Generalizing the Network Scale-Up Method: A New Estimator for the Size of Hidden Populations

The network scale-up method enables researchers to estimate the size of hidden populations, such as drug injectors and sex workers, using sampled social network data. The basic scale-up estimator offers advantages over other size estimation techniques, but it depends on problematic modeling assumptions. We propose a new generalized scale-up estimator that can be used in settings with non-random social mixing and imperfect awareness about membership in the hidden population. Further, the new estimator can be used when data are collected via complex sample designs and from incomplete sampling frames. However, the generalized scale-up estimator also requires data from two samples: one from the frame population and one from the hidden population. In some situations these data from the hidden population can be collected by adding a small number of questions to already planned studies. For other situations, we develop interpretable adjustment factors that can be applied to the basic scale-up estimator. We conclude with practical recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies

The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda.

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces consistent and unbiased estimates. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n = 4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that this method can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed

Learning Policies from Self-Play with Policy Gradients and MCTS Value Estimates

In recent years, state-of-the-art game-playing agents often involve policies that are trained in self-playing processes where Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithms and trained policies iteratively improve each other. The strongest results have been obtained when policies are trained to mimic the search behaviour of MCTS by minimising a cross-entropy loss. Because MCTS, by design, includes an element of exploration, policies trained in this manner are also likely to exhibit a similar extent of exploration. In this paper, we are interested in learning policies for a project with future goals including the extraction of interpretable strategies, rather than state-of-the-art game-playing performance. For these goals, we argue that such an extent of exploration is undesirable, and we propose a novel objective function for training policies that are not exploratory. We derive a policy gradient expression for maximising this objective function, which can be estimated using MCTS value estimates, rather than MCTS visit counts. We empirically evaluate various properties of resulting policies, in a variety of board games.Comment: Accepted at the IEEE Conference on Games (CoG) 201

Multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics with anisotropy and flow

We present an extension of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) equilibrium model that includes pressure anisotropy and general plasma flows. This anisotropic extension to our previous isotropic model is motivated by Sun and Finn's model of relaxed anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic equilibria. We prove that as the number of plasma regions becomes infinite, our anisotropic extension of MRxMHD reduces to anisotropic ideal MHD with flow. The continuously nested flux surface limit of our MRxMHD model is the first variational principle for anisotropic plasma equilibria with general flow fields.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1401.307

Longitudinal assessment of reflexive and volitional saccades in Niemann-Pick Type C disease during treatment with miglustat

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Framework for Electroencephalography-based Evaluation of User Experience

Measuring brain activity with electroencephalography (EEG) is mature enough to assess mental states. Combined with existing methods, such tool can be used to strengthen the understanding of user experience. We contribute a set of methods to estimate continuously the user's mental workload, attention and recognition of interaction errors during different interaction tasks. We validate these measures on a controlled virtual environment and show how they can be used to compare different interaction techniques or devices, by comparing here a keyboard and a touch-based interface. Thanks to such a framework, EEG becomes a promising method to improve the overall usability of complex computer systems.Comment: in ACM. CHI '16 - SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing System, May 2016, San Jose, United State

Open Letter In Support of the Digital Humanities Studio Space at Butler Library

The Studio at Butler Library, as we imagine it, will host mix of scheduled events loosely related to digital humanities, along with providing an unstructured, community-driven workspace for all those interested in the applied aspects of book culture, data curation, knowledge design, big history, complex social systems, experimental philosophy and criticism, cultural analytics, network analysis, computational modeling, text mining, data visualization, and critical making

Quantum kinetic theory model of a continuous atom laser

We investigate the feasible limits for realising a continuously evaporated atom laser with high-temperature sources. A plausible scheme for realising a truly continuous atom laser is to outcouple atoms from a partially condensed Bose gas, whilst continuously reloading the system with non-condensed thermal atoms and performing evaporative cooling. Here we use quantum kinetic theory to model this system and estimate feasible limits for the operation of such a scheme. For sufficiently high temperatures, the figure of merit for the source is shown to be the phase-space flux. The dominant process limiting the usage of sources with low phase-space flux is the three-body loss of the condensed gas. We conclude that certain double-magneto-optical trap (MOT) sources may produce substantial mean condensate numbers through continuous evaporation, and provide an atom laser source with a narrow linewidth and reasonable flux.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure