Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’

Association of a Functional Variant in the Wnt Co-Receptor LRP6 with Early Onset Ileal Crohn's Disease

Ileal Crohn's Disease (CD), a chronic small intestinal inflammatory disorder, is characterized by reduced levels of the antimicrobial peptides DEFA5 (HD-5) and DEFA6 (HD-6). Both of these α-defensins are exclusively produced in Paneth cells (PCs) at small intestinal crypt bases. Different ileal CD–associated genes including NOD2, ATG16L1, and recently the β-catenin–dependant Wnt transcription factor TCF7L2 have been linked to impaired PC antimicrobial function. The Wnt pathway influences gut mucosal homeostasis and PC maturation, besides directly controlling HD-5/6 gene expression. The herein reported candidate gene study focuses on another crucial Wnt factor, the co-receptor low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 6 (LRP6). We analysed exonic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a large cohort (Oxford: n = 1,893) and prospectively tested 2 additional European sample sets (Leuven: n = 688, Vienna: n = 1,628). We revealed an association of a non-synonymous SNP (rs2302685; Ile1062Val) with early onset ileal CD (OR 1.8; p = 0.00034; for homozygous carriers: OR 4.1; p = 0.00004) and additionally with penetrating ileal CD behaviour (OR 1.3; p = 0.00917). In contrast, it was not linked to adult onset ileal CD, colonic CD, or ulcerative colitis. Since the rare variant is known to impair LRP6 activity, we investigated its role in patient mucosa. Overall, LRP6 mRNA was diminished in patients independently from the genotype. Analysing the mRNA levels of PC product in biopsies from genotyped individuals (15 controls, 32 ileal, and 12 exclusively colonic CD), we found particularly low defensin levels in ileal CD patients who were carrying the variant. In addition, we confirmed a direct relationship between LRP6 activity and the transcriptional expression of HD-5 using transient transfection. Taken together, we identified LRP6 as a new candidate gene in ileal CD. Impairments in Wnt signalling and Paneth cell biology seem to represent pathophysiological hallmarks in small intestinal inflammation and should therefore be considered as interesting targets for new therapeutic approaches

A massive quiescent galaxy at redshift 4.658

A. C. Carnall thanks the Leverhulme Trust for their support via a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship. R. J. McLure, J. S. Dunlop, D. J. McLeod, V. Wild, R. Begley, C. T. Donnan and M. L. Hamadouche acknowledge the support of the Science and Technology Facilities Council. F. Cullen acknowledges support from a UKRI Frontier Research Guarantee Grant (grant reference EP/X021025/1). A. Cimatti acknowledges support from the grant PRIN MIUR 2017 - 20173ML3WW 001.The extremely rapid assembly of the earliest galaxies during the first billion years of cosmic history is a major challenge for our understanding of galaxy formation physics (1; 2; 3; 4; 5). The advent of JWST has exacerbated this issue by confirming the existence of galaxies in significant numbers as early as the first few hundred million years (6; 7; 8). Perhaps even more surprisingly, in some galaxies, this initial highly efficient star formation rapidly shuts down, or quenches, giving rise to massive quiescent galaxies as little as 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang (9; 10), however, due to their faintness and red colour, it has proven extremely challenging to learn about these extreme quiescent galaxies, or to confirm whether any exist at earlier times. Here we report the spectroscopic confirmation of a massive quiescent galaxy, GS-9209, at redshift, z = 4.658, just 1.25 billion years after the Big Bang, using JWST NIRSpec. From these data we infer a stellar mass of M∗ = 3.8 ± 0.2 × 1010 M⊙, which formed over a ≃ 200 Myr period before this galaxy quenched its star formation activity at z=6.5+0.2−0.5, when the Universe was ≃ 800 million years old. This galaxy is both a likely descendent of the highest-redshift submillimetre galaxies and quasars, and a likely progenitor for the dense, ancient cores of the most massive local galaxies.PostprintPeer reviewe

Genetic Variants of Wnt Transcription Factor TCF-4 (TCF7L2) Putative Promoter Region Are Associated with Small Intestinal Crohn's Disease

Reduced expression of Paneth cell antimicrobial α-defensins, human defensin (HD)-5 and -6, characterizes Crohn's disease (CD) of the ileum. TCF-4 (also named TCF7L2), a Wnt signalling pathway transcription factor, orchestrates Paneth cell differentiation, directly regulates the expression of HD-5 and -6, and was previously associated with the decrease of these antimicrobial peptides in a subset of ileal CD. To investigate a potential genetic association of TCF-4 with ileal CD, we sequenced 2.1 kb of the 5′ flanking region of TCF-4 in a small group of ileal CD patients and controls (n = 10 each). We identified eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), of which three (rs3814570, rs10885394, rs10885395) were in linkage disequilibrium and found more frequently in patients; one (rs3814570) was thereby located in a predicted regulatory region. We carried out high-throughput analysis of this SNP in three cohorts of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients and controls. Overall 1399 healthy individuals, 785 ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, 225 CD patients with colonic disease only and 784 CD patients with ileal involvement were used to determine frequency distributions. We found an association of rs3814570 with ileal CD but neither with colonic CD or UC, in a combined analysis (allele positivity: OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.52, p = 0.00737), which was the strongest in ileal CD patients with stricturing behaviour (allele frequency: OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08 to1.62, p = 0.00686) or an additional involvement of the upper GIT (allele frequency: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.03 to1.84, p = 0.02882). The newly identified genetic association of TCF-4 with ileal CD provides evidence that the decrease in Paneth cell α-defensins is a primary factor in disease pathogenesis

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1-3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods - recursive partitioning and regression - to pinpoint disease susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A (risk ratios >1.5; Pcombined = 2.01 × 10-19 and 2.35 × 10-13, respectively) in addition to the established associations of the MHC class II genes. Other loci with smaller and/or rarer effects might also be involved, but to find these, future searches must take into account both the HLA class II and class I genes and use even larger samples. Taken together with previous studies, we conclude that MHC-class-I-mediated events, principally involving HLA-B*39, contribute to the aetiology of type 1 diabetes. ©2007 Nature Publishing Group

The contribution of X-linked coding variation to severe developmental disorders

Abstract: Over 130 X-linked genes have been robustly associated with developmental disorders, and X-linked causes have been hypothesised to underlie the higher developmental disorder rates in males. Here, we evaluate the burden of X-linked coding variation in 11,044 developmental disorder patients, and find a similar rate of X-linked causes in males and females (6.0% and 6.9%, respectively), indicating that such variants do not account for the 1.4-fold male bias. We develop an improved strategy to detect X-linked developmental disorders and identify 23 significant genes, all of which were previously known, consistent with our inference that the vast majority of the X-linked burden is in known developmental disorder-associated genes. Importantly, we estimate that, in male probands, only 13% of inherited rare missense variants in known developmental disorder-associated genes are likely to be pathogenic. Our results demonstrate that statistical analysis of large datasets can refine our understanding of modes of inheritance for individual X-linked disorders