RMCMC: A System for Updating Bayesian Models

A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted samples stored in a database. The stored samples are maintained such that the accuracy of the estimates and quality of the samples is satisfactory. This maintenance involves varying the number of samples in the database and updating their weights. New samples are generated, when required, by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The system is demonstrated using a football league model that is used to predict the end of season table. Correctness of the estimates and their accuracy is shown in a simulation using a linear Gaussian model

The chopthin algorithm for resampling

Resampling is a standard step in particle filters and more generally sequential Monte Carlo methods. We present an algorithm, called chopthin, for resampling weighted particles. In contrast to standard resampling methods the algorithm does not produce a set of equally weighted particles; instead it merely enforces an upper bound on the ratio between the weights. Simulation studies show that the chopthin algorithm consistently outperforms standard resampling methods. The algorithms chops up particles with large weight and thins out particles with low weight, hence its name. It implicitly guarantees a lower bound on the effective sample size. The algorithm can be implemented efficiently, making it practically useful. We show that the expected computational effort is linear in the number of particles. Implementations for C++, R (on CRAN), Python and Matlab are available.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Breaching and Entering: When Data Scraping Should Be a Federal Computer Hacking Crime

The Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) is a federal statute designed to combat computer hacking. The Act proscribes accessing data without authorization. Federal circuits have interpreted “authorization” both broadly and narrowly, resulting in a circuit split. Whereas the First, Fifth, and Eleventh Circuits have held that misuse of computer access can constitute hacking under the CFAA, the Fourth and Ninth Circuits have held that scrapers must circumvent a code or technical barrier in order to satisfy the CFAA’s mens rea requirement. This note focuses on the conduct of data scrapers. Scrapers are computer programs that aggregate data from various websites in order to present the data to users in easily readable formats. Because scrapers can be both beneficial and harmful to the digital ecosystem, this note proposes that the term “authorization” should be construed narrowly in the context of scraping. As such, CFAA liability should only be triggered when scrapers are used to circumvent code barriers and harm the sources from which they collect data. Applying this code-based rule to authorization will align with the statute’s original purpose to combat computer fraud and will not unnecessarily expose beneficial scraper users to federal criminal liability

Effectiveness of Bracing in High Rise Structure under Response Spectrum Analysis

Volume 7 Issue 7 (July 201

Hygrothermal performance of building envelopes in the tropics under operative conditions : condensation and mould growth risk appraisal

Poor indoor hygrothermal performance increases the risk of indoor moisture problems and deterioration due to mould growth, corrosion and damage to archival materials. Hence, proper control of indoor thermohygric intensity abates indoor moisture and its associated problems. This paper presents the results of envelopes hygrothermal performance assessments in a hot and humid climate building with varying operational profile between adjacent spaces. The case-studied building runs on 24hrs cooling mode in one part against natural and/or mechanical supply-exhaust fan means on the other. In-situ experiments were combined with hygrothermal analytical methods to assess the envelope thermal quality together with the operative conditions against condensation and mould growth risks. The results show that the building is overcooled leading to poor envelope hygrothermal performance with associated condensation and mould growth problems on non-airconditioned sides of the envelopes

Finite element simulation of hip joint replacement under static and dynamic loading

The objective of this work is to develop methods for the structural analysis of orthopaedic implants. The central argument is that, if stress distributions are interpreted in the context of failure models of the component materials, significant advantages can be made in our ability to design these devices. The artificial hip joint is used throughout as an example. The finite element method was used as a structural analysis tool and its pplicability was discussed. Validity and accuracy were assessed and results were ompared with previous experimental and finite element studies. By comparing tress distributions with failure criteria for prosthesis and cement, the suitability of roposed design changes were assessed and guidelines for materials selection were resented. Prediction of bone stresses were also given for different prosthesis designs n the region of the artificial hip joint where bone adaption contributes to failure. hereafter the focus was on utilizing a new technique to develop a new hip prosthesis model. This study was divided into two parts according to the loading type. In this regard the stress field in the artificial hip components (prostheses, cement mantle, and bone) is analysed statically and dynamically to assess the implant longevity. In this static analysis all the simulations were conducted by assuming the peak loads during the normal gait at a particular time (static loads). The aim was to study the effects of a set of variables within which an optimal prosthesis design can be made by means of finite element analysis to qualify and quantify the stresses and the strains in natural and treated human femur for different cases of implantation. Until now, models developed to predict stresses in total hip replacements have been generally poorly validated. This could be because all the pre-clinical simulations were performed statically, that is by selecting the greatest load at a particular time of the activity cycle. The second part of the study was aimed to take into consideration, in designing total hip replacement, another factor belongs to the patient activity (stamping, jumping, walking, etc) and the effect of impact over the prosthesis head during these activity into the prosthesis performance. This study considered the prosthesis hip deformation with time, dynamic loads study. The elimination of impact cracking was considered by studying the effect of using “damper” trapped between the grooved prosthesis collar and the bone. Material selection of the total hip replacements was also investigated under the dynamic loading. The approaches of prosthesis fixation have been studied, too. This study was conducted by onstructing three-dimensional finite element model for a femur implanted with a cemented prosthesis with a representative physiological loading condition by using he LS-DYNA3D software

Simplified Tools for Performance-Based Design of Reinforced Concrete Frames Exposed to Fire

Fire safety of Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings is an important design aspect that ensures structural integrity during fire events. As new codes are moving towards performance based design, practitioners are in need of rational design tools to assess the strength and serviceability of individual RC elements and the structure as a whole during fire. This thesis provides such tools for RC frames. A previously developed sectional analysis method is extended to cover RC beams subjected to fire from three sides. An extensive parametric study is conducted to evaluate the equivalent stress-block parameters at elevated temperatures. A novel method to track the behavior of continuous RC beams during standard fire exposure is proposed and validated. It is based on separating the effects of thermal deformations and vertical loads. The effective flexural stiffness and the thermal deformations of fire exposed RC beams are estimated based on a comprehensive parametric study. A simple method to construct the interaction diagram of RC column exposed to fire is developed and validated. An existing simplified heat transfer method is extended to predict the average temperature distribution. A number of reasonable approximations are assumed to allow reaching closed form solution for the concrete compressive forces that correspond to a specific strain distribution. A practical approach to track the fire performance of RC frames during fire exposure is proposed and validated. The effective flexural and axial stiffnesses as well as unrestrained thermal deformations of heated sections are used to predict the behavior of fire exposed RC structure

Plateau Proposal Distributions for Adaptive Component-wise Multiple-Try Metropolis

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of MCMC methods exist for generating samples from arbitrary, possibly complex, target distributions. The performance of an MCMC method is predominately governed by the choice of the so-called proposal distribution used. In this paper, we introduce a new type of proposal distribution for the use in MCMC methods that operates component-wise and with multiple trials per iteration. Specifically, the novel class of proposal distributions, called Plateau distributions, do not overlap, thus ensuring that the multiple trials are drawn from different regions of the state space. Furthermore, the Plateau proposal distributions allow for a bespoke adaptation procedure that lends itself to a Markov chain with efficient problem dependent state space exploration and improved burn-in properties. Simulation studies show that our novel MCMC algorithm outperforms competitors when sampling from distributions with a complex shape, highly correlated components or multiple modes.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figure