Avian Occupancy Dynamics and Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) Environmental Correlates on a Central Appalachian Elevation Gradient in West Virginia

Mountains are important areas for avian diversity and conservation since they have steep elevational and environmental gradients. In the central Appalachian Mountains, several songbird species have trailing edge populations that are restricted to high elevations. Climate change and other factors can cause species distributions to change, which is of particular concern for birds in restricted trailing edge populations. Additionally, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) breeds throughout the Appalachian Mountains and is species of conservation concern due to range-wide population declines. For this project, I used avian point count data from the central Appalachian Mountains to: (1) evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of a group of songbirds, and (2) assess fine-scale environmental correlates of the Canada Warbler. To assess avian dynamics, I used a 26-year (1993-2018) historic dataset of 5922 point count surveys conducted in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia to model colonization and persistence rates for 16 songbird species in a Bayesian framework. Colonization and persistence rates were modeled as a function of year, elevation, and harvest, with interactive effects between year and elevation. I then derived equilibrium occupancy for each species to evaluate the change in occupancy over the 26-year period and across the elevation gradient. Five species expanded upwards, 3 species expanded downwards, 1 species contracted downwards, 1 species shifted downwards, and 6 species had no directional change in equilibrium occupancy. None of the 16 species contracted upwards and there was little evidence of climate-induced elevational movement. Varying responses along the elevation gradient are likely due to a combination of several factors, including changing forest conditions and regional population trends. Spruce restoration and regeneration of northern hardwood and spruce forests are likely driving the upward and downward expansions observed in 5 species, which suggests that climate-induced movements may be alleviated by more direct changes to forest conditions. In chapter 2, I evaluate Canada Warbler space use and environmental correlates using 840 point count surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018. I assessed Canada Warbler occupancy in a multi-species occupancy modelling framework that accounted for potential interactions between Black-throated Blue Warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) and Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus). I found that Canada Warblers were more likely to occur in mid-elevations, in areas with high Rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum) stem density, closer to riparian areas, and in northern hardwood forests. Canada Warblers were also positively associated with Black-throated Blue Warblers. Conservation actions for Canada Warblers in its southern breeding distribution should span across a range of elevations in northern hardwood forests. Additionally, protection of riparian areas, especially those with dense Rhododendron thickets, will likely benefit Canada Warblers in their Appalachian distribution

Assessment of strain measurement techniques to characterise mechanical properties of structural steel

Strain measurement is important in mechanical testing. A wide variety of techniques exists for measuring strain in the tensile test; namely the strain gauge, extensometer, stress and strain determined by machine crosshead motion, Geometric Moire technique, optical strain measurement techniques and others. Each technique has its own advantages and disadvantages. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively compare the strain measurement techniques. To carry out the tensile test experiments for S 235, sixty samples were cut from the web of the I-profile in longitudinal and transverse directions in four different dimensions. The geometry of samples are analysed by 3D scanner and vernier caliper. In addition, the strain values were determined by using strain gauge, extensometer and machine crosshead motion. Three techniques of strain measurement are compared in quantitative manner based on the calculation of mechanical properties (modulus of elasticity, yield strength, tensile strength, percentage elongation at maximum force) of structural steel. A statistical information was used for evaluating the results. It is seen that the extensometer and strain gauge provided reliable data, however the extensometer offers several advantages over the strain gauge and crosshead motion for testing structural steel in tension. Furthermore, estimation of measurement uncertainty is presented for the basic material parameters extracted through strain measurement

The effects of polymers on microstructure and durability of polymer-modified mortars (PCC)

Die Einflüsse polymerer Zusätze auf die Ausbildung der Mikrostruktur im frühen Stadium der Erhärtung und auf die Eigenschaften, insbesondere die Dauerhaftigkeit der modifizierten Mörtel wurden erforscht. Es sollte die Frage beantwortet werden, ob durch die Modifizierung die Dauerhaftigkeit von Mörteln mehr verbessert werden kann, als dies durch übliche betontechnologische Maßnahmen möglich ist. Die Ausbildung der Mikrostruktur in den ersten 24 Stunden der Erhärtung wurde mit verschiedenen Methoden, u.a. mittels ESEM, untersucht. Es wurden Modellvorstellungen zur Ausbildung der organischen Matrix und der anorganischen Matrix entwickelt: Interaktionen sind Adsorptionsreaktionen, Agglomerationen und Behinderung der Hydratation. Es wurden Frisch- und Festmörteluntersuchungen beschrieben und interpretiert. Unterschiedliche Dauerhaftigkeitsuntersuchungen wurden durchgeführt und bewertet. Die Mikrostruktur der Festmörtel wurde hinsichtlich ihres Einflusses auf die Dauerhaftigkeit betrachtet.The effects of polymeric additives on the formation of the microstructure at an early stage of hardening and on the properties, especially the durabiliy of modified mortars, were investigated. The question was whether the durability of mortars may be increased to a larger extent by the modification or by the usual measures taken in concrete technology. The formation of the microstructure within the first 24 hours of hardening was investigated by various methods, e.g. by ESEM (environmental scanning electron microscope). Models of the formation of the organic and anorganic matrix were developed: interactions are adsorbtion reactions, agglomerations, and impediments to hydration. Tests on fresh and hardened mortar are described and interpreted. Several durability tests were conducted and evaluated. The microstructure of the hardened mortars was studied with regard to its influence on the durability

