Connecting the unobserved dots : a decomposition analysis of changes in earnings inequality in urban Argentina, 1980-2002

There are several possible explanations for the observed changes in inequality, the returns to education, and the gap between the wages of informal and formal salaried workers in Argentina over the period 1980-2002. Largely due to the lack of evidence for competing explanations, skill-biased technical change is the most likely explanation forthe increases in the returns to education that occurred in the 1990s. Using a semi-parametric re-weighting variance decomposition technique and data from the Permanent Household Survey, the authors show that during the same period there was an increase in the returns to unobserved skill. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that skill-biased technical change has been a main driver of increases in inequality in Argentina. The pattern of changes suggests that the growth in returns to unobserved skill may have been partly responsible for the relative deterioration of informal salaried wages during the 1990s.,Labor Markets,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Primary Education,Education For All

Growth, inequality, and simulated poverty paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002

Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995–2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates over the course of the period, changes in poverty are simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that is better suited to taking into account distributional changesobserved between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires sustaining high growth in rural output per capita.Public Health Promotion,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Poverty Assessment,Governance Indicators,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The Drought and Food Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Impacts and Proposed Policy Responses for Kenya

As the world begins to feel the effects of climate change, the frequency of droughts is increasing in the Horn of Africa. In Kenya, the drought and food crisis affect welfare through two main channels. The first channel is the increased mortality of livestock in drought-affected areas, which are home to 10 percent of the country’s population. The second channel is by exacerbating increases in food prices, which are largely driven by worldwide price trends. Considering these two channels, this note identifies four broad policy changes that can reduce Kenya’s future vulnerability to such shocks: (i) investment in people in the arid and semiarid lands; (ii) reform of Kenya’s maize policy; (iii) review of the East African Community grain trade policy; and (iv) formulation of a unified social protection system.climate change, drought, horn of Africa, Kenya, food crisis, famine, price shocks, maize, East African Community, social protection

Students and the market for schools in Haiti

Uniquely among Latin American and Caribbean countries, Haiti has a largely non-public education system. Prior to the earthquake of January 2010, just 19 percent of primary school students were enrolled in public schools, with the remainder enrolled in a mix of religious, for-profit, and non-governmental organization-funded schools. This paper examines changes in Haitian schooling patterns in the last century and shows the country experienced tremendous growth in school attainment, driven almost entirely by growth in the private sector. Additionally, it provides evidence that the private market"works"to the extent that primary school fees are higher for schools with characteristics associated with education quality. The paper also analyzes the demand and supply determinants of school attendance and finds that household wealth is a major determinant of attendance. Given these findings, the authors conclude that in the near-term paying school fees for poor students may be an effective approach to expanding schooling access in Haiti.Education For All,Tertiary Education,Primary Education,Disability,Gender and Education

Recipient of the 2015 Alumni Distinguished Leadership Award

As an economist at the World Bank, Dr. Gabriel Demombynes works on issues of poverty and inequality in developing countries. He is best known for his work arguing for the greater use of the scientific method in evaluating international development programs. Together with co-author Michael A. Clemens, he published a groundbreaking critique of the Millennium Villages Project, a high-profile rural development project implemented in several communities in sub-Saharan Africa. Dr. Demombynes holds both a BS in Civil and Environmental Engineering and a BA from the Plan II Liberal Arts Honors Program at the University of Texas at Austin, as well as a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley

How good a map ? Putting small area estimation to the test

The authors examine the performance of small area welfare estimation. The method combines census and survey data to produce spatially disaggregated poverty and inequality estimates. To test the method, they compare predicted welfare indicators for a set of target populations with their true values. They construct target populations using actual data from a census of households in a set of rural Mexican communities. They examine estimates along three criteria: accuracy of confidence intervals, bias, and correlation with true values. The authors find that while point estimates are very stable, the precision of the estimates varies with alternative simulation methods. While the original approach of numerical gradient estimation yields standard errors that seem appropriate, some computationally less-intensive simulation procedures yield confidence intervals that are slightly too narrow. The precision of estimates is shown to diminish markedly if unobserved location effects at the village level are not well captured in underlying consumption models. With well specified models there is only slight evidence of bias, but the authors show that bias increases if underlying models fail to capture latent location effects. Correlations between estimated and true welfare at the local level are highest for mean expenditure and poverty measures and lower for inequality measures.Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Rural Poverty Reduction,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Population Policies

Producing an Improved Geographic Profile of Poverty: Methodology and Evidence from Three Developing Countries

Poverty measurement, Poverty profiles, Spatial distribution, Forecasting models, Statistical inference

<i>Sakīna</i>: contribución a su estudio

This article explores the postkoranic evolution of the term sakīna. First, it examines what previous research has said about that. It then presents, translates, and analizes five texts—which had not been taken into consideration previously— pertaining to the Islamic and philosophical fields in which this term occurs. The texts have been taken from Ibn Ḥabīb, al-Tawḥīdī, the Arabic translation of the Golden Verses, and the two Commentaries on the Golden Verses attributed respectively to Iamblichus and Proclus. The article shows how the Koranic sakīna has evolved in these texts: it connotes pacification of violent animals in Ibn Habib, in al-Tawhidi it denotes a state close to Divinity of characters similar to Sufis: in the Golden Verses, the term sakīna is used to translate daímōn, thanks to which evils originating from innate discord among humans are eliminated; finally, the Commentaries on the Golden Verses contain explanations of this term that are both religious and rationalist.Estudio del término sakīna en su evolución postcoránica en el que se muestra, en primer lugar, lo que la investigación ha dicho sobre él, para, a continuación, presentar, traducir y analizar cinco textos pertenecientes al ámbito islámico y al filosófico en donde aparece dicho término y que no habían sido tenidos en cuenta hasta ahora. Estos textos proceden de: Ibn Ḥabīb, al-Tawḥīdī, traducción árabe de los Versos áureos, y Comentarios de Jámblico y de Proclo a estos Versos áureos. La sakīna coránica evoluciona en estos autores pasando a connotar una pacificación en los animales violentos en Ibn Habib y un estado cercano a la divinidad de caracteres próximos al de los sufíes en al-Tawhidi, mientras que en los Versos áureos se emplea sakīna para traducir daímōn, con sus efectos de eliminación de los males originados por la discordia innata a los hombres. En los Comentarios a los Versos áureos se dan explicaciones, de corte religioso y racionalista a la vez, de dicho término