE between the GLM and established methods as hill slope increases, further supporting the importance of this variable.Comment: 37 pages, 13 figure

Impending Backlog of Cleft Palate Patients Due to COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed an unprecedented strain on healthcare systems worldwide, but while high-income countries (HICs) have been able to adapt, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been much slower to do so due to a lack of funding, skilled healthcare providers, equipment, and facilities. The redistribution of resources to combat the pandemic in LMICs has resulted in decreased surgical volumes at local surgical centers as well as a dramatic reduction in the number of humanitarian aid missions. Despite recent global investment in improving the surgical capacities of LMICs, even in the pre-COVID-19 era there was a vast unmet surgical need. This deficit in surgical capacity has grown during the pandemic and it will be a significant struggle to overcome the resulting backlog of patients. A topic of particular concern to the authors is the effect that the pandemic will have on the delivery of time-sensitive surgical care to patients with cleft palate deformities as delay in providing care can have enormous physical and psychosocial consequences. This paper draws increased attention to the lasting impact that the COVID-19 pandemic may have on cleft palate patients in LMICs. SSRN Pre-print server link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3898055

Are Conspiracy Theories a Surrogate for God?

The decline of traditional religion in the West has been matched by a rise in the visibility of conspiracy theories. Are conspiracy theories therefore a replacement for religious belief in an increasingly secular society? Conspiracy theories seem to fulfil some of the psychological needs addressed by religion, such as imposing a sense of order and agency upon the world, and the two seem to share some of the same psychological predispositions. Many conspiracy beliefs have parallels in content and structure to religious beliefs: some propose an Edenic existence that was corrupted by a conspiracy, while others anticipate an apocalypse that will be either brought about or welcomed by a conspiracy. In this chapter, we take a psychological perspective on the parallels between religion and conspiracy theory, and discussing how the two types of belief systems complement and contradict one another

Seabed Warfare and Target Folder Processes (Continuation)

NPS NRP Project PosterProcesses used to collect, process, exploit, and disseminate certain data gathered in undersea environments, specifically intended to support target development, currently do not align with existing joint warfighting authorities, decision-making matrices, information-sharing alliances, vernacular, metrics, data systems, or data formats. Multiple other required future decisions about how best to translate seabed warfare into the joint arena rest on this foundational issue. This study intends to determine how best to physically transmit, archive, manipulate, and reference certain types of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data. The resulting tasking, processing, collections, exploitation, and dissemination (TCPED) chain must exist in such a way that will enable the data to be equally usable as, and comparable to, other ISR data types that already conform to mature sets of processes recognized across all the Department of Defense, the national Intelligence Community, and many foreign military partners. Project team members envision that this will be a multi-year process, with the first year focusing on comparing and contrasting two types of existing processes. This second year will employ Monterey Phoenix computer simulation capabilities for best fit of information, organization and processes.Naval Undersea Warfighting Development Center (UWDC)U.S. Fleet Forces Command (USFF)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

USV and UAV Teaming for ISR-T Capability

NPS NRP Executive SummaryDistributed Maritime Operations (DMO) requires surveillance and targeting information on enemy warships at a great distance. Current DMO CONEMPS/CONOPS and Navy Strategy on Medium/Large USV operations need to apply to USV/UAV teaming in ISR-T capabilities. In a satellite denied environment, UAVs may be launched from USVs to provide an ISR-T capability, possibly a UAV small enough to fit on an MUSV, with a 200 nm range/24-hour airborne capability. We expect to find how potential C3 concepts for employment and utilization apply to the UOC and what current commercial, defense & government UAV options are available for ISR-T, to include recovery and refueling aboard the USV or recovering at a shore site. Our findings will be able to lead to recommendations in leading to using USV/UAV teaming in the ISR-T arena.Commander, Naval Surface Forces (CNSF)U.S. Fleet Forces Command (USFF)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.