Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the Outer Product Emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the Leave-One-Out method

On the Evaluation of the Mechanical Behaviour of Structural Glass Elements

Glass can be considered to be a high-technology engineering material with a multifunctional potential for structural applications. However, the conventional approach to the use of glass is often based only on its properties of transparency and isolation. It is thus highly appropriate and necessary to study the mechanical behaviour of this material and to develop adequate methods and models leading to its characterisation. It is evident that the great potential of growth for structural glass applications is an important opportunity of development for the glass industry and the building/construction sectors. The work presented in this paper is a reflection of this conclusion. The authors shortly present the state-of-the-art on the application of glass as a structural element in building and construction, and refer to other potential fields of application and available glass materials. The experimental procedures and methods adopted in three-point bending tests performed on 500 × 100 [mm2] float, laminated and tempered glass specimens with thicknesses between 4 and 19 mm are thoroughly described. The authors evaluated the mechanical strength and stiffness of glass for structural applications. This work contributes to a deeper knowledge of the properties of this material

Scaling limit for a drainage network model

We consider the two dimensional version of a drainage network model introduced by Gangopadhyay, Roy and Sarkar, and show that the appropriately rescaled family of its paths converges in distribution to the Brownian web. We do so by verifying the convergence criteria proposed by Fontes, Isopi, Newman and Ravishankar.Comment: 15 page

Relation between Tcc,bbT_{cc,bb} and Xc,bX_{c,b} from QCD

We have studied, using double ratio of QCD (spectral) sum rules, the ratio between the masses of $T_{cc}$ and X(3872) assuming that they are respectively described by the $D-{D}^*$ and $D-\bar{D}^*$ molecular currents. We found (within our approximation) that the masses of these two states are almost degenerate. Since the pion exchange interaction between these mesons is exactly the same, we conclude that if the observed X(3872) meson is a $D\bar{D}^*+c.c.$ molecule, then the $DD^*$ molecule should also exist with approximately the same mass. An extension of the analysis to the $b$-quark case leads to the same conclusion. We also study the SU(3) breakings for the $T^s_{QQ}/T_{QQ}$ mass ratios. Motivated by the recent Belle observation of two $Z_b$ states, we revise our determination of $X_b$ by combining results from exponential and FESR sum rules.Comment: revised version to appear on Phys. Lett.