Benefits of simulating precipitation characteristics over Africa with a regionally-coupled atmosphere–ocean model

High-quality climate information at appropriate spatial and temporal resolution is essential to develop and provide tailored climate services for Africa. A common method to produce regional climate change data is to dynamically downscale global climate projections by means of regional climate models (RCMs). Deficiencies in the representation of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in earth system models (ESMs) and missing atmosphere–ocean interactions in RCMs contribute to the precipitation bias. This study analyzes the influence of the regional atmosphere–ocean coupling on simulated precipitation and its characteristics over Africa, and identifies those regions providing an added value using the regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model ROM. For the analysis, the MPI-ESM-LR historical simulation and emission scenario RCP8.5 were dynamically downscaled with ROM at a spatial resolution of 0.22° × 0.22° for the whole African continent, including the tropical Atlantic and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The results show that reduced SST warm biases in both oceans lead to more realistic simulated precipitation over most coastal regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and over southern Africa to varying degrees depending on the season. In particular, the annual precipitation cycles over the coastal regions of the Atlantic Ocean are closer to observations. Moreover, total precipitation and extreme precipitation indices in the coupled historical simulation are significantly lower and more realistic compared to observations over the majority of the analyzed sub-regions. Finally, atmosphere–ocean coupling can amplify or attenuate climate change signals from precipitation indices or even change their sign in a regional climate projection

Designing variable ocean model resolution based on the observed ocean variability

If unstructured meshes are refined to locally represent eddy dynamics in ocean circulation models, a practical question arises on how to vary the resolution and where to deploy the refinement. We propose to use the observed sea surface height variability as the refinement criterion. We explore the utility of this method (i) in a suite of idealized experiments simulating a wind-driven double gyre flow in a stratified circular basin and (ii) in simulations of global ocean circulation performed with FESOM. Two practical approaches of mesh refinement are compared. In the first approach the uniform refinement is confined within the areas where the observed variability exceeds a given threshold. In the second one the refinement varies linearly following the observed variability. The resolution is fixed in time. For the double gyre case it is shown that the variability obtained in a high-resolution reference run can be well captured on variable-resolution meshes if they are refined where the variability is high and additionally upstream the jet separation point. The second approach of mesh refinement proves to be more beneficial in terms of improvement downstream the midlatitude jet. Similarly, in global ocean simulations the mesh refinement based on the observed variability helps the model to simulate high variability at correct locations. The refinement also leads to a reduced bias in the upper-ocean temperatur

Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important drivers of hazardous precipitation levels and are often associated with intense floods. So far, the response of ARs to climate change in Europe has been investigated using global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, the spatial resolution of those models (1–3∘) is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22∘ resolution, we downscaled an ensemble consisting of 1 ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis data hindcast simulation, 9 global historical, and 24 climate scenario simulations following greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The performance of the climate model to simulate AR frequencies and AR-induced precipitation was tested against ERAI. Overall, we find a good agreement between the downscaled CMIP5 historical simulations and ERAI. However, the downscaled simulations better represented small-scale spatial characteristics. This was most evident over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula, where the AR-induced precipitation pattern clearly reflected prominent east–west topographical elements, resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe, the models simulated a smaller propagation distance of ARs toward eastern Europe than obtained using the ERAI data. Our models showed that ARs in a future warmer climate will be more frequent and more intense, especially in the higher-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). However, assuming low emissions (RCP2.6), the related changes can be mostly mitigated. According to the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, AR-induced precipitation will increase by 20 %–40 % in western central Europe, whereas mean precipitation rates increase by a maximum of only 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula, AR-induced precipitation will slightly decrease (∼6 %) but the decrease in the mean rate will be larger (∼15 %). These changes will lead to an overall increased fractional contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation, with the greatest impact over the Iberian Peninsula (15 %–30 %) and western France (∼15 %). Likewise, the fractional share of yearly maximum precipitation attributable to ARs will increase over the Iberian Peninsula, the UK, and western France. Over Norway, average AR precipitation rates will decline by −5 % to −30 %, most likely due to dynamic changes, with ARs originating from latitudes > 60∘ N decreasing by up to 20 % and those originating south of 45∘ N increasing. This suggests that ARs over Norway will follow longer routes over the continent, such that additional moisture uptake will be impeded. By contrast, ARs from >60∘ N will take up moisture from the North Atlantic before making landfall over Norway. The found changes in the local AR pathway are probably driven by larger-scale circulation changes such as a change in dominating weather regimes and/or changes in the winter storm track over the North Atlantic

Impact of air–sea coupling on the simulation of Indian summer monsoon using a high-resolution Regional Earth System Model over CORDEX-SA

A new high-resolution Regional Earth System Model, namely ROM, has been implemented over CORDEX-SA towards examining the impact of air–sea coupling on the Indian summer monsoon characteristics. ROM's simulated mean ISM rainfall and associated dynamical and thermodynamical processes, including the representation of northward and eastward propagating convention bands, are closer to observation than its standalone atmospheric model component (REMO), highlighting the advantage of air–sea coupling. However, the value addition of air–sea coupling varies spatially with more significant improvements over regions with large biases. Bay of Bengal and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are the most prominent region where the highest added value is observed with a significant reduction up to 50–500% precipitation bias. Most of the changes in precipitation over the ocean are associated with convective precipitation (CP) due to the suppression of convective activity caused by the negative feedback due to the inclusion of air–sea coupling. However, CP and large-scale precipitation (LP) improvements show east–west asymmetry over the Indian land region. The substantial LP bias reduction is noticed over the wet bias region of western central India due to its suppression, while enhanced CP over eastern central India contributed to the reduction of dry bias. An insignificant change is noticed over Tibetan Plateau, northern India, and Indo Gangetic plains. The weakening of moisture-laden low-level Somalia Jets causes the diminishing of moisture supply from the Arabian Sea (AS) towards Indian land regions resulting in suppressed precipitation, reducing wet bias, especially over western central India. The anomalous high kinetic energy over AS, wind shear, and tropospheric temperature gradient in REMO compared to observation is substantially reduced in the ROM, facilitating the favourable condition for suppressing moisture feeding and hence the wet bias over west-central India in ROM. The warmer midlatitude in ROM than REMO over eastern central India strengthens the convection, enhancing precipitation results in reducing the dry bias. Despite substantially improved ROM’performance, it still exhibits some systematic biases (wet/dry) partially associated with the persistent warm/cold SST bias and land–atmosphere interaction

Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

In this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean

Climate change signal in the ocean circulation of the Tyrrhenian Sea

The Tyrrhenian Sea plays an important role in the winter deep water formation in the northwestern Mediterranean through the water that enters the Ligurian Sea via the Corsica Channel. Therefore, the study of the impact of the changes on the future climate on the Tyrrhenian circulation and its consequences represents an important issue. Furthermore, the seasonally dependent Tyrrhenian circulation, which is rich in dynamical mesoscale structures, is dominated by the interplay of local climate and the basin-wide Mediterranean circulation via the water transport across its major straits, and an adequate representation of its features represents an important modeling challenge. In this work we examine with a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model the changes in the Tyrrhenian circulation by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, their driving mechanisms, and their possible impact on winter convection in the NW Mediterranean. Our model successfully reproduces the main features of the Mediterranean Sea and Tyrrhenian Basin present-day circulation. We find that toward the end of the century the winter cyclonic along-slope stream around the Tyrrhenian Basin becomes weaker. This weakening increases the wind work transferred to the mesoscale structures, which become more intense than at present in winter and summer. We also find that, in the future, the northward water transport across the Corsica Channel towards the Liguro-Provençal basin becomes smaller than today. Also, water that flows through this channel presents a stronger stratification because of a generalized warming with a freshening of upper and a saltening of intermediate waters. Both factors may contribute to the interruption of deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions by the end of the century

On the impact of atmospheric vs oceanic resolutions on the representation of the sea surface temperature in the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Despite the efforts of the modelling community to improve the representation of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic, warm biases still persist. In this work we use four different configurations of the fully-coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM) which allow us to gain physics-based insight into the role of the oceanic and atmospheric resolutions of the model in the regional distribution of the SST. Our results show that a sole refinement of the oceanic resolution reduces warm biases further than a single increase of the atmospheric component. An increased oceanic resolution is required (i) to simulate properly the Agulhas Current and its associated rings; (ii) to reinforce the northward-flowing Benguela Current and (iii) to intensify coastal upwelling. The best results are obtained when both resolutions are refined. However, even in that case, warm biases persist, reflecting that some processes and feedbacks are still not optimally resolved. Our results indicate that overheating is not due to insufficient upwelling, but rather due to upwelling of waters which are warmer than observations as a result of an erroneous representation of the vertical distribution of temperature. Errors in the representation of the vertical temperature profile are the consequence of a warm bias in the simulated climate state

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant “Hanhikivi-1” on the local thermal regime

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant “Hanhikivi-1” upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

Demonstrating the asymmetry of the Indian Ocean Dipole response in regional earth system model of CORDEX-SA

An accurate representation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial for the reliable projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, making it necessary to improve the understanding of the response of the IOD in the warming climate. For the first time, a high-resolution regional earth system model (RESM) over the CORDEX-SA domain is used to investigate the IOD characteristics. The model performance is evaluated in simulating the IOD and associated mechanism. RESM shows a good resemblance in simulating IOD phases (positive and negative). However, the systematic discrepancy is observed in magnitude. Additionally, RESM well represented the positive IOD's inter-event variability. For example, the stronger event dominated by significant cold anomalies over Sumatra with enhanced westward-extended while a moderate event shows weak cooling confined to the region of Sumatra. Additionally, RESM shows potential to distinguish the ENSO and non-ENSO years with more remarkable skill in representing the spatial pattern of SST over IOD region during non-ESNO years than ENSO years. The RESM realistically simulated the IOD amplitude with greater skill than CMIP5/6 models reported in the earlier studies, indicating reliability towards the projection of the Indian summer monsoon. The weaker IOD-ENSO relationship is caused by producing the more significant number of IOD during non-ENSO years. Despite this reliable fidelity, IOD's slightly earlier peak is driven by the early establishment of low-level equatorial easterly wind. This study provided valuable insight into the IOD's different phases, responsible forcings, and limitations of the RESM in accounting for the role of internal climate variability that can be useful for further improvement in the model physics

Surface and Intermediate Water Changes Triggering the Future Collapse of Deep Water Formation in the North Western Mediterranean

Deep water formation (DWF) in the North Western Mediterranean (NWMed) is a key feature of Mediterranean overturning circulation. DWF changes under global warming may have an impact on the Mediterranean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystem. Here we analyze the deep convection in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) in a changing climate using a regional climate system model with a horizontal resolution high enough to represent DWF. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario the NWMed DWF collapses by 2040–2050, leading to a 92% shoaling in the winter mixed layer by the end of the century. The collapse is related to a strengthening of the vertical stratification in the GoL caused by changes in properties of Modified Atlantic Water and Levantine Intermediate Water, being their relative contribution to the increase of the stratification 57.8% and 42.2%, respectively. The stratification changes also alter the Mediterranean overturning circulation and the exchange with the Atlantic