Dual Sourcing and Smoothing under Non-Stationary Demand Time Series: Re-shoring with SpeedFactories

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from INFORMS via the DOI in this recordWe investigate near-shoring a small part of the global production to local SpeedFactories that serve only the variable demand. The short lead time of the responsive SpeedFactory reduces the risk of making large volumes in advance, yet it does not involve a complete re-shoring of demand. Using a break-even analysis we investigate the lead time, demand, and cost characteristics that make dual sourcing with a SpeedFactory desirable compared to complete off-shoring. Our analysis employs a linear generalization of the celebrated order-up-to inventory policy to settings where capacity costs exist. The policy allows for order smoothing to reduce capacity costs and performs well relative to the (unknown) optimal policy. We highlight the significant impact of auto-correlated and non-stationary demand series, which are prevalent in practice yet challenging to analyze, on the economic benefit of re-shoring. Methodologically, we adopt a linear policy and normally distributed demand and use Z−transforms to present exact analyses

Regional variations in discrete collagen fibre mechanics within intact intervertebral disc resolved using synchrotron computed tomography and digital volume correlation

Many soft tissues, such as the intervertebral disc (IVD), have a hierarchical fibrous composite structure which suffers from regional damage. We hypothesise that these tissue regions have distinct, inherent fibre structure and structural response upon loading. Here we used synchrotron computed tomography (sCT) to resolve collagen fibre bundles (∼5μm width) in 3D throughout an intact native rat lumbar IVD under increasing compressive load. Using intact samples meant that tissue boundaries (such as endplate-disc or nucleus-annulus) and residual strain were preserved; this is vital for characterising both the inherent structure and structural changes upon loading in tissue regions functioning in a near-native environment. Nano-scale displacement measurements along >10,000 individual fibres were tracked, and fibre orientation, curvature and strain changes were compared between the posterior-lateral region and the anterior region. These methods can be widely applied to other soft tissues, to identify fibre structures which cause tissue regions to be more susceptible to injury and degeneration. Our results demonstrate for the first time that highly-localised changes in fibre orientation, curvature and strain indicate differences in regional strain transfer and mechanical function (e.g. tissue compliance). This included decreased fibre reorientation at higher loads, specific tissue morphology which reduced capacity for flexibility and high strain at the disc-endplate boundary

Synchrotron tomography of intervertebral disc deformation quantified by digital volume correlation reveals microstructural influence on strain patterns

The intervertebral disc (IVD) has a complex and multiscale extracellular matrix structure which provides unique mechanical properties to withstand physiological loading. Low back pain has been linked to degeneration of the disc but reparative treatments are not currently available. Characterising the disc’s 3D microstructure and its response in a physiologically relevant loading environment is required to improve understanding of degeneration and to develop new reparative treatments. In this study, techniques for imaging the native IVD, measuring internal deformation and mapping volumetric strain were applied to an in situ compressed ex vivo rat lumbar spine segment. Synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography (synchrotron CT) was used to resolve IVD structures at microscale resolution. These image data enabled 3D quantification of collagen bundle orientation and measurement of local displacement in the annulus fibrosus between sequential scans using digital volume correlation (DVC). The volumetric strain mapped from synchrotron CT provided a detailed insight into the micromechanics of native IVD tissue. The DVC findings showed that there was no slipping at lamella boundaries, and local strain patterns were of a similar distribution to the previously reported elastic network with some heterogeneous areas and maximum strain direction aligned with bundle orientation, suggesting bundle stretching and sliding. This method has the potential to bridge the gap between measures of macro-mechanical properties and the local 3D micro-mechanical environment experienced by cells. This is the first evaluation of strain at the micro scale level in the intact IVD and provides a quantitative framework for future IVD degeneration mechanics studies and testing of tissue engineered IVD replacements

Properties of Galaxies in and around Voids

Two surveys for intrinsically faint galaxies towards nearby voids have been conducted at the MPI f\"ur Astronomie, Heidelberg. One selected targets from a new diameter limited ($\Phi \ge 5''$) catalog with morphological criteria while the other used digitized objective prism Schmidt plates to select mainly HII dwarf galaxies. For some 450 galaxies, redshifts and other optical data were obtained. We studied the spatial distribution of the sample objects, their luminosity function, and their intrinsic properties. Most of the galaxies belong to already well known sheets and filaments. But we found about a dozen highly isolated galaxies in each sample (nearest neighborhood distance $\ge 3 h_{75}^{-1} Mpc$). These tend to populate additional structures and are not distributed homogeneously throughout the voids. As our results on 'void galaxies' still suffer from small sample statistics, I also tried to combine similar existing surveys of nearby voids to get further hints on the larger structure and on the luminosity function of the isolated galaxies. No differences in the luminosity function of sheet and void galaxies could be found. The optical and infrared properties of both samples are in the normal range for samples dominated by late-type dwarfs. Follow-up HI studies show that the isolated dwarfs in both samples have unusual high amount of neutral gas for a given luminosity.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, latex, to appear in the proceedings of the 'Ringberg workshop on Large Scale Structure', hold Sep. 23-28, 199

Caries risk assessment in school children using a reduced Cariogram model without saliva tests

