A Framework for Inferring Taxonomic Class of Asteroids.

Introduction: Taxonomic classification of asteroids based on their visible / near-infrared spectra or multi band photometry has proven to be a useful tool to infer other properties about asteroids. Meteorite analogs have been identified for several taxonomic classes, permitting detailed inference about asteroid composition. Trends have been identified between taxonomy and measured asteroid density. Thanks to NEOWise (Near-Earth-Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) and Spitzer (Spitzer Space Telescope), approximately twice as many asteroids have measured albedos than the number with taxonomic classifications. (If one only considers spectroscopically determined classifications, the ratio is greater than 40.) We present a Bayesian framework that provides probabilistic estimates of the taxonomic class of an asteroid based on its albedo. Although probabilistic estimates of taxonomic classes are not a replacement for spectroscopic or photometric determinations, they can be a useful tool for identifying objects for further study or for asteroid threat assessment models. Inputs and Framework: The framework relies upon two inputs: the expected fraction of each taxonomic class in the population and the albedo distribution of each class. Luckily, numerous authors have addressed both of these questions. For example, the taxonomic distribution by number, surface area and mass of the main belt has been estimated and a diameter limited estimate of fractional abundances of the near earth asteroid population was made. Similarly, the albedo distributions for taxonomic classes have been estimated for the combined main belt and NEA (Near Earth Asteroid) populations in different taxonomic systems and for the NEA population specifically. The framework utilizes a Bayesian inference appropriate for categorical data. The population fractions provide the prior while the albedo distributions allow calculation of the likelihood an albedo measurement is consistent with a given taxonomic class. These inputs allows calculation of the probability an asteroid with a specified albedo belongs to any given taxonomic class

Considering Deflection Missions for Asteroid Impact Risk

No abstract availabl

First Results from SPARO: Evidence for Large-Scale Toroidal Magnetic Fields in the Galactic Center

We have observed the linear polarization of 450 micron continuum emission from the Galactic center, using a new polarimetric detector system that is operated on a 2 m telescope at the South Pole. The resulting polarization map extends ~ 170 pc along the Galactic plane and ~ 30 pc in Galactic latitude, and thus covers a significant fraction of the central molecular zone. Our map shows that this region is permeated by large-scale toroidal magnetic fields. We consider our results together with radio observations that show evidence for poloidal fields in the Galactic center, and with Faraday rotation observations. We compare all of these observations with the predictions of a magnetodynamic model for the Galactic center that was proposed in order to explain the Galactic Center Radio Lobe as a magnetically driven gas outflow. We conclude that the observations are basically consistent with the model.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, submitted to ApJ Let

Far-infrared polarimetry from the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy

Multi-wavelength imaging polarimetry at far-infrared wavelengths has proven to be an excellent tool for studying the physical properties of dust, molecular clouds, and magnetic fields in the interstellar medium. Although these wavelengths are only observable from airborne or space-based platforms, no first-generation instrument for the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is presently designed with polarimetric capabilities. We study several options for upgrading the High-resolution Airborne Wideband Camera (HAWC) to a sensitive FIR polarimeter. HAWC is a 12 x 32 pixel bolometer camera designed to cover the 53 - 215 micron spectral range in 4 colors, all at diffraction-limited resolution (5 - 21 arcsec). Upgrade options include: (1) an external set of optics which modulates the polarization state of the incoming radiation before entering the cryostat window; (2) internal polarizing optics; and (3) a replacement of the current detector array with two state-of-the-art superconducting bolometer arrays, an upgrade of the HAWC camera as well as polarimeter. We discuss a range of science studies which will be possible with these upgrades including magnetic fields in star-forming regions and galaxies and the wavelength-dependence of polarization.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

The Role of Physical and Numerical Modeling in Design Development of the Priest Rapids Fish Bypass

This paper describes a number of years of physical and numerical modelling that were instrumental in the development of the final fish bypass design at Priest Rapids Dam. Three physical models and multiple numerical models were used to guide the design of the fish bypass including its location on the dam, impact on forebay and tailrace flow patterns, intake configuration, design flow rates, flow control scheme, tailrace egress, potential for scour near the dam, potential impacts on total dissolved gas (TDG), impacts on spillway and powerhouse operation, and overall fish friendliness of the bypass. Throughout those years of design work, results from actively tagged salmonid smolt studies were used to guide and validate each step of the design process. In 2011, a construction contract was awarded and the Priest Rapids Fish Bypass facility was completed in the early spring of 2014. Final validation of this newly constructed facility came in the spring of 2014 with a survival and behavior study conducted using acoustic tagged yearling Chinook and juvenile steelhead smolts to evaluate the salmonid smolt survival rate through the bypass along with the fish passage efficiency (FPE) of the bypass facility. This paper discusses the physical models plus CFD models used to support the design development of a non-turbine fish bypass and presents the results of the survival and behaviour studies conducted after the fish bypass was installed at Priest Rapids Dam

Can Self-Prediction Overcome Barriers to Hepatitis B Vaccination? A Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a serious public health problem, due in part to low vaccination rates among high-risk adults, many of whom decline vaccination because of barriers such as perceived inconvenience or discomfort. This study evaluates the efficacy of a self-prediction intervention to increase HBV vaccination rates among high-risk adults. Method: Randomized controlled trial of 1,175 adults recruited from three sexually transmitted disease clinics in the United States over 28 months. Participants completed an audio-computer-assisted self-interview, which presented information about HBV infection and vaccination, and measured relevant beliefs, behaviors, and demographics. Half of participants were assigned randomly to a “self-prediction” intervention, asking them to predict their future acceptance of HBV vaccination. The main outcome measure was subsequent vaccination behavior. Other measures included perceived barriers to HBV vaccination, measured prior to the intervention. Results: There was a significant interaction between the intervention and vaccination barriers, indicating the effect of the intervention differed depending on perceived vaccination barriers. Among high-barriers patients, the intervention significantly increased vaccination acceptance. Among low-barriers patients, the intervention did not influence vaccination acceptance. Conclusions: The self-prediction intervention significantly increased vaccination acceptance among “high-barriers” patients, who typically have very low vaccination rates. This brief intervention could be a useful tool in increasing vaccine uptake among high-barriers patients

Statistical Assessment of Shapes and Magnetic Field Orientations in Molecular Clouds through Polarization Observations

We present a novel statistical analysis aimed at deriving the intrinsic shapes and magnetic field orientations of molecular clouds using dust emission and polarization observations by the Hertz polarimeter. Our observables are the aspect ratio of the projected plane-of-the-sky cloud image, and the angle between the mean direction of the plane-of-the-sky component of the magnetic field and the short axis of the cloud image. To overcome projection effects due to the unknown orientation of the line-of-sight, we combine observations from 24 clouds, assuming that line-of-sight orientations are random and all are equally probable. Through a weighted least-squares analysis, we find that the best-fit intrinsic cloud shape describing our sample is an oblate disk with only small degrees of triaxiality. The best-fit intrinsic magnetic field orientation is close to the direction of the shortest cloud axis, with small (~24 deg) deviations toward the long/middle cloud axes. However, due to the small number of observed clouds, the power of our analysis to reject alternative configurations is limited.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Hertz: an imaging polarimeter

The University of Chicago polarimeter, Hertz, is designed for observations at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory in the 350 µm atmospheric window. Initial observations with this instrument, the first array polarimeter for submillimeter observations, have produced over 700 measurements at 3σ or better. This paper summarizes the characteristics of the instrument, presents examples of its performance including polarization maps of molecular clouds and regions near the Galactic center, and outlines the opportunities for improvements with emphasis on requirements for mapping widely extended sources