Near Earth Asteroid Characteristics for Asteroid Threat Assessment

Information about the physical characteristics of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) is needed to model behavior during atmospheric entry, to assess the risk of an impact, and to model possible mitigation techniques. The intrinsic properties of interest to entry and mitigation modelers, however, rarely are directly measureable. Instead we measure other properties and infer the intrinsic physical properties, so determining the complete set of characteristics of interest is far from straightforward. In addition, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. We will provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the physical characteristics of importance to asteroid threat assessment. In addition, an ongoing effort to collate NEA characteristics into a readily accessible database for use by the planetary defense community will be discussed

Second Annual NASA Ames Space Science and Astrobiology Jamboree

The Space Science and Astrobiology Division's researchers are pursuing investigations in a variety of fields, including exoplanets, planetary science, astrobiology, and astrophysics. In addition division personnel support a wide variety of NASA missions. With a wide variety of interesting research going on, distributed among the three branches in at least 5 buildings, it can be difficult to stay abreast of what one's fellow researchers are doing. Our goal in organizing this symposium is to facilitate communication and collaboration among the scientist within the division and to give center management and other ARC researchers and Engineers an opportunity to see what scientific missions work is being done in the division

Taxonomies and Albedos of Near-Earth Asteroids

Characterizing near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) can help to assess the risk of possible impactors. Over many decades, asteroids have been spectrally classified into numerous taxonomic systems, most notably those of Tholen, Bus, and Bus-DeMeo. By mapping these various taxonomic systems to broader categories called complexes, it is easier to study the relationship between classifications and other physical parameters. There has recently been an increase in the number of objects with measured albedos which is advantageous for characterization because the albedo and absolute magnitude can be used to determine diameter. Knowing an asteroids diameter helps us better understand dangers they may pose

Sensitivity of Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

A central challenge in evaluating the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty in potential asteroid properties and entry parameters, which can vary the resulting ground damage and affected population by orders of magnitude. We are using our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to these uncertainties. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix or vary the different input parameters and compare the damage distributions produced. In this study, we consider local ground damage from blast waves or thermal radiation for impactors 50-500m in diameter. The ongoing goal of this work is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk

Kepler Bonus: Light Curves of Kepler Background Sources

NASA's \textit{Kepler} primary mission observed about 116 $deg^2$ in the sky for 3.5 consecutive years to discover Earth-like exoplanets. This mission recorded pixel cutouts, known as Target Pixel Files (TPFs), of over $200,000$ targets selected to maximize the scientific yield. The Kepler pipeline performed aperture photometry for these primary targets to create light curves. However, hundreds of thousands of background sources were recorded in the TPFs and have never been systematically analyzed. This work uses the Linearized Field Deblending (LFD) method, a Point Spread Function (PSF) photometry algorithm, to extract light curves. We use Gaia DR3 as input catalog to extract $606,900$ light curves from long-cadence TPFs. $406,548$ are new light curves of background sources, while the rest are Kepler's targets. These light curves have comparable quality as those computed by the Kepler pipeline, with CDPP values $<100$ ppm for sources $G<16$. The light curve files are available as high-level science products at MAST. Files include PSF and aperture photometry, and extraction metrics. Additionally, we improve the background and PSF modeling in the LFD method. The LFD method is implemented in the \texttt{Python} library \texttt{psfmachine}. We demonstrate the advantages of this new dataset with two examples; deblending of contaminated false positive Kepler Object of Interest identifying the origin of the transit signal; and the changes in estimated transit depth of planets using PSF photometry which improves dilution when compared to aperture photometry. This new nearly unbiased catalog enables further studies in planet search, occurrence rates, and other time-domain studies.Comment: 30 pages, 16 figures, 3 appendix section

The Pandora SmallSat: Mission Overview

The NASA Pioneers Program is tasked with performing compelling astrophysics science at lower cost, with smaller hardware, compared to Explorers Program missions. The Pandora SmallSat was selected as an inaugural Pioneers mission. Pandora uses an aluminum, 45-cm, dual channel Cassegrain telescope as its scientific instrument. The instrument will obtain the first dataset of simultaneous, multiband, long-baseline observations of exoplanets and their host stars. The goal is to use these data to reliably characterize planetary atmospheres by disentagling star and planet signals in transmission spectra. Early in project formulation, the Pandora team developed a suite of high-fidelity parametrized simulation and modeling tools to estimate the performance of both imaging channels. This enabled a unique bottoms-up approach to deriving system requirements. This approach, while unconventional for aerospace missions, enabled synergies between previously disparate existing technologies and capabilities throughout the mission. Pandora heavily leverages existing capabilities that required no to low amounts of engineering development, as well as firm-fixed-price contracts, to stay within the constraints of a Pioneers class mission. Pandora will disrupt the cost-schedule paradigm of half-meter class observatories. The team is preparing for its Critical Design Review in October 2023. Launch to sun-synchronous low earth orbit is anticipated in early 2025

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroids physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options

Constraining the Size of Near Earth Asteroids

Quick and accurate determination of the size of an asteroid is of great interest to the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project and is difficult to accomplish. With a combination of visible and thermal measurements we employ a method that leverages the size estimations of each model as physical constraints on the true diameter. This method breaks degeneracies present in the thermal and visible model from sparse data. In the visible bands we use both the established H-G relationship and its successor the H-G1G2 model, which has improved capabilities in the opposition effect and large phase angles. For the thermal models we use the Near Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM), the Night Emission Simulated Thermal Model (NESTM), and the Advanced Thermophysical Model (ATPM)