The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.foreign exchange; predictability; global imbalances; fundamentals.

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value

This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000a) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (ii) more importantly, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.Interest rates

The use of ultrasound in clinical setting for children affected by NAFLD. is it safe and accurate?

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become over the last decade the most common form of chronic liver disease in children and adults. Thus, establishing the diagnosis of NAFLD is of utmost importance and represents a major challenge as the disease is generally silent and the current gold standard for diagnosis is an invasive liver biopsy, a procedure that is not suitable for screening purposes. Many non-invasive diagnostic tools have been evaluated so far. Recently the utility of ultrasonography for non-invasive diagnosis and estimation of hepatic steatosis has been demonstrated in a large prospective pediatric study

Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability

© 2016. We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium-the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility-reflects the costs of insuring against currency volatility fluctuations. The strategy sells high insurance-cost currencies and buys low insurance-cost currencies. A distinctive feature of the strategy's returns is that they are mainly generated by movements in spot exchange rates instead of interest rate differentials. We explore explanations for the profitability of the strategy, which cannot be understood using traditional risk factors

The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value

This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000a) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (ii) more importantly, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant

Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk

We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads. An increase in a country’s CDS spread is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its exchange rate as well as an increase of its currency volatility and crash risk. The link between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by exposure to global sovereign risk shocks and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. Sovereign risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates, volatility and skewness, and is strongly priced in the cross-section of currencies. Moreover, we find that sovereign risk accounts for a large share of carry trade returns, and that carry and momentum strategies generate high (low) returns across countries with high (low) sovereign risk

Exchange rates and sovereign risk

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.Christian Wagner acknowledges support from the Center for Financial Frictions (FRIC), grant no. DNRF10

Paediatric non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: impact on patients and mothers' quality of life

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the causes of fatty liver in adults and is currently the primary form of chronic liver disease in children and adolescents. However, the psychological outcome (i.e. the behavioural problems that can in turn be related to psychiatric conditions, like anxiety and mood disorders, or lower quality of life) in children and adolescents suffering of NAFLD has not been extensively explored in the literature. Objectives: The present study aims at evaluating the emotional and behavioural profile in children suffering from NAFLD and the quality of life in their mothers. Patients and Methods: A total of 57 children (18 females/39 males) with NAFLD were compared to 39 age-matched control children (25 females/14 males). All participants were submitted to the following psychological tools to assess behavior, mood, and anxiety: the Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children (MASC), the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), and the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI). Moreover, the mothers of 40 NAFLD and 39 control children completed the World Health Organization Quality of Life-BREF (WHOQOL-BREF) questionnaire. Results: NAFLD children scored significantly higher as compared to control children in MASC (P = 0.001) and CDI total (P < 0.001) scales. The CBCL also revealed significantly higher scores for NAFLD children in total problems (P = 0.046), internalizing symptoms (P = 0.000) and somatic complaints (P < 0.001). The WHOQOL-BREF revealed significantly lower scores for the mothers of NAFLD children in the overall perception of the quality of life (P < 0.001), and in the "relationships" domain (P = 0.023). Conclusions: Increased emotional and behavioural problems were detected in children with NAFLD as compared to healthy control children, together with an overall decrease in their mothers' quality of life. These results support the idea that these patients may benefit from a psychological intervention, ideally involving both children and parents, whose quality of life is likely negatively affected by this disease

Virtual reality and live scenario simulation: options for training medical students in mass casualty incident triage

Introduction Multicasualty triage is the process of establishing the priority of care among casualties in disaster management. Recent mass casualty incidents (MCI) revealed that health personnel are unfamiliar with the triage protocols. The objective of this study is to compare the relative impact of two simulation-based methods for training medical students in mass casualty triage using the Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment (START) algorithm. Methods A prospective randomized controlled longitudinal study. Medical students enrolled in the emergency medicine course were randomized into two groups (A and B). On day 1, group A students were exposed to a virtual reality (VR) scenario and group B students were exposed to a live scenario (LS), both exercises aiming at triaging 10 victims in a limited period of time (30 seconds/victim). On day 2 all students attended a 2-hour lecture about medical disaster management and START. On day 3 group A and B students were exposed to a LS and to a VR scenario respectively. The vital signs and clinical condition of the 10 victims were identical in the two scenarios. Ability of the groups to manage a simulated triage scenario was then compared (times and triage accuracy). Results Groups A and B were composed of 25 and 28 students respectively. During day 1 group A LS triage accuracy was 58%, while the average time to assess all patients was 4 minutes 28 seconds. The group B VR scenario triage accuracy was 52%, while the average time to complete the assessment was 5 minutes 18 seconds. During day 3 the triage accuracy for group A VR simulation was 92%, while the average time was 3 minutes 53 seconds. Group B triage accuracy during the LS was 84%, with an average time of 3 minutes 25 seconds. Triage scores improved significantly during day 3 (P < 0.001) in the two groups. The time to complete each scenario decreased significantly from day 1 to day 3. Conclusions The study demonstrates that the training course generates significant improvement in triage accuracy and speed. It also reveals that VR simulation compared to live exercises has equivalent results in prompting critical decisions in mass casualty drills. In the beginning the average time to complete the VR scenario was higher than the LS. This could be due to the fact that on day 1 very detailed VR victims created a higher challenge for untaught students. However, the higher triage accuracy recorded at the end of day 3 in VR could be explained by a lower stress level compared to the LS, which could be creating a more stressful environment in taught students

Divanadium Pentoxide/4H-silicon Carbide: A Schottky Contact for Highly Linear Temperature Sensors

Abstract A new temperature sensor based on a divanadium pentoxide/4H-silicon carbide (V2O5/4H-SiC) Schottky diode is presented. The realized device shows a good linear dependence vs. temperature of the voltage drop measured across the forward-biased junction. The diode performance, i.e. linearity and sensitivity, were analyzed in the temperature range from 147 K up to 400 K. Moreover, fundamental diode parameters were extracted from current-voltage characteristics