A COMPARISON OF ARCH MODELS: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

The aim of this study is to determine the number of transactions among the currencies, which will eventually become a part of our lives, cannot be physically held, can move quickly, and emerge as a new shopping and investment tool in the changing world order, as of the year (2023) when this study was conducted. The study focuses on the analysis of the variables that affect the most popular currency, Bitcoin. Although the analysis of variables that influence Bitcoin was determined as the primary aim of the study, the study also attempted to reach a general conclusion about the variables affected by the cryptocurrencies. Since there is no other cryptocurrency that is traded as much as Bitcoin, Bitcoin is thought to be a good model for the analysis of cryptocurrencies. The method used in the study was autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) models. It is believed that the most suitable models for the Bitcoin variable, whose value changes every second, are ARCH and its derivatives. Other models selected from the ARCH models were also added to the analysis as a method. The models used in the study can be listed as follows: linear ARC, generalized ARC (GARCH), exponential GARCH and threshold GARCH. A statistical model called autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is used to study the volatility of time series. Through the provision of a volatility model that more closely mimics actual markets, ARCH modeling is utilized in the financial sector to quantify risk. According to ARCH modeling, periods of high volatility are followed by even higher volatility, and periods of low volatility are followed by even lower volatility. In this study, 5 different variables were selected using literature to analyze the variables affecting Bitcoin returns using ARCH models. The dependent variable in the study is the price of Bitcoin. The remaining variables were included in the models as independent variables. These variables are actually variables that are accepted and selected as the best among a set of variables. In other words, 15 variables were first added to the study using the literature. After this, a correlation analysis was carried out. As a result of the correlation analysis, the variables with the highest correlation with the price of Bitcoin, which is the dependent variable, and the lowest correlation with each other were retained in the model. These variables are Bitcoin Price, Crude Oil Spot Price, Euro-Dollar Parity, Gold Spot Price and NASDAQ Composite Index. The study period is between 2020 and 2023 and it was studied using daily data. Days with no data were removed from the daily period from 2020 to 2023 and loss of information was prevented. After removing missing observations, this study examined the remaining 837 observations. During the research, while running the models created using different methods, it was found that the model that gives the best result is the GARCH model. In other words, when modeling the variables affecting bitcoin (cryptocurrency from the perspective of the population), it was seen that the GARCH model gave the best results when comparing linear ARCH, generalized ARCH (GARCH), exponential GARCH, and threshold GARCH of the ARCH model. Comparing the output of the GARCH model with other ARCH models not included in this study can be a recommendation for the future study

Sectoral market risk premiums in Turkey

Purpose- This empirical study aims to measure the sectoral market risk premiums in the Turkish stock market for the period of 2016 and 2021 and also estimate the sectoral market risk premiums for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most widely used and popular method in the analysis of investment projects, stock valuation, firm valuation, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, and secondary public offerings. The market risk premium in CAPM is defined as the the difference in between expected market returns and interest rates. The determination of market risk premium is one of the most important inputs in the application of the CAPM. This study intends to calculate the market risk premiums and volatilities for the sectors of Borsa Istanbul for the periods of pre-Covid (2016-2017-2018) and in the Covid-19 era (2019-2020-2021). Methodology- The monthly data from the Reuters Database are collected for the BIST100 and 17 different sectoral indexes and short-term interest rates between the years 2016 and 2021. A total of 1296 observations are obtained. Based upon the historical observations, the market risk premiums are defined as the difference between the market index returns (BIST100 and 17 sectoral indexes) and the average short-term interest rates on monthly basis. Then, using the ARIMA forecasting method, the market risk premiums are estimated for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. A total of 576 data points are forecasted. Findings- The average risk premium on the BIST100 index is about -2.44% for the pre-Covid era and 14.01% for in-Covid era. The market risk premiums sharply increased from the pre-Covid period to the Covid period. The average volatility on the BIST100 index is about 0.23% for the pre-Covid era while 0.34% in the Covid era. The volatility of the market returns also incresed significantly. Moreover, the Cusum Square Test results point a structural break in the Covid-era. The ARIMA estimates of market risk premiums are 1.87% for 2022, 0.43% for 2023 and 0.42% for 2024. THe ARIMA estimates of volatilities are 0.70% for 2022, 0.72% for 2023 and 0.71% for 2024. Conclusion- The empirical evidence strongly support a structural change in the Covid era with higher market risk premiums and volatilities. The forecasted market risk premiums for the next three years show a diminishing trend while the forecasted volatilities show high and persistent level.Publisher's Versio

Why invest globally in family firms?

