Long term outlook for the world economy : issues and projections for the 1990s

The authors argue that, at the broad level of global analysis, there are good reasons to be optimistic about the 1990s. First, there are favorable supply side developments in many of the high income countries. Second, considerable scope exists for a recovery of private consumption and investment in the debt stricken developing countries, as well as in Eastern Europe and the USSR. The 1990s will see a continuation of the process of economic integration currently under way, emcompassing mainly the industrialized and the newly industrializing economies, propelled by rapid technological progress and increased competition in international markets, and taking place against a backdrop of policy reforms, economic restructuring, and political liberalization that has been gathering momentum since the early 1980s. According to the authors, the expected pattern of international trade and investment flows in the 1990s is likely to perpetuate two tracks of growth in the developing world. While it may be expected to be high in many Asian industrializing economies, relatively high population growth and low private investment will probably continue to depress living standards in many countries in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. The differences in investment rates of the 1980s between the higher-income and other developing countries will, if not reversed, tend to widen the productivity and technology gap between them.Environmental Economics&Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research

Economic shocks and the global environment

Policy formulation in most countries is complicated by the role of the external economic environment, especially during periods of great external shocks. The authors examine how individual countries were affected by, and responded to, external shocks. They apply an enhanced version of an earlier methodology for estimating the effect of three kinds of shock: terms of trade, variations in global demand, and changes in the interest rate. They discuss the magnitude of these shocks and country responses to them in Brazil, Ireland, and Korea and present numerical results for some other countries. The authors find that the magnitude of external shocks may be greater than previously recognized. The size and components of the shock depend on such factors as the country's openness to trade, the composition of its imports and exports, and its level of external debt. The authors also found that countries differ greatly in their responses to external shocks. Some rely on additional external financing, some place more emphasis on export promotion, and others favor import substitution. The authors conclude that the magnitude and composition of external shocks should be part of any explanation of why growth rates differ among countries.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,Achieving Shared Growth

New estimates of total factor productivity growth for developing and industrial countries

The authors present new estimates of long-term total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 83 industrial and developing countries for 1960-87. These estimates are based on new data developed for the research project on total factor productivity growth (and available on diskette). Although based on the"old"growth theory, the estimates are derived from a cross-country production function using an error-correction model. This is more appropriate than the usual first-difference model for capturing long-term relations. The authors concluded the following: (a) The estimated cross-country production function shows that human capital accumulation is far more important in explaining growth than several earlier studies have indicated. This conforms with recent studies that find raw labor's share in income to be much less than thought previously. (b) Contrary to the results of other studies, TFP growth in high-income countries has been comparable to that in faster-growing low and middle income countries. (c) The fastest growing developing economies have based their growth more on the rapidity with which they have accumulated physical and human capital than on high TFP growth. (d) Cross-country differences in TFP growth are largely due to differences in the level of political stability and initial conditions (notably, initial per capita income and the initial level of human capital). (e) Cross-country differences in TFP growth (once corrected for initial conditions and political stability) cannot be explained by structural and policy differences for which data are readily available (despite and exhaustive search for other explanations). (f) Sub - Saharan Africa is the only region for which the actual TFP growth is significantly lower than the TFP growth predicted on the strength of initial conditions and political stability (by about 1.1 percentage points a year). The cross-country profile of TFP growth and the role of initial conditions point toward the dual role played by human capital in the development process: as a standard factor of production to be accumulated and as a source of learning and entrepreneurship and hence of interesting growth dynamics. It may be necessary to rethink the concept of"TFP as the residual"in models with human capital. The relationship between policy variables and TFP growth is likely to be sensitive tothe way human capital is incorporated in the production function. These substantive issues, along with a number of econometric refinements, are fruitful avenues for further research.Economic Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Inequality

Are private capital flows to developing countries sustainable?

