Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

Citation: Raghavan, R. K., Hanlon, C. A., Goodin, D. G., Davis, R., Moore, M., Moore, S., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10(4), 16. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004632Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007-2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km(2) home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed

Towards a framework for analysis of eye-tracking studies in the three dimensional environment: a study of visual search by experienced readers of endoluminal CT colonography.

Objective: Eye tracking in three dimensions is novel, but established descriptors derived from two-dimensional (2D) studies are not transferable. We aimed to develop metrics suitable for statistical comparison of eye-tracking data obtained from readers of three-dimensional (3D) “virtual” medical imaging, using CT colonography (CTC) as a typical example. Methods: Ten experienced radiologists were eye tracked while observing eight 3D endoluminal CTC videos. Sub-sequently, we developed metrics that described their visual search patterns based on concepts derived from 2D gaze studies. Statistical methods were developed to allow analysis of the metrics. Results: Eye tracking was possible for all readers. Visual dwell on the moving region of interest (ROI) was defined as pursuit of the moving object across multiple frames. Using this concept of pursuit, five categories of metrics were defined that allowed characterization of reader gaze behaviour. These were time to first pursuit, identi-fication and assessment time, pursuit duration, ROI size and pursuit frequency. Additional subcategories allowed us to further characterize visual search between readers in the test population. Conclusion: We propose metrics for the characterization of visual search of 3D moving medical images. These metrics can be used to compare readers’ visual search patterns and provide a reproducible framework for the analysis of gaze tracking in the 3D environment. Advances in knowledge: This article describes a novel set of metrics that can be used to describe gaze behaviour when eye tracking readers during interpretation of 3D medical images. These metrics build on those established for 2D eye tracking and are applicable to increasingly common 3D medical image displays

Mapping MOS-HIV to HUI3 and EQ-5D-3L in Patients With HIV

Objectives: The Medical Outcomes Study HIV Health Survey (MOS-HIV) is frequently used in HIV clinical trials; however, scores generated from the MOS-HIV are not suited for cost-effectiveness analyses as they do not assign utility values to health states. Our objective was to estimate and externally validate several mapping algorithms to predict Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) and EQ-5D-3L utility values from the MOS-HIV. Methods: We developed and validated mapping algorithms using data from two HIV clinical trials. Data from the first trial (n = 367) formed the estimation data set for the HUI3 (4,610 observations) and EQ-5D-3L (4,662 observations) mapping algorithms; data from the second trial (n = 168) formed the HUI3 (1,135 observations) and EQ-5D-3L (1,152 observations) external validation data set. We compared ordinary least squares (OLS) models of increasing complexity with the more flexible two-part, beta regression, and finite mixture models. We assessed model performance using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE). Results: The OLS model that used MOS-HIV dimension scores along with squared terms gave the best HUI3 predictions (mean observed 0.84; mean predicted 0.80; MAE 0.0961); the finite mixture model gave the best EQ-5D-3L predictions (mean observed 0.90; mean predicted 0.88; MAE 0.0567). All models produced higher prediction errors at the lower end of the HUI3 and EQ-5D-3L score ranges

Hectospec, the MMT's 300 Optical Fiber-Fed Spectrograph

The Hectospec is a 300 optical fiber fed spectrograph commissioned at the MMT in the spring of 2004. A pair of high-speed six-axis robots move the 300 fiber buttons between observing configurations within ~300 s and to an accuracy ~25 microns. The optical fibers run for 26 m between the MMT's focal surface and the bench spectrograph operating at R~1000-2000. Another high dispersion bench spectrograph offering R~5,000, Hectochelle, is also available. The system throughput, including all losses in the telescope optics, fibers, and spectrograph peaks at ~10% at the grating blaze in 1" FWHM seeing. Correcting for aperture losses at the 1.5" diameter fiber entrance aperture, the system throughput peaks at $\sim$17%. Hectospec has proven to be a workhorse instrument at the MMT. Hectospec and Hectochelle together were scheduled for 1/3 of the available nights since its commissioning. Hectospec has returned \~60,000 reduced spectra for 16 scientific programs during its first year of operation.Comment: 68 pages, 28 figures, to appear in December 2005 PAS

Chemotherapy alone for organ preservation in advanced laryngeal cancer

Background. For patients with advanced laryngeal cancer, a trial was designed to determine if chemotherapy alone, in patients achieving a complete histologic complete response after a single neoadjuvant cycle, was an effective treatment with less morbidity than concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Methods. Thirty-two patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer received 1 cycle of induction chemotherapy, and subsequent treatment was decided based on response. Results. A histologic complete response was achieved in 4 patients and were treated with chemotherapy alone. All 4 patients' cancer relapsed in the neck and required surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Twenty-five patients were treated with concomitant chemoradiation. Three patients were treated with surgery. Overall survival and disease-specific survival at 3 years were 68% and 78%, respectively. Conclusion. Chemotherapy alone is not feasible for long-term control of regional disease in patients with advanced laryngeal cancer even when they achieve a histologic complete response at the primary site. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck, 2010Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/77508/1/21285_ftp.pd

