Concordant Convergence Empirics

We present a new model to test the convergence hypothesis based on the ideas of concordance and then employ the model to test empirically for GDP per capita convergence across 97 countries. Our results suggest the presence of switching, while there is more ‘strong divergence’ than ‘strong convergence’.Convergence; Concordance; Income per capita.

Convergence towards a Steady State Distribution

The convergence literature frequently presupposes some unidentified steady state distribution. This paper presents a new method to identify the presence and rate of convergence to a steady state distribution. The method is illustrated with application to UK regional male wages.Convergence; Steady state; Average UK regional male wages

Convergence across Spanish Provinces:Cross-section and Pairwise Evidence

Distribution free statistics are employed to investigate biennial income per capita convergence across 52 Spanish provinces over the period 1955-1997. Based upon ideas of concordance and discordance that capture convergence and divergence properties, the paper presents results that suggest convergence is dominant for the full sample over the entire period, swings in this trend between convergence and divergence are present and switching in rank does take place. When provinces are analysed in pairs some show strong evidence of divergence.Convergence; Steady state; Average UK regional male wages

A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds

Assessment of the limitations on the seismic detectability of injected CO2 within a deep geological reservoir

Aquistore is a deep saline CO2 storage research and demonstration project located near Estevan, Saskatchewan where CO2 is transported via pipeline and injected into a sandstone reservoir ∼3200 m below the surface. A pre-injection time-lapse analysis performed on two sparse 3D seismic datasets was used to characterise the background time-lapse signal-to-noise level at the storage site. The time-lapse analysis revealed that the lowest global nRMS was 0.07 which was taken to represent the level above which CO2 would be detectable in the reservoir. We investigate the conditions under which the injected CO2 can be detected above the defined minimum noise level through Gassmann fluid substitution and 3D seismic forward modelling. Additionally, Wave Unix was used to simulate the seismic response of the reservoir due to the injected CO2 by generating the synthetic surface reflection seismic data from an explosive surface P-wave source. We generated noise-free synthetic seismograms for the baseline model as well as for the 2-phase fluid replacement of brine with CO2 for CO2 concentrations up to 100% within the target zone – the monitors. The baseline and monitor traces from the 3D seismic survey at Aquistore are used as the noise traces in this study, and were added to their respective baseline and monitor synthetic traces. The nRMS within the reservoir was then computed for the noisy baseline and various noisy monitor surveys and was used in the assessment of the limitation to the detection of the injected CO2 in the reservoir under the background noise level at the site. We are able to conclude that the time-lapse repeatability will not limit the ability to monitor the CO2 induced changes in the reservoir at the Aquistore storage site

Productivity and proximity

Labour productivity is known to be higher in the presence of agglomeration economies. This paper presents an analysis of the shape of the relationship between labour productivity and the distance between the firm and the region’s central business district. Based on plant-level data across England our empirical estimates indicate that this relationship is non-linear

Comparison of geomechanical deformation induced by megatonne-scale CO2 storage at Sleipner, Weyburn, and In Salah

Geological storage of CO2 that has been captured at large, point source emitters represents a key potential method for reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, this technology will only be viable if it can be guaranteed that injected CO2 will remain trapped in the subsurface for thousands of years or more. A significant issue for storage security is the geomechanical response of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised that geomechanical deformation induced by CO2 injection will create or reactivate fracture networks in the sealing caprocks, providing a pathway for CO2 leakage. In this paper, we examine three large-scale sites where CO2 is injected at rates of ∼1 megatonne/y or more: Sleipner, Weyburn, and In Salah. We compare and contrast the observed geomechanical behavior of each site, with particular focus on the risks to storage security posed by geomechanical deformation. At Sleipner, the large, high-permeability storage aquifer has experienced little pore pressure increase over 15 y of injection, implying little possibility of geomechanical deformation. At Weyburn, 45 y of oil production has depleted pore pressures before increases associated with CO2 injection. The long history of the field has led to complicated, sometimes nonintuitive geomechanical deformation. At In Salah, injection into the water leg of a gas reservoir has increased pore pressures, leading to uplift and substantial microseismic activity. The differences in the geomechanical responses of these sites emphasize the need for systematic geomechanical appraisal before injection in any potential storage sit

VZV in biopsy-positive and -negative giant cell arteritis: Analysis of 100+ temporal arteries

Objective: Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection may trigger the inflammatory cascade that characterizes giant cell arteritis (GCA). Methods: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded GCA-positive temporal artery (TA) biopsies (50 sections/TA) including adjacent skeletal muscle and normal TAs obtained postmortem from subjects >50 years of age were examined by immunohistochemistry for presence and distribution of VZV antigen and by ultrastructural examination for virions. Adjacent regions were examined by hematoxylin & eosin staining. VZV antigen–positive slides were analyzed by PCR for VZV DNA. Results: VZV antigen was found in 61/82 (74%) GCA-positive TAs compared with 1/13 (8%) normal TAs (p < 0.0001, relative risk 9.67, 95% confidence interval 1.46, 63.69). Most GCA-positive TAs contained viral antigen in skip areas. VZV antigen was present mostly in adventitia, followed by media and intima. VZV antigen was found in 12/32 (38%) skeletal muscles adjacent to VZV antigen–positive TAs. Despite formalin fixation, VZV DNA was detected in 18/45 (40%) GCA-positive VZV antigen–positive TAs, in 6/10 (60%) VZV antigen–positive skeletal muscles, and in one VZV antigen–positive normal TA. Varicella-zoster virions were found in a GCA-positive TA. In sections adjacent to those containing VZV, GCA pathology was seen in 89% of GCA-positive TAs but in none of 18 adjacent sections from normal TAs. Conclusions: Most GCA-positive TAs contained VZV in skip areas that correlated with adjacent GCA pathology, supporting the hypothesis that VZV triggers GCA immunopathology. Antiviral treatment may confer additional benefit to patients with GCA treated with corticosteroids, although the optimal antiviral regimen remains to be determined