An improved test for earnings management using kernel density estimation

This paper describes improvements on methods developed by Burgstahler and Dichev (1997, Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24(1), pp. 99–126) and Bollen and Pool (2009, Do hedge fund managers misreport returns? Evidence from the pooled distribution, Journal of Finance, 64(5), pp. 2257–2288) to test for earnings management by identifying discontinuities in distributions of scaled earnings or earnings forecast errors. While existing methods use preselected bandwidths for kernel density estimation and histogram construction, the proposed test procedure addresses the key problem of bandwidth selection by using a bootstrap test to endogenise the selection step. The main advantage offered by the bootstrap procedure over prior methods is that it provides a reference distribution that cannot be globally distinguished from the empirical distribution rather than assuming a correct reference distribution. This procedure limits the researcher's degrees of freedom and offers a simple procedure to find and test a local discontinuity. I apply the bootstrap density estimation to earnings, earnings changes, and earnings forecast errors in US firms over the period 1976–2010. Significance levels found in earlier studies are greatly reduced, often to insignificant values. Discontinuities cannot be detected in analysts’ forecast errors, while such findings of discontinuities in earlier research can be explained by a simple rounding mechanism. Earnings data show a large drop in loss aversion after 2003 that cannot be detected in changes of earnings

Return Predictability: The Dual Signaling Hypothesis of Stock Splits

This paper aims to differentiate between optimistic splits and overoptimistic/opportunistic splits. Although markets do not distinguish between these two groups at the split announcement time, optimistic (over-optimistic/opportunistic) splits precede positive (negative) long-term buy-and-hold abnormal returns. Using the calendar month portfolio approach, we show that the zero-investment, ex-ante identifiable, and fully implementable trading strategy proposed in this paper can generate economically and statistically significant positive abnormal returns. Our findings indicate that pre-split earnings management and how it relates to managers’ incentives, is an omitted variable in the studies of post-split long-term abnormal returns

Where do firms manage earnings?

Despite decades of research on how, why, and when companies manage earnings, there is a paucity of evidence about the geographic location of earnings management within multinational firms. In this study, we examine where companies manage earnings using a sample of 2,067 U.S. multinational firms from 1994 to 2009. We predict and find that firms with extensive foreign operations in weak rule of law countries have more foreign earnings management than companies with subsidiaries in locations where the rule of law is strong. We also find some evidence that profitable firms with extensive tax haven subsidiaries manage earnings more than other firms and that the earnings management is concentrated in foreign income. Apart from these results, we find that most earnings management takes place in domestic income, not foreign income.Arthur Andersen (Firm) (Arthur Andersen Faculty Fund

Media Attention and Event-Based Grouping of Stocks: An Examination of Stocks Hyped by Media Outlets as Benefiting from the Olympics

We examine five summer Olympics and identify stocks that media outlets hype as benefiting from the Olympics (Olympic stocks). There is a seven-year period from the time that a country first learns it has won the Olympic bid to the start of the games (Olympic time period). We predict that the excitement of the Olympics along with the greater media attention impacts the valuation and risk of Olympic stocks. Consistent with this prediction, we show that Olympic stocks earn higher returns than their matched counterparts and comove more strongly with each other over the Olympic time period. Olympic stocks also exhibit increases in trading volume and stock volatility on days when media outlets have stories linking the firm to the Olympic Games. However, we find no evidence that the Olympic Games translate into stronger fundamentals for Olympic firms or stronger fundamental co-movements. These findings suggest that investors are not purchasing the stocks based on an analysis of fundamentals, but are purchasing them based on their Olympic attribute. To confirm that event-based groupings occur in other settings, we show that co-movement increases for stocks classified by the media as “stay-at-home” stocks at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper was accepted by Eric So, accounting. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at [https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02218](https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02218

The growth companies puzzle: can growth opportunities measures predict firm growth?

While numerous empirical studies include proxies for growth opportunities in their analyses, there is limited evidence as to the validity of the various growth proxies used. Based on a sample of 1942 firm-years for listed UK companies over the 1990-2004 period, we assess the performance of eight growth opportunities measures. Our results show that while all the growth measures show some ability to predict growth in company sales, total assets, or equity, there are substantial differences between the various models. In particular, Tobin's Q performs poorly while dividend-based measures generally perform best. However, none of the measures has any success in predicting earnings per share growth, even when controlling for mean reversion and other time-series patterns in earnings. We term this the 'growth companies puzzle'. Growth companies do grow, but they do not grow in the key dimension (earnings) theory predicts. Whether the failure of 'growth companies' to deliver superior earnings growth is attributable to increased competition, poor investments, or behavioural biases, it is still a puzzle why growth companies on average fail to deliver superior earnings growth

Does relative efficiency matter? An analysis of market uncertainty

In this paper, we examine whether relative efficiency provides useful information for investment decisions. We find that efficient firms have lower levels of stock price volatility compared to inefficient firms. The results suggest that market participants consider relative efficiency when making investment decisions. This finding is consistent with investors speculating in inefficient firms due to potential stock return opportunities that increase the uncertainty levels of inefficient firms. Next, we test whether higher levels of investment and disinvestment in inefficient firms are due to potential investment opportunities. We find a positive relation between stock price volatility and market returns. Moreover, we find a negative relation between stock returns and relative efficiency. These findings show that inefficient firms provide high-risk, high-return potential investment opportunities; and efficient firms can be considered low-risk, low-return investment opportunities

Earnings Management: The Effect of Ex Ante Earnings Expectations

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Review: Perspective on high-performing dairy cows and herds

Milk and dairy products provide highly sustainable concentrations of essential amino acids and other required nutrients for humans; however, amount of milk currently produced per dairy cow globally is inadequate to meet future needs. Higher performing dairy cows and herds produce more milk with less environmental impact per kg than lower performing cows and herds. In 2018, 15.4% of the world\u27s dairy cows produced 45.4% of the world\u27s dairy cow milk, reflecting the global contribution of high-performing cows and herds. In high-performing herds, genomic evaluations are utilized for multiple trait selection, welfare is monitored by remote sensing, rations are formulated at micronutrient levels, health care is focused on prevention and reproduction is managed with precision. Higher performing herds require more inputs and generate more waste products per cow, thus innovations in environmental management on such farms are essential for lowering environmental impacts. Our focus is to provide perspectives on technologies and practices that contribute most to sustainable production of milk from high-performing dairy cows and herds