MIBG avidity correlates with clinical features, tumor biology, and outcomes in neuroblastoma: A report from the Children’s Oncology Group

BackgroundPrior studies suggest that neuroblastomas that do not accumulate metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) on diagnostic imaging (MIBG non‐avid) may have more favorable features compared with MIBG avid tumors. We compared clinical features, biologic features, and clinical outcomes between patients with MIBG nonavid and MIBG avid neuroblastoma.ProcedurePatients had metastatic high‐ or intermediate‐risk neuroblastoma and were treated on Children’s Oncology Group protocols A3973 or A3961. Comparisons of clinical and biologic features according to MIBG avidity were made with chi‐squared or Fisher exact tests. Event‐free (EFS) and overall (OS) survival compared using log–rank tests and modeled using Cox models.ResultsThirty of 343 patients (8.7%) had MIBG nonavid disease. Patients with nonavid tumors were less likely to have adrenal primary tumors (34.5 vs. 57.2%; P = 0.019), bone metastases (36.7 vs. 61.7%; P = 0.008), or positive urine catecholamines (66.7 vs. 91.0%; P < 0.001) compared with patients with MIBG avid tumors. Nonavid tumors were more likely to be MYCN amplified (53.8 vs. 32.6%; P = 0.030) and had lower norepinephrine transporter expression. Patients with MIBG nonavid disease had a 5‐year EFS of 50.0% compared with 38.7% for patients with MIBG avid disease (P = 0.028). On multivariate testing in high‐risk patients, MIBG avidity was the sole adverse prognostic factor for EFS identified (hazard ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval 1.04–2.99; P = 0.034).ConclusionsPatients with MIBG nonavid neuroblastoma have lower rates of adrenal primary tumors, bone metastasis, and catecholamine secretion. Despite being more likely to have MYCN‐amplified tumors, these patients have superior outcomes compared with patients with MIBG avid disease.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138438/1/pbc26545_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138438/2/pbc26545.pd

Rapid progression of prostate cancer in men with a BRCA2 mutation.

Men with BRCA2 mutations have been found to be at increased risk of developing prostate cancer. There is a recent report that BRCA2 carriers with prostate cancer have poorer survival than noncarrier prostate cancer patients. In this study, we compared survival of men with a BRCA2 mutation and prostate cancer with that of men with a BRCA1 mutation and prostate cancer. We obtained the age at diagnosis, age at death or current age from 182 men with prostate cancer from families with a BRCA2 mutation and from 119 men with prostate cancer from families with a BRCA1 mutation. The median survival from diagnosis was 4.0 years for men with a BRCA2 mutation vs 8.0 years for men with a BRCA1 mutation, and the difference was highly significant (P&lt;0.01). It may be important to develop targeted chemotherapies to treat prostate cancer in men with a BRCA2 mutation

The Updated Zwicky Catalog (UZC)

The Zwicky Catalog of galaxies (ZC), with m_Zw<=15.5mag, has been the basis for the Center for Astrophysics (CfA) redshift surveys. To date, analyses of the ZC and redshift surveys based on it have relied on heterogeneous sets of galaxy coordinates and redshifts. Here we correct some of the inadequacies of previous catalogs by providing: (1) coordinates with <~2 arcsec errors for all of the Nuzc catalog galaxies, (2) homogeneously estimated redshifts for the majority (98%) of the data taken at the CfA (14,632 spectra), and (3) an estimate of the remaining "blunder" rate for both the CfA redshifts and for those compiled from the literature. For the reanalyzed CfA data we include a calibrated, uniformly determined error and an indication of the presence of emission lines in each spectrum. We provide redshifts for 7,257 galaxies in the CfA2 redshift survey not previously published; for another 5,625 CfA redshifts we list the remeasured or uniformly re-reduced value. Among our new measurements, Nmul are members of UZC "multiplets" associated with the original Zwicky catalog position in the coordinate range where the catalog is 98% complete. These multiplets provide new candidates for examination of tidal interactions among galaxies. All of the new redshifts correspond to UZC galaxies with properties recorded in the CfA redshift compilation known as ZCAT. About 1,000 of our new measurements were motivated either by inadequate signal-to-noise in the original spectrum or by an ambiguous identification of the galaxy associated with a ZCAT redshift. The redshift catalog we include here is ~96% complete to m_Zw<=15.5, and ~98% complete (12,925 galaxies out of a total of 13,150) for the RA(1950) ranges [20h--4h] and [8h--17h] and DEC(1950) range [-2.5d--50d]. (abridged)Comment: 34 pp, 7 figs, PASP 1999, 111, 43