19 research outputs found

    The size distribution, scaling properties and spatial organization of urban clusters: A global and regional percolation perspective

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    Human development has far-reaching impacts on the surface of the globe. The transformation of natural land cover occurs in different forms, and urban growth is one of the most eminent transformative processes. We analyze global land cover data and extract cities as defined by maximally connected urban clusters. The analysis of the city size distribution for all cities on the globe confirms Zipf’s law. Moreover, by investigating the percolation properties of the clustering of urban areas we assess the closeness to criticality for various countries. At the critical thresholds, the urban land cover of the countries undergoes a transition from separated clusters to a gigantic component on the country scale. We study the Zipf-exponents as a function of the closeness to percolation and find a systematic dependence, which could be the reason for deviating exponents reported in the literature. Moreover, we investigate the average size of the clusters as a function of the proximity to percolation and find country specific behavior. By relating the standard deviation and the average of cluster sizes—analogous to Taylor’s law—we suggest an alternative way to identify the percolation transition. We calculate spatial correlations of the urban land cover and find long-range correlations. Finally, by relating the areas of cities with population figures we address the global aspect of the allometry of cities, finding an exponent δ ≈ 0.85, i.e., large cities have lower densities

    Lessons for model use in transition research : a survey and comparison with other research areas

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    The use of models to study the dynamics of transitions is challenging because of several aspects of transitions, notably complexity, multi-domain and multi-level interactions. These challenges are shared by other research areas that extensively make use of models. In this article we survey experiences and methodological approaches developed in the research areas of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment, and environmental modeling, and derive lessons to be learnt for model use in transition studies. In order to account for specific challenges associated with different kinds of model applications we classify models according to their uses: for understanding transitions, for providing case-specific policy advice, and for facilitating stakeholder processes. The assessment reveals promising research directions for transition modeling, such as model-to-model analysis, pattern-oriented modeling, advanced sensitivity analysis, development of a shared conceptual framework, and use of modeling protocols

    Correction: Embodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets

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    <p>Correction: Embodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets</p

    A systematic approach to assess human wellbeing demonstrated for impacts of climate change

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    Climate change impacts will affect many important societal sectors, with potential negative consequences for human well-being and livelihoods, however an integrated and systematic measure to assess the state of livelihood conditions in this context is not available. At the same time, human livelihoods and wellbeing are an important part of (social) sustainability. Yet, aspects of human needs and well-being within assessments of sustainability are criticised for being arbitrary and incomplete. This paper presents a systematic approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a regional to global scale. Based on an interdisciplinary literature review, we first select a consistent set of elements that allow to describe and quantify well-being and livelihoods. In a second step, we analyze documented associations between the elements to outline climate impact pathways and indirect effects of changes in single system components, using an influence matrix. The novel approach provides an important first step to point towards climate change adaptation measures, which most effectively increase human well-being, while identifying potential unintended side-effects. Even though there are some limitations to assessing well-being and livelihoods on a global scale, a consistent measure of AHEAD is of utmost importance for future sustainability and climate impact analyses
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