Simulating Rural Environmentally and Socio-Economically Constrained Multi-Activity and Multi-Decision Societies in a Low-Data Context: A Challenge Through Empirical Agent-Based Modeling

Development issues in developing countries belong to complex situations where society and environment are intricate. However, such sites lack the necessary amount of reliable, checkable data and information, while these very constraining factors determine the populations' evolutions, such as villagers living in Sahelian environments. Beyond a game-theory model that leads to a premature selection of the relevant variables, we build an individual-centered, empirical, KIDS-oriented (Keep It Descriptive & Simple), and multidisciplinary agent-based model focusing on the villagers\' differential accesses to economic and production activities according to social rules and norms, mainly driven by social criteria from which gender and rank within the family are the most important, as they were observed and registered during individual interviews. The purpose of the work is to build a valid and robust model that overcome this lack of data by building a individual specific system of behaviour rules conditioning these differential accesses showing the long-term catalytic effects of small changes of social rules. The model-building methodology is thereby crucial: the interviewing process provided the behaviour rules and criteria while the context, i.e. the economic, demographic and agro-ecological environment is described following published or unpublished literature. Thanks to a sensitivity analysis on several selected parameters, the model appears fairly robust and sensitive enough. The confidence building simulation outputs reasonably reproduces the dynamics of local situations and is consistent with three authors having investigated in our site. Thanks to its empirical approach and its balanced conception between sociology and agro-ecology at the relevant scale, i.e. the individual tied to social relations, limitations and obligations and connected with his/her biophysical and economic environment, the model can be considered as an efficient "trend provider" but not an absolute "figure provider" for simulating rural societies of the Nigrien Sahel and testing scenarios on the same context. Such ABMs can be a useful interface to analyze social stakes in development projects.Rule-Based Modelling, Rural Sahel, Confidence Building, Low-Data Context, Social Criteria

Methodological issues raised from the coverage survey of the MSF nutritional programme. Madarounfa and Guidan Roumdji, Maradi region, Niger 2006.

Abstract Poster - Congress: Surveying Health in Complex Situations; Brussels; June 2007

Les approches de l'économie sociale et de l'économie solidaire face aux mutuelles de santé en Afrique

Ce papier examine dans quelle mesure les approches "économie sociale" et "économie solidaire" peuvent éclairer les réalités des mutuelles de santé en Afrique, mais aussi leurs limites respectives face à ces pratiques de plus en plus répandues

El enfoque EMES de la empresa social desde una perspectiva comparada

Peer reviewe

Images and Concepts of the Third Sector in Europe

Peer reviewe

Benchmarking humanitarian support : empirical agent-based modeling of development action types in Nigerian villages

International audienceThe purpose of this article is to simulate and analyze the impacts of development interventions on the population of three different sites in Sahelian millet-cropping Niger (Sahelian Africa), taking account the differentiation of social and agro-ecological constraints on the different types of villagers. The work is based on a previous article (Saqalli, 2006), which has shown that using an individual Agent-based model (ABM) is a relevant approach to integrate agro-ecological, social and economic characteristics of a system and that family internal rules have strong impacts on village and environment evolutions. Two development project interventions are simulated in a context of no land scarcity: inorganic fertilizers availability for farmers and an inventory credit technique based on millet yields that some villagers may choose to use. Two rationalities are tested, one upon economic values and the second upon the intra-village "reputation" gains. Our results illustrate that a village cannot be considered as a whole and project operators must take in account the precise target population rather than all adult villagers. Project involvements concern only sites where savings for securization or intensification are possible: These proposals need actually some food security and investment capacities that are largely conditioned by family manpower and size. Inorganic fertilizers have little success without any intensification process in a context of good land availability. Inventory credit intervention engages a maximum of 25% of the population in the site with medium agro-ecological conditions. Reputation has little effect on the population behavior and should be considered more as a local wealth estimation factor between villagers. Therefore, one should consider these proposals as a potential support tool for a limited part of the population capable to go beyond the survival level,but not as a global poverty-alleviation panacea

Targeting rural development interventions : empirical agent-based modeling in Nigerien villages

International audienceThe aim of this article is to analyze the impact of development interventions on the population of three Nigerien villages that differ in terms of their agro-ecological, social and economic characteristics. This is performed by simulating the behavior of individuals in an agent-based modeling framework which integrates the village characteristics as well as the family internal rules that condition access to economic and production activities. Villagers are differentiated according to the social and agro-ecological constraints they are subjected to. Two development project interventions are simulated, assuming no land scarcity: increasing the availability of inorganic fertilizers for farmers and an inventory credit technique based on millet grain. Two distinct approaches were used to model the rationale of farmers' decision making: gains or losses in economic value or gains or losses in within-village ''reputation''. Our results show that village populations do not respond en masse to development interventions. Reputation has little effect on the population behavior and should be considered more as a local proxy for wealth amongst villagers, suggesting the monetization of these societies. Populations involve themselves in the two simulated development interventions only at sites where savings are possible. Some level of household food security and investment capacity is actually required to take part in the development interventions, which are largely conditioned by family manpower and size. As long as uncultivated land remains available in the village territory, support for inorganic fertilizers has little impact in the absence of any intensification process. Inventory credit engages a maximum of 25% of the population at the site with medium agro-ecological conditions. Therefore, both interventions should be viewed as a potential support tool for a limited part of the population capable of going beyond the survival level, but not as a generic poverty-alleviation panacea

Optimal Information Blending with Measurements in the L2 Sphere

manuscript (Please, provide the mansucript number!) Authors are encouraged to submit new papers to INFORMS journals by means of a style file template, which includes the journal title. However, use of a template does not certify that the paper has been accepted for publication in the named journal. INFORMS journal templates are for the exclusive purpose of submitting to an INFORMS journal and should not be used to distribute the papers in print or online or to submit the papers to another publication

Testing Social-driven Forces on the Evolution of Sahelian Rural Systems: A Combined Agent-based Modeling and Anthropological Approach

International audienceThis article presents the results of a methodology combining an extensive fieldwork, a formalization of field-based individual rules and norms into an agent-based model and the implementation of scenarios analyzing the effects of social and agro-ecological constraints on rural farmers through the study of three different sites in Nigerien Sahel. Two family transition processes are here tested, following field observations and literature-based hypotheses: family organizations can evolve between a patriarchal mode and a non-cooperative one because of family income redistribution tensions. Family inheritance systems can shift between a "customary" mode and a "local Muslim" one through family land availability tensions. Our results show that both agro-ecological and socio-economic characteristics determine the simulated family type distribution and consequently the allocation of resources. Results from simulations with no evolution processes show that villages specialize themselves on different economic activities according to natural resources: An intensification gradient is observed from the most favored site, with more local productions and improved ecological indicators, to the less-favored one, with a growing proportion of the population wealth coming from migration remittances and "off-shore" livestock. Once introducing such processes, the differentiation also occurs within the population level, subdividing it into specializing groups according to their size, their assets and their social status. Emerging individualistic family types increase the village populations' robustness through different and site-specific evolutions