Whatever its outcome, the Brexit referendum is likely to strengthen anti-EU rhetoric in Italy

What impact is the UK’s EU referendum likely to have on Italian politics? Bruno Marino and Nicola Martocchia Diodati see few chances for the referendum to reinforce the position of pro-EU parties in Italy, irrespective of its outcome. With Euroscepticism on the rise in Italy, even a win for the Remain campaign could bolster stances critical of further European integration. They argue that the only possible outcome that could benefit the pro-EU camp is one through which the values of unity and solidarity are highlighted

Let's speak more? How the ECB responds to public contestation

Although the post-crisis politicisation of the ECB is widely acknowledged, little empirical evidence exists about how this important non-majoritarian institution has responded to public contestation. This article starts filling this gap by investigating whether and how public opinion affects ECB communication. Based on automated text analysis of the speeches delivered by Executive Board members (2001\u20132017), the article shows that negative public opinion is associated with an expansion of the scope of ECB communication and a reduction in the salience attributed to monetary policy issues. These results challenge the view according to which the ECB conceives of its sources of legitimation based almost exclusive on the achievement of its mandate. In particular, our findings suggest that increased politicisation leads the ECB to reassess the sources of its legitimation strategy from a strategy based on output achievement towards one based on participation to broader policy debates

Changing patterns of ministerial circulation: the Italian case in a long-term perspective

The circulation of the ruling class has been a relevant concern in political analysis, but investigation of the determinants of a successful career still remains relatively neglected. This article aims at filling this interpretative gap by focusing on long-term transformations of ministerial careers in Italy. By using an original dataset on ministerial careers between 1976 and 2015, the article explains the patterns of intra-governmental career by analysing the selection for higher government offices. A first descriptive analysis leads to the formulation of a working proposition based on the increasing complexity of the patterns of governmental careers. In this context, the new role of the Prime Minister as a principal in the process of ministerial selection and other procedural constraints are discussed. An ordinal logistic regression analysis confirms the validity of such a general proposition, highlighting the relevance of personalisation and policy expertise in the evolution of intra-governmental careers

Masters of their fate? Explaining MPs\u2019 re-candidacy in the long run: The case of Italy (1987\u20132013)

Why are certain Members of Parliament (MPs) more likely to get re-candidacy for national legislative elections, therefore having the possibility to continue their career? This article answers this question by comparing political elites' long-debated explanations with more legislative behaviour-related factors. By focusing on more than 25 years of the Italian Lower House's history, we have built a novel dataset on the legislative behaviour and career patterns of more than 3500 Italian MPs. A multilevel logistic regression analysis shows that, with the exception of party switching, legislative behaviour does not seem to exert a significant impact on MPs' re-candidacy. On the contrary, the career status of parliamentarians, i.e., their parliamentary position or their ministerial historical record, strongly influences their chances of obtaining re-candidacy

Puglia: cronaca di una vittoria annunciata?

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Replication Data for: What difference does it makes? Explaining the voting behaviour of Partito Democratico's electorate and selectorate in 2013

This article analyses the differences in voting behaviour of the selectorate and electorate of the Italian Partito Democratico in 2013, particularly focusing on the role played by leadership, ideology and media in affecting voting decisions. We study the different motivations underlying the decision to vote for the Partito Democratico (PD) in the 2013 Italian general election or for each one of the three candidates to party leadership in the 2013 PD leadership selection race. The empirical analysis uses 2013 Italian National Election Study and 2013 Candidate & Leader Selection data. Results of the analysis show that leadership evaluation has a stronger influence on the selectorate than on the electorate and that the perceived distance between voters and the party on the left-right continuum has a stronger impact on the electorate than on the selectorate. Moreover, the analysis underlines that media are substantially not a relevant factor explaining voting behaviour of PD’s electorate and selectorate. These findings confirm the relevancy of leadership evaluation in intra-party competitions and open a new perspective to study leader selection races

Candidate selection, personalization of politics, and political careers: Insights from Italy

none3no-mixedMarino, Bruno; Martocchia Diodati, Nicola; Verzichelli, LucaMarino, Bruno; Martocchia Diodati, Nicola; Verzichelli, Luc

Comunali 2016, l’analisi dell’offerta politica nei comuni capoluogo

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The personalization of party politics in Western Europe (1985–2016): evidence from an expert survey

The personalization of politics has been extensively studied from different angles and in different national contexts. Nonetheless, an easily comparable and longitudinal study of the personalization of politics at both the country and the party levels is still missing. In this article, we fill this gap by presenting data from an expert survey on the personalization of politics for around 110 parties and a series of Western European countries from the mid-1980s to the mid-2010s. The dimensions analyzed concern the impact of the personalization of politics in general elections, and also party leaders' room for maneuver in candidate selection, the definition of the party's policy-making agenda, and party leaders\u2019 intra-party control. Different reliability tests confirm the goodness of the data collected. At the same time, first descriptive analyses show that there has not been a homogenous diffusion of this phenomenon in Western Europe, and diverging personalization trends are present for different groups of countries or different dimensions of this phenomenon

Members of the Chamber of Deputies

none3nonessunomixedMarino, Bruno; Martocchia Diodati, Nicola; Verzichelli, LucaMarino, Bruno; Martocchia Diodati, Nicola; Verzichelli, Luc