Purpose- Family firms have a significant economic role in many countries around the world. Family firms make a significant contribution to World GDP and employ a significant part of the global workforce. The scope of this study covers the top 25 largest and publicly owned family firms announced by Ernst & Young’s 2021 Report for Family Businesses. These 25 family firms generated more than 2 trillion USD and employed 6.5 million in 2021. This empirical study aims to investigate the excess stock returns of family firms over the related country stock market indexes and the risks (betas) for the period between 2002 and 2021. Therefore, this study explores the question of “why invest globally in family firms and whether this investment pays off with higher returns and less risk”. Methodology- The World's Largest Family Companies" list is published every other two years by Ernst & Young and the last issue was published in 2021. The world’s largest family companies list includes both private and publicly owned family firms. This study employs 25 world’s largest family firms after the exclusion of privately held family firms. The monthly stock prices of family firms, related country stock market index values, and global stock market index values are obtained from Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters) database for the period between 2002 and 2021 (20 years). Therefore, a total of 9120 observations are extracted for this empirical study. Eviews-10 is utilized for all econometric analysis. Findings- This study investigates whether an individual or intuitional investor can earn more than the average return of the stock markets by investing in publicly traded family firms meanwhile exposing less risk. The empricial results reveal that Maersek shows 354% (beta of 1.18) excess return over the 20 year period and followed by Hanwha with a 335% (beta of 0.69) excess return. Later, all family firms are grouped based on country of headquartered and 7 country portfolios are formed. The highest excess returns are provided by South Koean portfolio (an excess return of 189% with a beta of 0.83) and it is followed by Indian portfolio (an excess return of 174% with a beta of 1.0). Finaly, a best performer portfolio is formed by the 10 family firms with highest excess returns. This portfolio provides a 131% excess return with a beta of 1.18 over 20-year peirod. Conclusion- The empirical results show that the individual firm returns and portfolio returns of family firms are higher than the returns of the stock market indexes. Those who invest in family businesses get higher returns with less risk. Investments in publicly traded family firms pay off.Publisher's Versio

Gender differences in risk perception and investment behavior

Purpose- Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. Many results of behavioral finance studies show that men and women have different strengths and weaknesses in terms of skills required for investment management. This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. In other words, the aim of the research is to reveal whether there is a difference in investment preferences between men and women. It is investigated whether the gender factor affects investment decision-making behavior. Using an experimental finance approach, the relationship between gender diversity and investment decisions is examined. Methodology- This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. In accordance with the aim of the research, to reveal whether there is a difference in investment choices between men and women, the investment differences between the genders are shown using the graphic method in this study. Then, the normality test and Mann-Whitney U test were applied by using 288 respondents, respectively. Findings- According to the graphic method results it is found that women generally prefer to invest between 10% and 25% of their monthly income in financial markets. T cryptocurrency market is riskier than the stock market for both women and men. Women experience more stress than men at the thought of losing money because of their investment choices. The Cronbach Alpha coefficient for estimating the reliability of the scale employed for respondents’ investment preference was found to be 0.701. The results of data processing obtained by the value of the Kolmogorov-Simirnov significant which means the data were not normally distributed residuals. According to Mann-Whitney U test results, it is underlined that the gender factor differs according to the following variables based on 95% significance level: Conclusion- Survey with different aspects of questions focus on investors’ risk perception. “How often do you check your investments?”; “What is your approximate holding time of an investment instrument?”; “What percentage of your monthly income would you prefer to invest in financial markets?”; “The thought of losing money because of my investment choices is stressed me out”; “Have you ever invested in Cryptocurrencies?”; “What is the most suitable option for your knowledge of the cryptocurrency market?”. It is concluded that there is a significant difference between gender and investment preference.Publisher's Versio

Market risk premiums in BIST 100 in the Covid era

Purpose- Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most widely used and popular method in analysis of investment projects, stock valuation, firm valuation, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and secondary public offerings. The determination of market risk premium is one of the most important inputs in the application of this model. The determination of market risk premium for the Turkish market has not deeply studied in the literature so far. This study intends to calculate the market risk premium for the Turkish Stock Market with a special emphasis on the Covid-19 era. Methodology- The monthly data from the Reuters Database are collected for the BIST100 and 17 different sectoral indexes for the years of 2019 and 2020. Moreover, the monthly average short term interest rates on the Turkish Treasury Bonds are obtained from the database of Central Bank of Turkey for the years of 2019 and 2020. Based upon the historical observations, the market risk premium is defined as the difference in between the market index returns (BIST100 and 17 sectoral indexes) and the average short term interest rates on monthly basis. Findings- The market risk premiums measured on BIST100 index are about 10% in 2019 and 20% in 2020. The market risk premium is doubled in the Covid era. The volatilities of BIST100 index are 7.86% in 2019 and 8.15% in 2020. The volatility of market risk premiums are also significantly increased in the Covid era. Conclusion- Covid era has significantly increased the market risk premiums and volatilities of the Turkish market. The results of this study may be used as a reference study for local and international financial institutions, valuation industry and trade firms and academics for an approximation of market risk premium in the Covid era.Publisher's Versio

