Red Cities, Blue Cities: Creativity, Growth and Politics

The 2006 Congressional elections seemed to be about change, as well as the war in Iraq. The 2008 Presidential election, though only at the primary stage, seems to be about change as well as the war in Iraq and the faltering economy. What is the force behind Americans wanting “change?” Is it simply frustration or is it because of important changes in the economy and the demography of the United States? In his 2002 book, Richard Florida looked at one of those changes and developed a “creativity index” measuring the existence of creative people, economic activity, and cultural tolerance for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. This study looks at the connection between the rise of the creative class, economic growth and voting patterns. We find that more creative metropolitan areas grow faster on average and creative areas are more likely to have voted Democratic in the past. Even after controlling for union membership, the presence of creative people explains how metropolitan areas voted in the 2004 Presidential election, hinting at one force behind Americans’ desire for political change.

Ice Storm Impacts on Forest Health: Monitoring the Growth and Mortality of Ice Damaged Trees in Francis Beidler Forest

Forests in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Plain are subjected to periodic disturbances such as fire, hurricane, ice storm, and drought. For floodplain forests, ice storms are among the most frequent and injurious disturbances that occur. Despite this, these storms have not been studied as often as other disturbances, so their ecological role remains unclear. This study takes place in Francis Beidler Forest, an original growth floodplain forest preserve administered by the National Audubon Society near Charleston, S.C. The study examined the impacts of an ice storm that occurred February 11th-13th, 2014 on 3,700 trees that reside in three forest community types along an increasing moisture gradient: upland, bottomland hardwood, and cypress-tupelo swamp. The objectives of the study were to monitor the immediate and long-term growth and mortality of trees in Beidler Forest in response to key factors related to the ice damage. Results imply that ice storm damage has a lasting impact on mortality in southern forests, with an increase from 3.4% mortality immediately after the storm to 13.1% four years later. Damage severity had a positive correlation with mortality (p \u3c 0.001) and damage categories of uproot and snapped bole were more likely to perish than those with crown damage. Evergreen broadleaf and marcescent trees in the upland community were significantly more likely to perish than deciduous trees (p \u3c 0.001). Small diameter trees were also more likely to perish than larger ones. The cypress-tupelo swamp is the community that is most resistant to ice storms, with significantly lower mortality (p \u3c 0.001) in trees \u3e 5cm DBH than the two drier communities, bottomland hardwood and upland. Trees with DBH \u3e11cm are the most dynamic in changes in growth after the storm, with \u3e30% each experiencing recovery and decline, while most smaller trees remain steady in post-storm growth rates. These results suggest while ice storms may be infrequent, their impact can have a lasting legacy on the remaining trees for years after an ice storm event

MODELING SPATIAL DEPENDENCE AND SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY IN COUNTY YIELD FORECASTING MODELS

The implications of ignoring potential spatial dependence in county-level yield data are discussed. Spatial dependence in a county-level yield data set is identified and methods for correcting the dependence via spatial weighting matrices and generalized least squares regression are performed. The paper also examines how the spatial dependence declines as the distance between observations increases.Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

The Spillover Effects of Country Fragility in Africa

With a focus on African countries, the purpose of this study is to test if country fragility, defined as  failing social, political, and economic systems, can spillover and ‘infect’ its neighbors. In other words, can failure in one country spillover and weaken the systems of its contiguous neighbor(s)?  This question extends previous research exploring negative country-neighbor contagion effects and the results are relevant to current debates regarding best strategies for building regional stability in Africa.  The spillover effect is tested using the Fund for Peace’s 2015 Fragile States Index (FSI), a broad measure of country fragility, and the Moran Index, a measure of spatial autocorrelation. The results of this analysis indicate that country failure has a significant spillover effect with its contiguous neighbors, which supports the policy shift some international aid organizations have made toward building regional resilience in Africa.  Specifically, policy makers have begun to consider responses to global crises that take a more regional, rather than national, perspective and the results of this analysis support this strategic policy shift. Key Words: Weak States, Failed States, Spillover Effect, Country Neighbor Effect

Human Trafficking: The Role of Culture

Human trafficking, like any market, involves both a supply and a demand.  In reference to the demand side, wealth has been generally recognized as the significant ‘pull’ factor to human trafficking; however, a debate remains, with exception to income, as to the significant ‘push’ or supply factors.  It is argued here that culture is an important, overlooked push factor.  Using Hofstede’s (1980) four dimensions of national culture, the primary purpose of this study is to empirically test to role of culture as a ‘push’ factor in human trafficking.  An ordered probit regression is estimated using the UNODC’s (2006) scaled measure of national human trafficking outflows across countries.  While controlling for economic development, the impact of Hofstede’s (1980) four cultural dimensions on human trafficking outflows are examined.  The analysis provides empirical evidence that two of the four Hofstede (1980) cultural dimensions significantly affect the likelihood that a country has a higher outflow of people being trafficked.    The results suggest that efforts to combat human trafficking should include educational campaigns that are tailored to address the cultural dimensions within a country. Keywords: Human Trafficking, Push Factors, Culture, Individualism, Power Distanc