A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates

There is strong evidence of a stable “money demand” relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s. Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994. This paper’s results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds. This reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring, but it could also be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost.Demand for money

A description of the methods of the aspirin supplementation for pregnancy indicated risk reduction in nulliparas (ASPIRIN) study

Background: Preterm birth (PTB) remains the leading cause of neonatal mortality and long term disability throughout the world. Though complex in its origins, a growing body of evidence suggests that first trimester administration of low dose aspirin (LDA) may substantially reduce the rate of PTB.Methods: Hypothesis: LDA initiated in the first trimester reduces the risk of preterm birth. Study Design Type: Prospective randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded multi-national clinical trial conducted in seven low and middle income countries. Trial will be individually randomized with one-to-one ratio (intervention/control) Population: Nulliparous women between the ages of 14 and 40, with a singleton pregnancy between 6 0/7 weeks and 13 6/7 weeks gestational age (GA) confirmed by ultrasound prior to enrollment, no more than two previous first trimester pregnancy losses, and no contraindications to aspirin.Intervention: Daily administration of low dose (81 mg) aspirin, initiated between 6 0/7 weeks and 13 6/7 weeks GA and continued to 36 0/7 weeks GA, compared to an identical appearing placebo. Compliance and outcomes will be assessed biweekly.Outcomes: Primary outcome: Incidence of PTB (birth prior to 37 0/7 weeks GA). Secondary outcomes Incidence of preeclampsia/eclampsia, small for gestational age and perinatal mortality.Discussion: This study is unique as it will examine the impact of LDA early in pregnancy in low-middle income countries with preterm birth as a primary outcome. The importance of developing low-cost, high impact interventions in low-middle income countries is magnified as they are often unable to bear the financial costs of treating illness

Genomic Analysis Highlights the Role of the JAK-STAT Signaling in the Anti-proliferative Effects of Dietary Flavonoid—‘Ashwagandha’ in Prostate Cancer Cells

Phytochemicals are dietary phytoestrogens that may play a role in prostate cancer prevention. Forty percent of Americans use complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) for disease prevention and therapy. Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera) contains flavonoids and active ingredients like alkaloids and steroidal lactones which are called ‘Withanolides’. We hypothesize that the immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties of Ashwagandha might contribute to its overall effectiveness as an anti-carcinogenic agent. The goal of our study was gain insight into the general biological and molecular functions and immunomodulatory processes that are altered as a result of Ashwagandha treatment in prostate cancer cells, and to identify the key signaling mechanisms that are involved in the regulation of these physiological effects using genomic microarray analysis in conjunction with quantitative real-time PCR and western blot analysis. Ashwagandha treatment significantly downregulated the gene and protein expression of proinflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-1β, chemokine IL-8, Hsp70 and STAT-2, while a reciprocal upregulation was observed in gene and protein expression of p38 MAPK, PI3K, caspase 6, Cyclin D and c-myc. Furthermore, Ashwagandha treatment significantly modulated the JAK-STAT pathway which regulates both the apoptosis process as well as the MAP kinase signaling. These studies outline several functionally important classes of genes, which are associated with immune response, signal transduction, cell signaling, transcriptional regulation, apoptosis and cell cycle regulation and provide insight into the molecular signaling mechanisms that are modulated by Ashwagandha, thereby highlighting the use of this bioflavanoid as effective chemopreventive agent relevant to prostate cancer progression

An assessment of chemical contaminants, toxicity and benthic infauna in sediments from the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER)

This report contains a chemical and biological characterization of sediments from the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER) in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). The STEER Management Plan (published in 2011) identified chemical contaminants and habitat loss as high or very high threats and called for a characterization of chemical contaminants as well as an assessment of their effects on natural resources. The baseline information contained in this report on chemical contaminants, toxicity and benthic infaunal community composition can be used to assess current conditions, as well as the efficacy of future restoration activities. In this phase of the project, 185 chemical contaminants, including a number of organic (e.g., hydrocarbons and pesticides) and inorganic (e.g., metals) compounds, were analyzed from 24 sites in the STEER. Sediments were also analyzed using a series of toxicity bioassays, including amphipod mortality, sea urchin fertilization impairment, and the cytochrome P450 Human Reporter Gene System (HRGS), along with a characterization of the benthic infaunal community. Higher levels of chemical contaminants were found in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay in the western portion of the study area than in the eastern area. The concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane), chlordane, zinc, copper, lead and mercury were above a NOAA sediment quality guideline at one or more sites, indicating impacts may be present in more sensitive species or life stages in the benthic environment. Copper at one site in Benner Bay, however, was above a NOAA guideline indicating that effects on benthic organisms were likely. The antifoulant boat hull ingredient tributyltin, or TBT, was found at the third highest concentration in the history of NOAA’s National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program, which monitors the Nation’s coastal and estuarine waters for chemical contaminants and bioeffects. Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any established sediment quality guidelines for TBT. Results of the bioassays indicated significant sediment toxicity in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay using multiple tests. The benthic infaunal communities in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay appeared severely diminished

Evidence-based Toxicology for the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges

The Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration (EBTC) was established recently to translate evidence-based approaches from medicine and health care to toxicology in an organized and sustained effort. The EBTC held a workshop on “Evidence-based Toxicology for the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges” in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA on January 24-25, 2012. The presentations largely reflected two EBTC priorities: to apply evidence-based methods to assessing the performance of emerging pathwaybased testing methods consistent with the 2007 National Research Council report on “Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century” as well as to adopt a governance structure and work processes to move that effort forward. The workshop served to clarify evidence-based approaches and to provide food for thought on substantive and administrative activities for the EBTC. Priority activities include conducting pilot studies to demonstrate the value of evidence-based approaches to toxicology, as well as conducting educational outreach on these approaches

Evidence-based Toxicology for the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges

The Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration (EBTC) was established recently to translate evidence-based approaches from medicine and health care to toxicology in an organized and sustained effort. The EBTC held a workshop on “Evidence-based Toxicology for the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges” in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA on January 24-25, 2012. The presentations largely reflected two EBTC priorities: to apply evidence-based methods to assessing the performance of emerging pathwaybased testing methods consistent with the 2007 National Research Council report on “Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century” as well as to adopt a governance structure and work processes to move that effort forward. The workshop served to clarify evidence-based approaches and to provide food for thought on substantive and administrative activities for the EBTC. Priority activities include conducting pilot studies to demonstrate the value of evidence-based approaches to toxicology, as well as conducting educational outreach on these approaches

A Seriation Approach for Visualization-Driven Discovery of Co-Expression Patterns in Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE) Data

Background: Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE) is a DNA sequencing-based method for large-scale gene expression profiling that provides an alternative to microarray analysis. Most analyses of SAGE data aimed at identifying co-expressed genes have been accomplished using various versions of clustering approaches that often result in a number of false positives. Principal Findings: Here we explore the use of seriation, a statistical approach for ordering sets of objects based on their similarity, for large-scale expression pattern discovery in SAGE data. For this specific task we implement a seriation heuristic we term ‘progressive construction of contigs ’ that constructs local chains of related elements by sequentially rearranging margins of the correlation matrix. We apply the heuristic to the analysis of simulated and experimental SAGE data and compare our results to those obtained with a clustering algorithm developed specifically for SAGE data. We show using simulations that the performance of seriation compares favorably to that of the clustering algorithm on noisy SAGE data. Conclusions: We explore the use of a seriation approach for visualization-based pattern discovery in SAGE data. Using both simulations and experimental data, we demonstrate that seriation is able to identify groups of co-expressed genes more accurately than a clustering algorithm developed specifically for SAGE data. Our results suggest that seriation is a usefu

Sheep Updates 2008 - part 3

This session covers fiveteen papers from different authors: CONTROLLING FLY STRIKE 1. Breeding for Blowfly Resistance - Indicatoe Traits, LJE Karlsson, JC Greeff, L Slocombe, Department of Agriculture & Food, Western Australia 2.A practical method to select for breech strike resistance in non-pedigreed Merino flocks, LJE Karlsson, JC Greeff, L Slocombe, K. Jones, N. Underwood, Department of Agriculture & Food, Western Australia 3. Twice a year shearing - no mulesing, Fred Wilkinson, Producer, Brookton WA BEEF 4. Commercial testing of a new tool for prediction of fatness in beef cattle, WD HoffmanA, WA McKiernanA, VH OddyB, MJ McPheeA, Cooperative Research Centre for Beef Genetic Technologies, A N.S.W. Deptartment of Primary Industries, B University of New England 5. A new tool for the prediction of fatness in beef cattle, W.A. McKiernanA, V.H. OddyB and M.J. McPheeC; Cooperative Research Centre for Beef Genetic Technologies, A N.S.W. Dept of Primary Industries, B University of New England, C N.S.W. Dept of Primary Industries Beef Industry Centre of Excellence. 6. Effect of gene markers for tenderness on eating quality of beef, B.L. McIntyre, CRC for Beef Genetic Technologies, Department of Agriculture and Food WA 7. Accelerating beef industry innovation through Beef Profit Partnerships, Parnell PF1,2, Clark RA1,3, Timms J1,3, Griffith G1,2, Alford A1,2, Mulholland C1 and Hyland P1,4,1Co-operative Research Centre for Beef Genetic Technologies; 2NSW Department of Primary Industries; 3 Qld Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries; 4The University of Queensland. SUSTAINABILITY 8. The WA Sheep Industry - is it ethically and environmentally sustainable? Danielle England, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 9. Overview of ruminant agriculture and greenhouse emissions, Fiona Jones, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 10. Grazing for Nitrogen Efficiency, John Lucey, Martin Staines and Richard Morris, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 11. Investigating potential adaptations to climate change for low rainfall farming system, Megan Abrahams, Caroline Peek, Dennis Van Gool, Daniel Gardiner, Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia SHEEP 12. Benchmarking ewe productivity through on-farm genetic comparisons, Sandra Prosser, Mario D’Antuono and Johan Greeff; Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 13. Increasing profitability by pregnancy scanning ewes, John Young1, Andrew Thompson2 and Chris Oldham2; 1Farming Systems Analysis Service, Kojonup, WA, 2Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 14. Targeted treatment of worm-affected sheep - more efficient, more sustainable, Brown Besier, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia 15. Improving Weaner Sheep Survival, Angus Campbell and Ralph Behrendt, Cooperative Research Centre for Sheep Industry Innovatio