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To investigate the caries predictive ability of a reduced Cariogram model without salivary tests in schoolchildren.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study group consisted of 392 school children, 10-11 years of age, who volunteered after informed consent. A caries risk assessment was made at baseline with aid of the computer-based Cariogram model and expressed as "the chance of avoiding caries" and the children were divided into five risk groups. The caries increment (ΔDMFS) was extracted from the dental records and bitewing radiographs after 2 years. The reduced Cariogram was processed by omitting the variables "salivary mutans streptococci", "secretion rate" and "buffer capacity" one by one and finally all three. Differences between the total and reduced models were expressed as area under the ROC-curve.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The baseline caries prevalence in the study population was 40% (mean DMFS 0.87 ± 1.35) and the mean 2-year caries increment was 0.51 ± 1.06. Both Cariogram models displayed a statistically relationship with caries development (p < 0.05); more caries was found among those assessed with high risk compared to those with low risk. The combined sensitivity and specificity decreased after exclusion of the salivary tests and a statistically significant reduction of the area under the ROC-curve was displayed compared with the total Cariogram (p < 0.05). Among the salivary variables, omission of the mutans streptococci enumeration impaired the predictive ability the most.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The accuracy of caries prediction in school children was significantly impaired when the Cariogram model was applied without enumeration of salivary tests.</p

SUPERNOVA REMNANTS AND THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM OF M83: IMAGING AND PHOTOMETRY WITH THE WIDE FIELD CAMERA 3 ON THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE

We present Wide Field Camera 3 images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope within a single field in the southern grand design star-forming galaxy M83. Based on their size, morphology, and photometry in continuum-subtracted Hα, [S II], Hβ, [O III], and [O II] filters, we have identified 60 supernova remnant (SNR) candidates, as well as a handful of young ejecta-dominated candidates. A catalog of these remnants, their sizes and, where possible, their Hα fluxes are given. Radiative ages and pre-shock densities are derived from those SNRs that have good photometry. The ages lie in the range 2.62 \u3c log (τrad/yr) \u3c 5.0, and the pre-shock densities at the blast wave range over 0.56 \u3c n 0/cm-3 \u3c 1680. Two populations of SNRs have been discovered. These divide into a nuclear and spiral arm group and an inter-arm population. We infer an arm to inter-arm density contrast of 4. The surface flux in diffuse X-rays is correlated with the inferred pre-shock density, indicating that the warm interstellar medium (ISM) is pressurized by the hot X-ray plasma. We also find that the ISM in the nuclear region of M83 is characterized by a very high porosity and pressure, and infer an SNR rate of 1 per 70-150 yr for the nuclear (R \u3c 300 pc) region. On the basis of the number of SNRs detected and their radiative ages, we infer that the lower mass of Type II SNe in M83 is M min = 16+7 –5 M . Finally, we give evidence for the likely detection of the remnant of the historical supernova, SN1968L

Clues from nearby galaxies to a better theory of cosmic evolution

The great advances in the network of cosmological tests show that the relativistic Big Bang theory is a good description of our expanding universe. But the properties of nearby galaxies that can be observed in greatest detail suggest a still better theory would more rapidly gather matter into galaxies and groups of galaxies. This happens in theoretical ideas now under discussion.Comment: published in Natur

The distribution of burden of dental caries in schoolchildren: a critique of the high-risk caries prevention strategy for populations

BACKGROUND: The 'high-risk approach' is a commonly adopted strategy recommended for the prevention of dental caries in populations. The scientific basis for the strategy has been questioned. The objective of this study is to assess the contribution that children identified at 'high-risk' made towards the total of new caries lesions over a 4-year period, by analysing the distribution of new lesions per 100 children. METHODS: Data are from the National Preventive Dentistry Demonstration Programme (NPDDP) in the United States. The analyses identified the distribution of new carious lesions over a 4-year period in four groups of 7 year-old children who received differing preventive regimes. RESULTS: The majority of new lesions occurred in those children classified at lowest caries risk at baseline. Irrespective of the preventive regime adopted and the initial caries levels, children classified as 'highest risk' contributed less than 6% of the total number of new lesions developing over 4 years. CONCLUSION: These findings challenge the basis for the adoption of a high-risk strategy

Improved ability of biological and previous caries multimarkers to predict caries disease as revealed by multivariate PLS modelling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dental caries is a chronic disease with plaque bacteria, diet and saliva modifying disease activity. Here we have used the PLS method to evaluate a multiplicity of such biological variables (n = 88) for ability to predict caries in a cross-sectional (baseline caries) and prospective (2-year caries development) setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Multivariate PLS modelling was used to associate the many biological variables with caries recorded in thirty 14-year-old children by measuring the numbers of incipient and manifest caries lesions at all surfaces.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A wide but shallow gliding scale of one fifth caries promoting or protecting, and four fifths non-influential, variables occurred. The influential markers behaved in the order of plaque bacteria > diet > saliva, with previously known plaque bacteria/diet markers and a set of new protective diet markers. A differential variable patterning appeared for new versus progressing lesions. The influential biological multimarkers (n = 18) predicted baseline caries better (ROC area 0.96) than five markers (0.92) and a single lactobacilli marker (0.7) with sensitivity/specificity of 1.87, 1.78 and 1.13 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick, respectively. Moreover, biological multimarkers (n = 18) explained 2-year caries increment slightly better than reported before but predicted it poorly (ROC area 0.76). By contrast, multimarkers based on previous caries predicted alone (ROC area 0.88), or together with biological multimarkers (0.94), increment well with a sensitivity/specificity of 1.74 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Multimarkers behave better than single-to-five markers but future multimarker strategies will require systematic searches for improved saliva and plaque bacteria markers.</p