Challenges in macro-finance modeling

This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models. Particular attention is paid to the issue of unspanned short-run fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and their potentially adverse effect on the specification of external basis models. The author also discusses the challenge of addressing features such as structural breaks and time-varying inflation uncertainty. Empirical difficulties in the estimation and evaluation of macro-finance models are also discussed in detail.Econometric models ; Macroeconomics

A Characterization of Completely Reachable Automata

A complete deterministic finite automaton in which every non-empty subset of the state set occurs as the image of the whole state set under the action of a suitable input word is called completely reachable. We characterize completely reachable automata in terms of certain directed graphs.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, submitted to DLT 201

The Evolution and Expansion of Risk Management Education Programs in the United States

A rapidly changing business environment has dictated a need for farmers to improve their risk management skills. The 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR) also created a new environment for American farmers by eliminating planting restrictions and deficiency payments. Congress recognized the changing environment by mandating the Secretary of Agriculture to initiate a risk management education program. A memorandum of understanding specified the responsibilities of the federal agencies involved in risk management services and education. A work group representing all public and private organizations concerned with risk management services and strategies was convened. The work group established a set of objectives, the five major areas of risk to address and an overall educational plan. Five regional extension coordinating offices were established to coordinate activities with federal agencies and the private sector and to distribute funding for extension based educational programs. The initiative originally received funding of $5M in 1997. In 2000, the Agricultural Risk Protection Act, which primarily revised the crop insurance program, provided an additional$5M for risk management education for the 2001 fiscal year and the succeeding four years. The initiative has provided an impetus to look a risk management in a broad and comprehensive manner. This has resulted in the development of very creative and innovative programs, in terms of materials and methods of delivery. The working partnerships between public and private sector organizations have been a key to the success of the programs.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Morphological and Land use Characteristics of the Buffalo River Watershed

The Buffalo River was established by Congress iQ. 1972 as the first National River in the United States. The Buffalo River, which originates in the higher elevations of the Boston Mountains in Newton County, is one of the few remaining free-flowing streams in Arkansas. It is considered to be one of Arkansas\u27 greatest natural treasures, and thus, there is strong interest in protecting it from anthropogenic influences. An initial characterization of the soil taxonomic units, watershed boundaries, topography and physiographic units in the Buffalo River Watershed was presented by Scott and Smith (1994). The spatial distribution of the geologic units in the watershed was presented by Hofer et al. (1995)

Configuration Spaces Of Convex And Embedded Polygons In The Plane

This paper concerns the topology of configuration spaces of linkages whose underlying graph is a single cycle. Assume that the edge lengths are such that there are no configurations in which all the edges lie along a line. The main results are that, modulo translations and rotations, each component of the space of convex configurations is homeomorphic to a closed Euclidean ball and each component of the space of embedded configurations is homeomorphic to a Euclidean space. This represents an elaboration on the topological information that follows from the convexification theorem of Connelly, Demaine, and Rote

A Reexamination of Tax Distortions in General Equilibrium Models

General equilibrium models have recently been used to simulate the effects of many proposed tax changes. However, in modeling the effects of the government on the economy, these models have assumed for simplicity that marginal tax rates equal the observed average tax rates, and that marginal benefit rates are zero. The main purpose of this paper is to derive improved estimates of various marginal tax and benefit rates. Most importantly, we include in the model recent theories concerning the effects of combined corporate and personal taxes on corporate financial and investment decisions. The conclusions previously derived concerning the effects of corporate tax integration are then reexamined in light of the proposed changes.

New Inhomogeneous Einstein Metrics on Sphere Bundles Over Einstein-Kahler Manifolds

We construct new complete, compact, inhomogeneous Einstein metrics on S^{m+2} sphere bundles over 2n-dimensional Einstein-Kahler spaces K_{2n}, for all n \ge 1 and all m \ge 1. We also obtain complete, compact, inhomogeneous Einstein metrics on warped products of S^m with S^2 bundles over K_{2n}, for m>1. Additionally, we construct new complete, non-compact Ricci-flat metrics with topologies S^m times R^2 bundles over K_{2n} that generalise the higher-dimensional Taub-BOLT metrics, and with topologies S^m \times R^{2n+2} that generalise the higher-dimensional Taub-NUT metrics, again for m>1.Comment: Latex, 14 pages. Errors and typos corrected, and related references adde