Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models

This paper compares the predictive ability of the factor models of Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) using a "large" panel of US macroeconomic variables. We propose a nesting procedure of comparison that clarifies and partially overturns the results of similar exercises in the literature. As in Stock and Watson (2002), we find that effciency improvements due to the weighting of the idiosyncratic components do not lead to significant more accurate forecasts. In contrast to Boivin and Ng (2005), we show that the dynamic restrictions imposed by the procedure of Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) are not harmful for predictability. Our main conclusion is that for the dataset at hand the two methods have a similar performance and produce highly collinear forecasts. JEL Classification: C31, C52, C53Factor models, forecasting, Large Cross-Section

Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TV-VAR) for the US. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error, all the competing models: fixed coefficients VARs, Time-Varying ARs and the na¨ıve random walk model. These results are also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E37, E47forecasting, inflation, stochastic volatility, Time Varying Vector Autoregression

Cardiac Involvement in COVID-19 Patients: A Contemporary Review

Background: The widely variable clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV2 disease (COVID-19) range from asymptomatic infections to multiple organ failure and death. Among the organs affected is the heart. This does not only affect people who already have previous cardiovascular problems, but also healthy people. This is a reason not to overlook any symptoms or to perform targeted examinations, even if apparently unrelated to the heart, for quick recognition and timely therapy. Aim of the study: This review recapitulates the current state of knowledge on the potential mechanisms and manifestation of myocarditis in patients with COVID-19 infection. Methods: A web-based search of published data was performed for all relevant studies on patients diagnosed with a COVID-19-induced acute myocarditis, and a total of 50 reports were included. The analysis of the studies evaluated highlights a male predominance, with the average age of patients being 55 years. The most common presenting symptoms included fever, shortness of breath, cough, and chest pain. Among ECG changes, non-specific ST-segment and T-wave amplitude alterations and ventricular tachycardia episodes were reported. Finally, we wanted to use a general evaluation without distinguishing between various countries, taking into consideration only the peer or reviewer, regardless of the declared value of the journals that have been published. Results and critical findings: The most common presenting symptoms included fever, shortness of breath, cough, and chest pain. Among ECG changes, non-specific ST-segment and T-wave amplitude alterations and ventricular tachycardia episodes were reported. In most patients, elevated levels of cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers were measured. Left ventricular dysfunction and hypokinesis were commonly exhibited symptoms. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging (CMRI) confirmed the diagnosis of myocarditis with features of cardiac edema and cardiac injury. Nine patients underwent histopathological examination. Treatment with corticosteroids and immunoglobulins was the most applied strategy following the administration of antivirals. Discussion: Despite the exponentially growing knowledge on the management of COVID-19 infection, current available data on SARS-CoV2-correlated myocarditis are still limited, and several difficulties may be encountered in the differential diagnosis of acute myocarditis in the context of COVID-19 disease. Conclusions: While diagnostic criteria and evaluation strategies for myocarditis are well described, no guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of myocarditis in COVID-19 patients have yet been established. Therefore, further research is needed to advance the understanding of this disease process and define the most appropriate strategic approach in these patients

Genetic diversity and signature of divergence in the genome of grapevine clones of Southern Italy varieties

Sexual reproduction has contributed to a significant degree of variability in cultivated grapevine populations. However, the additional influence of spontaneous somatic mutations has played a pivotal role in shaping the diverse landscape of grapevine agrobiodiversity. These naturally occurring selections, termed 'clones,' represent a vast reservoir of potentially valuable traits and alleles that hold promise for enhancing grape quality and bolstering plant resilience against environmental and biotic challenges. Despite their potential, many of these clones remain largely untapped.In light of this context, this study aims to delve into the population structure, genetic diversity, and distinctive genetic loci within a collection of 138 clones derived from six Campanian and Apulian grapevine varieties, known for their desirable attributes in viticulture and winemaking. Employing two reduced representation sequencing methods, we extracted Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) markers. Population structure analysis and fixation index (FST) calculations were conducted both between populations and at individual loci. Notably, varieties originating from the same geographical region exhibited pronounced genetic similarity.The resulting SNP dataset facilitated the identification of approximately two hundred loci featuring divergent markers (FST ≥ 0.80) within annotated exons. Several of these loci exhibited associations with essential traits like phenotypic adaptability and environmental responsiveness, offering compelling opportunities for grapevine breeding initiatives. By shedding light on the genetic variability inherent in these treasured traditional grapevines, our study contributes to the broader understanding of their potential. Importantly, it underscores the urgency of preserving and characterizing these valuable genetic resources to safeguard their intra-varietal diversity and foster future advancements in grapevine cultivation