Investment behaviour and risk perception: an analysis for Turkish market

Purpose- The cognitive comprehension of financial indicators, risk aversion, risk perception, and investment behavior is defined as financial literacy. It's possible that a variety of characteristics, such as gender, age, income level, social standing, education, etc., will affect an investor's behavior. The purpose of this study is to highlight the behavior of investors in Turkish capital markets. The analysis is done on the results of two surveys, the first conducted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the second in the first quarter of 2023. Methodology- This study's objective is to highlight investor behavior and risk perception in Turkish financial markets. In the most recent two consecutive quarters, the results of two surveys are analyzed and compared. Three sections comprise the surveys. A demographic question is asked in the first section. The second section asks questions concerning investment behavior, signs of financial stress, and confidence in regard to one's financial literacy. The final aspect contributes to the analysis of what people think of the Bitcoin market. In this study, Graphic analysis, Cronbach Alpha, Normality, and Mann-Whitney U tests are performed, respectively. First, the graphical analysis of the selected questions is made. Based on these graphs, the similarities and differences between the surveys are shown. Second, The reliability test is applied to the selected questions for the statistical modeling of the analysis. This test is determined as the Cronbach Alpha test. Third, the Normality test is applied to reveal which test to use in the next step. Two different tests are used for this analysis. These are the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests. Fourth, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied. At this stage, firstly, Mann-Whitney U and Wilcoxon W test statistics are examined. The ranks are calculated for each variable. Finally, the Mann-Whitney U test is applied, and the results are interpreted. Fifth, The results of the two surveys are compared. Findings- The findings show both similarities and differences among numerous variables. For instance, holding time is defined as the amount of time an investor holds an investment or as the time between purchasing it and selling it. Investors' risk aversion and financial literacy both influence the holding period. Riskier assets force investors to adjust their purchase or sell actions dynamically. The results show various portfolio diversification behaviours. While men prefer to start with foreign currency investments, women are more interested in making gold investments. Also, middle-aged investors invest more in cryptocurrencies and take more risks than younger investors. Conclusion- based upon the analysis, findings it may be concluded that respondents do differ in their investment preferences and risk-taking over the years. The findings show various portfolio diversification behaviors. While men prefer to invest in foreign currency, women are more interested in purchasing gold.Publisher's Versio

Vakıflar İdaresinin Günümüze Ulaştırdığı Bir Ahşap Yapı Keşfi Osman Efendi Tekkesi

[No Abstract Available

Eski ve yeni kırılgan beşli ile BRICS ülkelerinin karşılaştırmalı ekonometrik analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2001-2018 yılları arası dönem için eski kırılgan beşli: BIIST (Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye), yeni kırılgan beşli: AQEPT (Arjantin, Katar, Mısır, Pakistan ve Türkiye) ve BRICS (Brezilya, Rusya Federasyonu, Hindistan, Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti ve Güney Afrika) ülke sınıflamalarına ait gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla büyüme oranınıetkileyen veya etkileyeceği düşünülen değişkenleri karşılaştırmalı bir şekilde ekonometrik olarak analiz etmektir. Çalışmada ilk olarak Panel Veri analizleri yapılmış ve bu doğrultuda üç farklı Panel Veri modeli oluşturulup analiz edilmiştir. Daha sonra Panel Vektör Otoregresyon yönteminden yararlanarak modellere ait analiz sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. Analizlerde kullanılan bağımsız değişkenler dış borç stoku, brüt tasarruf, tüketici fiyat endeksi, işsizlik oranı, cari hesap dengesi, döviz kuru ve merkez bankası rezervleri iken bağımlı değişken GSYH büyüme oranı olarak belirlenmiştir. Panel Veri analizi sonucunda oluşturulan üç modelin rastsal etkiler modeliolduğu belirlenmiş, analizler sonucunda cari hesap dengesi ve enflasyon değişkenlerinin kırılgan olarak sınıflandırılan BIIST ve AQEPT ülkelerinde GSYH büyüme oranı üzerindeki etkisininanlamsız olduğu görülmüştür. Panel Vektör Otoregresyon analizi sonucunda ise BIIST ve BRICS ülkelerine ait modellerde tasarruf oranı ve GSYH büyüme oranı değişkenleri arasında çift yönlübir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda 2017 yılında ilan edilen kırılgan beşli ülkeler sınıflamasının 2013 yılında ilan edilene göre daha doğru bir kırılgan ülkelersınıflaması olduğu söylenebilmektedir.The aim of this study is to econometrically analyze the variables affect or are thought to affect the gross domestic product growth rate of countries the old fragile five (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey), the new fragile five (Qatar, Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries for the period 2001-2018 in a comparative way. In the study, firstly, Panel Data analyzes were made and in this direction, three different panel data models were created and analyzed. Then, the analysis results of the models were compared by using the Panel Vector Autoregression method. In Analyzes, GDP growth rate was taken as the dependent variable. The independent variables used in the analysis were external debt stock, gross savings, inflation rate, unemployment rate, current account balance, exchange rate and reserves of Central Bank. As a result of the Panel Data analysis, all three models were found to be random effect models and the effects of current account balance and inflation variables on GDP growth rate in BIIST and AQEPT countries, which are classifiedas fragile, were found to be insignificant. As a result of the Panel Vector Autoregression analysis, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the saving rate andGDP growth rate variables in the models of BIIST and BRICS countries. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the fragile five countries classification announced in 2017 is amore accurate fragile countries classification than the one announced in 2013

A Journey in Search of Lost Historical Buildings

[No Abstract Available