A multi-wavelength analysis of active regions and sunspots by comparison of automatic detection algorithms

YesThe launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in early 2010 has provided the solar physics community with the most detailed view of the Sun to date. However, this presents new challenges for the analysis of solar data. Currently, SDO sends over 1 terabyte of data per day back to Earth and methods for fast and reliable analysis are more important than ever. This article details four algorithms developed separately at the Universities of Bradford and Glasgow, the Royal Observatory of Belgium and Trinity College Dublin for the purposes of automated detection of solar active regions (ARs) and sunspots at different levels of the solar atmosphere

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather’s prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model’s input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ‘‘Improvement of operational models’’ of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ‘‘Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe’’ and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action

Heliophysics Discovery Tools for the 21st Century: Data Science and Machine Learning Structures and Recommendations for 2020-2050

Three main points: 1. Data Science (DS) will be increasingly important to heliophysics; 2. Methods of heliophysics science discovery will continually evolve, requiring the use of learning technologies [e.g., machine learning (ML)] that are applied rigorously and that are capable of supporting discovery; and 3. To grow with the pace of data, technology, and workforce changes, heliophysics requires a new approach to the representation of knowledge.Comment: 4 pages; Heliophysics 2050 White Pape

A comparison of flare forecasting methods. II. Benchmarks, metrics and performance results for operational solar flare forecasting systems

YesSolar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al. 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to – for the first time – directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared

A data-driven HAAR-FISZ transform for multiscale variance stabilization

We propose a data-driven Haar Fisz transform (DDHFT): a fast, fully automatic, multiscale technique for approximately Gaussianising and stabilizing the variance of sequences of non-negative independent random variables whose variance is a non-decreasing (but otherwise unknown) function of the mean. We demonstrate the excellent performance of the DDHFT on Poisson data. We then use the DDHFT to denoise a solar irradiance time series recorded by the X-ray radiometer on board the GOES satellite: as the noise distribution is unknown, we first take the DDHFT, then use a standard wavelet technique for homogeneous Gaussian data, and then take the inverse DDHFT. The procedure is shown to significantly outperform its competitor

Estimation of nonlinear autoregressive models using design-adapted wavelets

We estimate nonlinear autoregressive models using a design-adapted wavelet estimator. We show two properties of the wavelet transform adapted to an autoregressive design. First, in an asymptotic setup, we derive the order of the threshold that removes all the noise with a probability tending to one asymptotically. Second, with this threshold, we estimate the detail coefficients by soft- thresholding the empirical detail coefficients. We show an upper bound on the l(2)-risk of these soft- thresholded detail coefficients. Finally, we illustrate the behavior of this design-adapted wavelet estimator on simulated and real data sets