Demographic and socio-economic determinants of poor HIV-risk perception at first HIV diagnosis: analysis of the HIV Surveillance data, Italy 2010-2016

HIV infections in Italy has not undergone a substantial decline over recent years. For this reason, we analysed risk-factors and socio-economic indicators of HIV-risk perception in HIV surveillance data

combined antiretroviral therapy cart reduces aids related and non aids related mortality a temporal analysis from time of seroconversion sc

Objectives: To estimate changes of AIDS and non-AIDS mortalities from 1996 to 2010 comparing (2004-2010) vs. (1996-2003) periods from the time of HIV-seroconversion (SC). Methods: Data derived from an Italian multicentre prospective and open cohort; competing risks approach was applied estimating the cumulative incidence functions (CIF) for AIDS and non-AIDS deaths over time from SC with delayed entries in the two cART periods. Cox-cause-specific hazards models were applied to estimate relative hazards (RH) of AIDS and non-AIDS related deaths. Results: Of 2,249 individuals with known SC date followed from SC and from January 1996 to December 2010, 1,779 were survived, seroconverted or followed during 1996-2003, while 1,715 during 2004-2010. A total of 278 deaths occurred from 1996 to 2010: 197 in the early years of cART [61 (31%) non-AIDS deaths], and 81 during more recent cART period [48 (59%) non-AIDS deaths]. The CIF of AIDS related deaths was higher than CIF of non-AIDS related deaths in the early period [for instance, estimates at 15 yrs from SC: CIF of AIDS-related death = 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.19 ) and CIF of non-AIDS related = 0.09 (95% CI: 0.07-0.12)], whilst in 2004-2010 period the CIF of non-AIDS related deaths was slightly higher [estimates at 15 yrs from SC: CIF of non-AIDS related = 0.03 (95% CI: 0.02-0.04) vs. CIF of AIDS-related death = 0.02 (95% CI: 0.02-0.04)]. Comparing the two periods by Cox proportional-cause-specific models, the hazard was lower for AIDS deaths than for non-AIDS related deaths [RH of non-AIDS deaths from last viral load (VL) < 200 copies/mL was 0.60 (95% CI (0.35-1.03)], while of AIDS-deaths was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.17-0.62), both RH relative to (2004-2010) vs. (1996- 2003)]. Conclusions: Considering early years of the cART period as a reference, we observed a decrease in both AIDS and non-AIDS-mortalities. In more recent cART years, non-AIDS mortality tended to decline less than AIDS-relatedmortality since HIV-SC, even after effective cART

A population-based cohort approach to assess excess mortality due to the spread of COVID-19 in Italy, January-May 2020

Aims: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Italy during the first wave of the epidemic, taking into consideration the geographical heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19. Methods: This study is a retrospective, population-based cohort study using national statistics throughout Italy. Survival analysis was applied to data aggregated by day of death, age groups, sex, and Italian administrative units (107 provinces). We applied Cox models to estimate the relative hazards (RH) of excess mortality, comparing all-cause deaths in 2020 with the expected deaths from all causes in the same time period. The RH of excess deaths was estimated in areas with a high, moderate, and low spread of COVID-19. We reported the estimate also restricting the analysis to the period of March-April 2020 (first peak of the epidemic). Results: The study population consisted of 57,204,501 individuals living in Italy as of January 1, 2020. The number of excess deaths was 36,445, which accounts for 13.4% of excess mortalities from all causes during January-May 2020 (i.e., RH = 1.134; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.129-1.140). In the macro-area with a relatively higher spread of COVID-19 (i.e., incidence rate, IR): 450-1,610 cases per 100,000 residents), the RH of excess deaths was 1.375 (95% CI: 1.364-1.386). In the area with a relatively moderate spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 150-449 cases) it was 1.049 (95% CI: 1.038-1.060). In the area with a relatively lower spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 30-149 cases), it was 0.967 (95% CI: 0.959-0.976). Between March and April (peak months of the first wave of the epidemic in Italy), we estimated an excess mortality from all causes of 43.5%. The RH of all-cause mortality for increments of 500 cases per 100,000 residents was 1.352 (95% CI: 1.346-1.359), corresponding to an increase of about 35%. Conclusions: Our analysis, making use of a population-based cohort model, estimated all-cause excess mortality in Italy taking account of both time period and of COVID-19 geographical spread. The study highlights the importance of a temporal/geographic framework in analyzing the risk of COVID-19-epidemy related mortality

