Climate Change Increases Drought Stress of Juniper Trees in the Mountains of Central Asia

Assessments of climate change impacts on forests and their vitality are essential for semi-arid environments such as Central Asia, where the mountain regions belong to the globally important biodiversity hotspots. Alterations in species distribution or drought-induced tree mortality might not only result in a loss of biodiversity but also in a loss of other ecosystem services. Here, we evaluate spatial trends and patterns of the growth-climate relationship in a tree-ring network comprising 33 juniper sites from the northern Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges in eastern Uzbekistan and across Kyrgyzstan for the common period 1935-2011. Junipers growing at lower elevations are sensitive to summer drought, which has increased in intensity during the studied period. At higher elevations, juniper growth, previously favored by warm summer temperatures, has in the recent few decades become negatively affected by increasing summer aridity. Moreover, response shifts are observed during all seasons. Rising temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns during the past eight decades can account for the observed increase in drought stress of junipers at all altitudes. The implications of our findings are vital for the application of adequate long-term measures of ecosystem conservation, but also for paleo-climatic approaches and coupled climate-vegetation model simulations for Central Asia

Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests

The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from −20% to more than −50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21(st) century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation

Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth

The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.Here the authors show that extremes in the summer jet stream position over Europe create a beech forest productivity dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe and can result in regional anomalies in forest carbon uptake and growth