The remarkable surge in private capital flow to developing countries since 1990 has greatly facilitated their rapid growth, at a time when OECD countries have been in, or passed through, recession. The importance of these flows to the current account of severallarge developing countries has caused concern about their sustainability, especially if international interest rates continue rising. The form of these flows, and their source - investors rather than commercial banks - causes concern about their short-term volatility. To address the issue of sustainability, the authors draw on analyses of international financial flows and economic prospects carried out by the Bank's International Economics Department. They conclude that private capital flows to developing countries are likely to be sustained at, or near, current total levels for the following reasons: (a) Much of the private flow comes from direct investment. Foreign direct investment has increased as international businesses pursue globalization strategies. Firms are taking advantage of liberalization drives and rising incomes in developing countries, as well as dramatic changes in transport and telecommunications - factors that are structural rather than cyclical, and that are likely to be reinforced by implementation of Uruguay Round agreements. (b) Sources of finance are more diversified. There is greater risk-sharing between creditor and debtor. Funds are predominantly going to the private sector (not sovereign governments). Also, developing countries still account for less than 1 percent of the investment portfolios of OECD investors. In the 1970s, commercial loans accounted for proportionately more flows. Now, increasingly large roles are played by bondholders, equity investors, and money market funds. (c) A prolonged major increase in international interest rates would jeopardize continuation of the flows at current levels, but the likelihood of such an increase in the next three to five years is slim. Any rise in interest rates in industrial countries will largely reflect rising demand for credit because of increased economic activity, which will benefit developing country exports. Commodity prices have surged in the past six months, but measures of core inflation, including unit labor cost, are at a historic low. This scenario is very different from the combination of high interest rates and economic recession the developing would faced in the early 1980s, as high and rising inflation induced sudden tightening of monetary policies. Still, significant areas of risk deserve attention from developing country governments, international financial institutions, and industrial country investors. Some major recipients of private capital flow are vulnerable to sudden changes in both domestic or external environments. And portfolio equity flows are likely to be more volatile than other forms of private capital flows. The policy response to large capital inflows should depend on whether the current account deficit is sustainable and the degree to which it is over - or underfinanced. While the external environment is favorable, vulnerable countries have a window of opportunity to undertake adjustment.Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Macroeconomic Management

Interface Interaction Designer Integrated With Widgets

Application is a completely intuitive wire framing tool, principally went for experienced web designer that permits you to outline, make, and test wireframes and models. The application contains highlights like determination modes, widget styles, and the dynamic board administrator. It has three straightforward targets; the unmistakable presentation of Main gatherings of data, Layout/structure of data and Core representation and depictions of client interface co-operations. Similarly as with different tool in the rundown, Application gloats a move and customize highlight that permits you to gather your wireframe effortlessly and without a requirement for coding and all tasks can be imparted to different engineers to permit outline groups to work collectively on the same wire frame. Applications intelligence implies that the architect has the capacity offer thoughts with associates, customers and partners from the soonest phases of advancement, and its proficiency implies any adjustments and further improvements can be made rapidly

Imagining Artificial Intelligence Applications with People with Visual Disabilities Using Tactile Ideation

There has been a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies co-opted by or designed for people with visual disabilities. Researchers and engineers have pushed technical boundaries in areas such as computer vision, natural language processing, location inference, and wearable computing. But what do people with visual disabilities imagine as their own technological future? To explore this question, we developed and carried out tactile ideation workshops with participants in the UK and India. Our participants generated a large and diverse set of ideas, most focusing on ways to meet needs related to social interaction. In some cases, this was a matter of recognizing people. In other cases, they wanted to be able to participate in social situations without foregrounding their disability. It was striking that this finding was consistent across UK and India despite substantial cultural and infrastructural differences. In this paper, we describe a new technique for working with people with visual disabilities to imagine new technologies that are tuned to their needs and aspirations. Based on our experience with these workshops, we provide a set of social dimensions to consider in the design of new AI technologies: social participation, social navigation, social maintenance, and social independence. We offer these social dimensions as a starting point to forefront users' social needs and desires as a more deliberate consideration for assistive technology design

Improvement of brinjals (Solanum Melongena, L.) by selection in the Bombay province

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