Steroids and college students : ethical considerations

Includes bibliographical references.In this paper, I wanted to be able to make some conclusions from the data that has been collected over the course of six semesters. I wanted to find out if males and females responded differently to questions on steroid use. More importantly, I wanted to know students in EPSE 200 really felt about steroid use- answers with some detail and feeling. The data was run using several oneway ANOVAs, along with spreadsheets of students' detailed answers to the five questions asked in the last semester recorded (Fall 1997). From the data run, we found that there are significant differences in male and female responses to steroid use, and that college students have similar ideas on steroid use whether a freshman or senior+. The spreadsheets were used to demonstrate answers given to the questions asked, both male and female answers. Overall, the data proved to be significant, and the paper is merely used to demonstrate that.B.S.Ed. (Bachelor of Science in Education

UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION IN CYCLIC CREEP PREDICTION OF CONCRETE

This paper presents a methodology for uncertainty quantification in cyclic creep analysis. Several models- , namely BP model, Whaley and Neville model, modified MC90 for cyclic loading and modified Hyperbolic function for cyclic loading are used for uncertainty quantification. Three types of uncertainty are included in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (i) natural variability in loading and materials properties; (ii) data uncertainty due to measurement errors; and (iii) modelling uncertainty and errors during cyclic creep analysis. Due to the consideration of all type of uncertainties, a measure for the total variation of the model response is achieved. The study finds that the BP, modified Hyperbolic and modified MC90 are best performing models for cyclic creep prediction in that order. Further, global Sensitivity Analysis (SA) considering the uncorrelated and correlated parameters is used to quantify the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the overall prediction uncertainty and to identifying the important parameters. The error in determining the input quantities and model itself can produce significant changes in creep prediction values. The variability influence of input random quantities on the cyclic creep was studied by means of the stochastic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis namely the Gartner et al. method and Saltelli et al. method. All input imperfections were considered to be random quantities. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) numerical simulation method (Monte Carlo type method) was used. It has been found by the stochastic sensitivity analysis that the cyclic creep deformation variability is most sensitive to the Elastic modulus of concrete, compressive strength, mean stress, cyclic stress amplitude, number of cycle, in that order

Quasi-Rational R&D Behavior in an Environment with Fundamental Uncertainty

The objective of our paper is to study R&D investments and pricing behavior in an environment with fundamental uncertainty. We designed a multi-period experiment in which each period consisted of two stages, an R&D phase and a pricing stage. Participants in the experiment had almost no information about the underlying functions, parameters, and probabilities. Subjects' behavior in the fundamentally uncertain environment of our experiment may best be characterized as some kind of procedural rationality which we call quasi-rationality. Pricing decisions are particularly close to equilibrium values. Although we do find some hints of the existence of behavioral effects in R&D decisions, only reinforcement effects are significant across both treatments and different model specifications. The introduction of patents has only a minor impact on R&D behavior. Overall, subjects learn to adapt remarkably well to a rather complex and fundamentally uncertain environment

CHARACTERIZATION OF TIME-DEPENDENT DEFORMATIONS OF POLYMER CEMENT CONCRETE (PCC)

Tests on Polymer Modified Cement Concrete (PCC) have shown significant large creep deformation. The reasons for that as well as additional material phenomena are explained in the following paper. Existing creep models developed for standard concrete are studied to determine the time-dependent deformations of PCC. These models are: model B3 by Bažant and Bajewa, the models according to Model Code 90 and ACI 209 as well as model GL2000 by Gardner and Lockman. The calculated creep strains are compared to existing experimental data of PCC and the differences are pointed out. Furthermore, an optimization of the model parameters is performed to fit the models to the experimental data to achieve a better model prognosis

UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION IN CYCLIC CREEP PREDICTION OF CONCRETE

This paper presents a methodology for uncertainty quantification in cyclic creep analysis. Several models- , namely BP model, Whaley and Neville model, modified MC90 for cyclic loading and modified Hyperbolic function for cyclic loading are used for uncertainty quantification. Three types of uncertainty are included in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (i) natural variability in loading and materials properties; (ii) data uncertainty due to measurement errors; and (iii) modelling uncertainty and errors during cyclic creep analysis. Due to the consideration of all type of uncertainties, a measure for the total variation of the model response is achieved. The study finds that the BP, modified Hyperbolic and modified MC90 are best performing models for cyclic creep prediction in that order. Further, global Sensitivity Analysis (SA) considering the uncorrelated and correlated parameters is used to quantify the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the overall prediction uncertainty and to identifying the important parameters. The error in determining the input quantities and model itself can produce significant changes in creep prediction values. The variability influence of input random quantities on the cyclic creep was studied by means of the stochastic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis namely the Gartner et al. method and Saltelli et al. method. All input imperfections were considered to be random quantities. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) numerical simulation method (Monte Carlo type method) was used. It has been found by the stochastic sensitivity analysis that the cyclic creep deformation variability is most sensitive to the Elastic modulus of concrete, compressive strength, mean stress, cyclic stress amplitude, number of cycle, in that order

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease

Background & aims An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community. Methods Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. Results The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of ‘agree’ responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement (‘agree’ + ‘somewhat agree’); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% ‘agree’), 13 priorities had 90% combined agreement. Conclusions Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community’s efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat. Impact and implications An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat