Live-birth rate associated with repeat in vitro fertilization treatment cycles

© 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Importance The likelihood of achieving a live birth with repeat in vitro fertilization (IVF) is unclear, yet treatment is commonly limited to 3 or 4 embryo transfers. Objective To determine the live-birth rate per initiated ovarian stimulation IVF cycle and with repeated cycles. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective study of 156 947 UKwomen who received 257 398 IVF ovarian stimulation cycles between 2003 and 2010 and were followed up until June 2012. Exposures In vitro fertilization, with a cycle defined as an episode of ovarian stimulation and all subsequent separate fresh and frozen embryo transfers. Main Outcomes and Measures Live-birth rate per IVF cycle and the cumulative live-birth rates across all cycles in all women and by age and treatment type. Optimal, prognosis-adjusted, and conservative cumulative live-birth rates were estimated, reflecting 0%, 30%, and 100%, respectively, of women who discontinued due to poor prognosis and having a live-birth rate of 0 had they continued. Results Among the 156 947 women, the median age at start of treatment was 35 years (interquartile range, 32-38; range, 18-55), and the median duration of infertility for all 257 398 cycles was 4 years (interquartile range, 2-6; range

Physical activity is prospectively associated with adolescent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to assess whether objectively measured physical activity at mean ages 12 and 14 years are prospectively associated with ultrasound scan liver fat and stiffness (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase [AST], and [gamma]-glutamyl transferase [GGT]) assessed at mean age 17.8 years. Methods: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Total physical activity (counts per minute) and minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using ActiGraph accelerometers at mean ages 12 and 14 years. Results: Greater total physical activity and MVPA at ages 12 and 14 years were associated with lower odds of liver fat and lower GGT levels at mean age 17.8 years, such as per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the confounder adjusted odds ratio of liver fat was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27–0.84). Associations attenuated after additional adjustment for fat mass as a potential confounder (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years, the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.65 [95% CI 0.35–1.21]) or a potential mediator (eg, per 15-minute increase in daily MVPA at age 12 years the odds ratio of liver fat attenuated to 0.59 [95% CI 0.32–1.09]). Results did not further attenuate after additional adjustment for insulin resistance. There was some evidence that greater total physical activity and MVPA at age 12 years were associated with the higher AST levels. Conclusions: Adolescents who were more active in childhood have lower odds of fatty liver and lower GGT levels. These findings are likely to be, at least in part, explained by adiposity

Weight trajectories through infancy and childhood and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescence: the ALSPAC study

Background and Aims: Adiposity is a key risk factor for NAFLD. Few studies have examined prospective associations of infant and childhood adiposity with subsequent NAFLD risk. We examined associations of weight-for-height trajectories from birth to age 10 with liver outcomes in adolescence, and assessed the extent to which associations are mediated through fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.<p></p> Methods: Individual trajectories of weight and height were estimated for participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using random-effects linear-spline models. Associations of birthweight (adjusted for birth length) and weight change (adjusted for length/height change) from 0–3 months, 3 months–1 y, 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y with ultrasound scan (USS) determined liver fat and stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) at mean age 17.8 y were assessed with linear and logistic regressions. Mediation by concurrent fat mass was assessed with adjustment for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y.<p></p> Results: Birth weight was positively associated with liver stiffness and negatively with ALT and AST. Weight change from birth to 1 y was not associated with outcomes. Weight change from 1–3 y, 3–7 y, and 7–10 y was consistently positively associated with USS and blood-based liver outcomes. Adjusting for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y attenuated associations toward the null, suggesting associations are largely mediated by concurrent body fatness.<p></p> Conclusions: Greater rates of weight-for-height change between 1 y and 10 y are consistently associated with adverse liver outcomes in adolescence. These associations are largely mediated through concurrent fatness

A structured approach to hypotheses involving continuous exposures over the life course

© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association. Background: Epidemiologists are often interested in examining different hypotheses for how exposures measured repeatedly over the life course relate to later-life outcomes. A structured approach for selecting the hypotheses most supported by theory and observed data has been developed for binary exposures. The aim of this paper is to extend this to include continuous exposures and allow for confounding and missing data. Methods: We studied two examples, the association between: (i) maternal weight during pregnancy and birthweight; and (ii) stressful family events throughout childhood and depression in adolescence. In each example we considered several plausible hypotheses including accumulation, critical periods, sensitive periods, change and effect modification. We used least angle regression to select the hypothesis that explained the most variation in the outcome, demonstrating appropriate methods for adjusting for confounders and dealing with missing data. Results: The structured approach identified a combination of sensitive periods: pre-pregnancy weight, and gestational weight gain 0-20 weeks and 20-40 weeks, as the best explanation for variation in birthweight after adjusting for maternal height. A sensitive period hypothesis best explained variation in adolescent depression, with the association strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events. For each example, these models have theoretical support at least as strong as any competing hypothesis. Conclusions: We have extended the structured approach to incorporate continuous exposures, confounding and missing data. This approach can be used in either an exploratory or a confirmatory setting. The interpretation, plausibility and consistency with causal assumptions should all be considered when proposing and choosing life course hypotheses

Physical activity phenotyping with activity bigrams, and their association with BMI

ABSTRACTBackgroundAnalysis of physical activity usually focuses on a small number of summary statistics derived from accelerometer recordings: average counts per minute, and the proportion of time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity or in sedentary behaviour. We show how bigrams, a concept from the field of text mining, can be used to describe how a person’s activity levels change across (brief) time points. These variables can, for instance, differentiate between two people with the same time in moderate activity, where one person often stays in moderate activity from one moment to the next and the other does not.MethodsWe use data on 4810 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We generate a profile of bigram frequencies for each participant and test the association of each frequency with body mass index (BMI), as an exemplar.ResultsWe found several associations between changes in bigram frequencies and BMI. For instance, a 1 standard deviation decrease in the number of adjacent minutes in sedentary then moderate activity (or vice versa), with a corresponding increase in the number of adjacent minutes in moderate then vigorous activity (or vice versa), was associated with a 2.36 kg/m2lower BMI [95% CI: -3.47, -1.26], after accounting for the time spent at sedentary, low, moderate and vigorous activity.ConclusionsActivity bigrams are novel variables that capture how a person’s activity changes from one moment to the next. These variables can be used to investigate how sequential activity patterns associate with other traits.Key MessagesEpidemiologists typically use only a small number of variables to analyse the association of physical activity with other traits, such as the average counts per minute and the proportion of time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity or being sedentary.We demonstrate how activity bigrams can be used as a set of interpretable variables describing how a person’s activity levels change from one moment to the next.Testing the association of activity bigrams with exposures or outcomes can help us gain further understanding of how physical activity is associated with other traits; with further research they might provide evidence for more refined public health advice.</jats:sec

Locus of Control and Negative Cognitive Styles in Adolescence as Risk Factors for Depression Onset in Young Adulthood:Findings From a Prospective Birth Cohort Study

Whilst previous observational studies have linked negative thought processes such as an external locus of control and holding negative cognitive styles with depression, the directionality of these associations and the potential role that these factors play in the transition to adulthood and parenthood has not yet been investigated. This study examined the association between locus of control and negative cognitive styles in adolescence and probable depression in young adulthood and whether parenthood moderated these associations. Using a UK prospective population-based birth cohort study: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we examined the association between external locus of control and negative cognitive styles in adolescence with odds of depression in 4,301 young adults using logistic regression models unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounding factors. Interaction terms were employed to examine whether parenthood (i.e., having become a parent or not) moderated these associations. Over 20% of young adults in our sample were at or above the clinical threshold indicating probable depression. For each standard deviation (SD) increase in external locus of control in adolescence, there was a 19% (95% CI: 8–32%) higher odds of having probable depression in young adulthood, after adjusting for various confounding factors including baseline mood and different demographic and life events variables. Similarly, for each SD increase in negative cognitive styles in adolescence, there was a 29% (95% CI: 16–44%) higher odds of having probable depression in the adjusted model. We found little evidence that parenthood status moderated the relationship between external locus of control or negative cognitive styles in adolescence and probable depression following adjustment for confounding factors. Effect estimates were comparable when performed in the complete case dataset. These findings suggest that having an external locus of control and holding negative cognitive styles in mid- to late adolescence is associated with an increased likelihood of probable depression in young adulthood

Socioeconomic differences in childhood length/height trajectories in a middle-income country: a cohort study:a cohort study

Published: 8 September 2014Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with shorter adult stature. Few studies have examined socioeconomic differences in stature from birth to childhood and the mechanisms involved, particularly in middle-income former Soviet settings.The sample included 12,463 Belarusian children (73% of the original cohort) born in 1996-1997, with up to 14 stature measurements from birth to 7 years. Linear spline multi-level models with 3 knots at 3, 12 and 34 months were used to analyse birth length and growth velocity during four age-periods by parental educational achievement (up to secondary school, advanced secondary/partial university, completed university) and occupation (manual, non-manual).Girls born to the most (versus least) educated mothers were 0.43 cm (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28, 0.58) longer at birth; for boys, the corresponding difference was 0.30 cm (95% CI: 0.15, 0.46). Similarly, children of the most educated mothers grew faster from birth-3 months and 12-34 months (p-values for trend ≤ 0.08), such that, by age 7 years, girls with the most (versus least) educated mothers were 1.92 cm (95% CI: 1.47, 2.36) taller; after controlling for urban/rural and East/West area of residence, this difference remained at 1.86 cm (95% CI: 1.42, 2.31), but after additionally controlling for mid-parental height, attenuated to 1.10 cm (95% CI: 0.69, 1.52). Among boys, these differences were 1.95 cm (95% CI: 1.53, 2.37), 1.89 cm (95% CI: 1.47, 2.31) and 1.16 cm (95% CI: 0.77, 1.55), respectively. Additionally controlling for breastfeeding, maternal smoking and older siblings did not substantively alter these findings. There was no evidence that the association of maternal educational attainment with growth differed in girls compared to boys (p for interaction = 0.45). Results were similar for those born to the most (versus least) educated fathers, or who had a parent with a non-manual (versus manual) occupation.In Belarus, a middle-income former Soviet country, socioeconomic differences in offspring growth commence in the pre-natal period and generate up to approximately 2 cm difference in height at age 7 years. These associations are partly explained by genetic or other factors influencing parental stature.Current Controlled Trials: NCT01352247 assigned 9 Sept 2005; ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier: NCT01561612 received 20 Mar 2012.Rita Patel, Kate Tilling, Debbie A Lawlor, Laura D Howe, Natalia Bogdanovich, Lidia Matush, Emily Nicoli, Michael S Kramer and Richard M Marti

Sensitivity analysis for the effects of multiple unmeasured confounders

PURPOSE: Observational studies are prone to (unmeasured) confounding. Sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding typically focuses on a single unmeasured confounder. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of multiple (possibly weak) unmeasured confounders. METHODS: Simulation studies were performed based on parameters estimated from the British Women's Heart and Health Study, including 28 measured confounders and assuming no effect of ascorbic acid intake on mortality. In addition, 25, 50, or 100 unmeasured confounders were simulated, with various mutual correlations and correlations with measured confounders. RESULTS: The correlated unmeasured confounders did not need to be strongly associated with exposure and outcome to substantially bias the exposure-outcome association at interest, provided that there are sufficiently many unmeasured confounders. Correlations between unmeasured confounders, in addition to the strength of their relationship with exposure and outcome, are key drivers of the magnitude of unmeasured confounding and should be considered in sensitivity analyses. However, if the unmeasured confounders are correlated with measured confounders, the bias yielded by unmeasured confounders is partly removed through adjustment for the measured confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Discussions of the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies, and sensitivity analyses to examine this, should focus on the potential for the joint effect of multiple unmeasured confounders to bias results