Framework for managing the COVID-19 infodemic : Methods and results of an online, crowdsourced WHO technical consultation

Background: An infodemic is an overabundance of information—some accurate and some not—that occurs during an epidemic. In a similar manner to an epidemic, it spreads between humans via digital and physical information systems. It makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it. Objective: A World Health Organization (WHO) technical consultation on responding to the infodemic related to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was held, entirely online, to crowdsource suggested actions for a framework for infodemic management. Methods: A group of policy makers, public health professionals, researchers, students, and other concerned stakeholders was joined by representatives of the media, social media platforms, various private sector organizations, and civil society to suggest and discuss actions for all parts of society, and multiple related professional and scientific disciplines, methods, and technologies. A total of 594 ideas for actions were crowdsourced online during the discussions and consolidated into suggestions for an infodemic management framework. Results: The analysis team distilled the suggestions into a set of 50 proposed actions for a framework for managing infodemics in health emergencies. The consultation revealed six policy implications to consider. First, interventions and messages must be based on science and evidence, and must reach citizens and enable them to make informed decisions on how to protect themselves and their communities in a health emergency. Second, knowledge should be translated into actionable behavior-change messages, presented in ways that are understood by and accessible to all individuals in all parts of all societies. Third, governments should reach out to key communities to ensure their concerns and information needs are understood, tailoring advice and messages to address the audiences they represent. Fourth, to strengthen the analysis and amplification of information impact, strategic partnerships should be formed across all sectors, including but not limited to the social media and technology sectors, academia, and civil society. Fifth, health authorities should ensure that these actions are informed by reliable information that helps them understand the circulating narratives and changes in the flow of information, questions, and misinformation in communities. Sixth, following experiences to date in responding to the COVID-19 infodemic and the lessons from other disease outbreaks, infodemic management approaches should be further developed to support preparedness and response, and to inform risk mitigation, and be enhanced through data science and sociobehavioral and other research. Conclusions: The first version of this framework proposes five action areas in which WHO Member States and actors within society can apply, according to their mandate, an infodemic management approach adapted to national contexts and practices. Responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and the related infodemic require swift, regular, systematic, and coordinated action from multiple sectors of society and government. It remains crucial that we promote trusted information and fight misinformation, thereby helping save lives.peer-reviewe

Prospective validation of the CLIP score: a new prognostic system for patient with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma

Prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on both residual liver function and tumor extension. The CLIP score includes Child-Pugh stage, tumor morphology and extension, serum alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and portal vein thrombosis. We externally validated the CLIP score and compared its discriminatory ability and predictive power with that of the Okuda staging system in 196 patients with cirrhosis and HCC prospectively enrolled in a randomized trial. No significant associations were found between the CLIP score and the age, sex, and pattern of viral infection. There was a strong correlation between the CLIP score and the Okuda stage, As of June 1999, 150 patients (76.5%) had died. Median survival time was 11 months, overall, and it was 36, 22, 9, 7, and 3 months for CLIP categories 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 to 6, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the CLIP score had additional explanatory power above that of the Okuda stage. This was true for both patients treated with locoregional therapy or not. A quantitative estimation of 2-year survival predictive power showed that the CLIP score explained 37% of survival variability, compared with 21% explained by Okuda stage. In conclusion, the CLIP score, compared with the Okuda staging system, gives more accurate prognostic information, is statistically more efficient, and has a greater survival predictive power. It could be useful in treatment planning by improving baseline prognostic evaluation of patients with RCC, and could be used in prospective therapeutic trials as a stratification variable, reducing the variability of results owing to patient selection