Pretreatment CD4 Cell Slope and Progression to AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy—The CASCADE Collaboration: A Collaboration of 23 Cohort Studies

Analyzing data from several thousand cohort study participants, Marcel Wolbers and colleagues find that the rate of CD4 T cell decline is not useful in deciding when to start HIV treatment

CD4saurus Rex &HIVelociraptor vs. development of clinically useful immunological markers: a Jurassic tale of frozen evolution

One of the most neglected areas of everyday clinical practice for HIV physicians is unexpectedly represented by CD4 T cell counts when used as an aid to clinical decisions. All who care for HIV patients believe that CD4+ T cell counts are a reliable method to evaluate a patient immune status. There is however a fatalistic acceptance that besides its general usefulness, CD4+ T cell counts have relevant clincal and immunological limits. Shortcomings of CD4 counts appear in certain clinical scenarios including identification of immunological nonresponders, subsequent development of cancer on antiretroviral teatment, failure on tretment simplification. Historical and recently described parameters might be better suited to advise management of patients at certain times during their disease history. Immunogenotypic parameters and innate immune parameters that define progression as well as immune parameters associated with immune recovery are available and have not been introduced into validation processes in larger trials. The scientific and clinical community needs an effort in stimulating clinical evolution of immunological tests beyond "CD4saurus Rex" introducing new parameters in the clinical arena after appropriate validatio

The Incidence of AIDS-Defining Illnesses at a Current CD4 Count ≥200 Cells/µL in the Post-Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Era

The incidence of AIDS was higher in patients with a current CD4 count of 500-749 cells/µL compared to 750-999 cells/µL, but did not decrease further at higher CD4 levels. Results were similar in those virologically suppressed on combination antiretroviral therapy, suggesting immune reconstitution is incomplete until CD4 >750/µ

Impact of CD4 and CD8 dynamics and viral rebounds on loss of virological control in HIV controllers

Objective: HIV controllers (HICs) spontaneously maintain HIV viral replication at low level without antiretroviral therapy (ART), a small number of whom will eventually lose this ability to control HIV viremia. The objective was to identify factors associated with loss of virological control. Methods: HICs were identified in COHERE on the basis of \ue2\u89\ua55 consecutive viral loads (VL) \ue2\u89\ua4500 copies/mL over \ue2\u89\ua51 year whilst ART-naive, with the last VL \ue2\u89\ua4500 copies/mL measured \ue2\u89\ua55 years after HIV diagnosis. Loss of virological control was defined as 2 consecutive VL &gt;2000 copies/mL. Duration of HIV control was described using cumulative incidence method, considering loss of virological control, ART initiation and death during virological control as competing outcomes. Factors associated with loss of virological control were identified using Cox models. CD4 and CD8 dynamics were described using mixed-effect linear models. Results: We identified 1067 HICs; 86 lost virological control, 293 initiated ART, and 13 died during virological control. Six years after confirmation of HIC status, the probability of losing virological control, initiating ART and dying were 13%, 37%, and 2%. Current lower CD4/CD8 ratio and a history of transient viral rebounds were associated with an increased risk of losing virological control. CD4 declined and CD8 increased before loss of virological control, and before viral rebounds. Discussion: Expansion of CD8 and decline of CD4 during HIV control may result from repeated low-level viremia. Our findings suggest that in addition to superinfection, other mechanisms, such as low grade viral replication, can lead to loss of virological control in HICs

A Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Sequences in Kiev: Findings Among Key Populations

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission. Methods: Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013–March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥2 sequences, ≥80% local branch support, and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Sequences were analyzed for transmitted drug resistance mutations. Results Thirty percent of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.56–7.50]); risk group (OR, 5.65 [95% CI, 3.27–9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males; recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.64–4.52]); reported sex work contact (OR, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.07–3.47]); and younger age groups compared with age ≥36 years (OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.10–3.05] for age ≤25 years). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, .31–.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype, and age group were independently associated with clustering (P < .001, P = .007, and P = .033, respectively). Eighteen sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of transmitted drug resistance. Conclusions Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups

Long-term Mortality in HIV-Positive Individuals Virally Suppressed for >3 Years With Incomplete CD4 Recovery

Virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy who do not achieve a CD4 count >200 cells/µL have substantially increased long-term mortality. The increased mortality was seen across different patient groups and for all causes of deat